Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Decline From Week 2

September 23, 2020

Eli Grabanski analyzes impressive offensive performances from Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season to find teams that will decline or regress at RB, WR, and TE for fantasy football purposes based on playcalling tendencies and historical data.

This series carries over from last week, where I dived into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value. After much research, I've developed a broad knowledge of how each team's play-caller historically operates and compiled data to help make informed decisions throughout the regular season as well.

After a crazy Week 2 where we saw performances of Browns running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt running wild and taking 32 carries for 210 rushing yards, the Cowboys wide receivers getting 292 receiving yards, and the Chargers running backs getting 39 carries, it's important to look at their play-caller's history and see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

Now, let's dive into the performances that are in for regression based on a play-caller's previous history!

Negative Regression Coming

These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team play-caller's tendencies in the past.

Chargers RB Room (Carries)

The Chargers' running backs, Joshua Kelley and Austin Ekeler, combined for 39 carries versus the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. This put the team's running backs at 72 carries on the year and on pace for 576 RB carries for the year. Considering this would be a historic pace and the season-high for running back carries for an Anthony Lynn RB room is 375 (23.44 per game) back in 2017, it's more likely that regression in the carries department is incoming in the next few weeks.

Fantasy players this impacts: Joshua Kelley, Austin Ekeler, and Justin Jackson

Bills WR Room

The Bills' WR room had 20 receptions on 28 targets for 358 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns in Week 2. They have now caught 43 passes on 59 targets for 605 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns on the year, putting their season per-game averages at 21.5 receptions on 29.5 targets for 302.5 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's wide receiver room has averaged 18.01 targets, 123.60 receiving yards, and 0.54 receiving touchdowns per game over the course of his six seasons (96 games) prior to this year. With Josh Allen's improvement, there's a good chance that we will see the highest numbers out of Brian Daboll's WR room to date, but this production out of the WR room is unsustainable over the course of a full NFL season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley

Packers RB Room (Run Game)

The Green Bay Packers' running backs took 31 carries for 248 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns last week against the Detroit Lions. On the year, they've taken 59 carries for 387 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. This means that they've averaged 29.5 carries, 193.5 rushing yards, and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Matt LaFleur's running back room has averaged 22.60 carries, 99.54 rushing yards, and 0.94 rushing touchdowns per game. So while LaFleur is a pretty good coach for running backs, this pace in carries and rushing yards is not in line with his previous history as a play-caller, and we should expect regression.

Fantasy players this impacts: Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and A.J. Dillon

Running High, But Might Be Legit

These are the performances that could be outliers, but based on their coach's previous success/utilization of the position, could just be career years.

Cowboys WR Room (Receiving Yards)

The Dallas Cowboys' wide receivers put up 292 receiving yards in an amazing come from behind victory against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2. On the year (2 games), they have caught 34 passes on 50 targets for 482 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. The WR targets would be the higher end of Mike McCarthy's history (in 2016 his WR room averaged 25.44 targets per game), but still doable. And offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's WR room averaged 22.31 targets per game last year, so there's a high chance the target pace can be maintained with such a talented WR room.

My concern comes with the receiving yards. The Dallas Cowboys' wide receivers are averaging 241 receiving yards per game. Considering offensive coordinator Kellen Moore directed one of the best offenses in the league last year and his WR room averaged 217.19 receiving yards per game, along with Mike McCarthy topping out at 229.19 receiving yards per game back in 2011 for the Green Bay Packers, it seems likely some regression is in place.

Fantasy players this impacts: Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb

Steelers WR Room

The Steelers' wide receivers combined for 21 receptions on 29 targets for 250 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns against the Broncos last Sunday. The group now has 34 receptions on 45 targets for 427 receiving yards and five touchdowns on the year (on a per-game basis, that's 17 receptions on 22.5 targets for 213.5 receiving yards, and 2.5 receiving touchdowns). Prior to this year, Randy Fichtner's WR room had averaged 23.25 targets, 170.88 receiving yards, and 1.09 receiving touchdowns over the course of the 2018 and 2019 NFL seasons.

In addition, in 2018, Randy Fichtner's offense with Ben Roethlisberger had the WR room average 27.81 targets, 206.38 receiving yards, and 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game. This shows that while this WR room is running on the higher end of its production, in particular with regards to receiving touchdowns, there is a chance that Randy Fichtner's offense can get this kind of production out of its WR room.

Fantasy players this impacts: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and James Washington

Patriots WR Room

The Patriots' wide receivers had 23 receptions on 33 targets for 330 yards and zero touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. This means that on the year, the Patriots' wide receivers have 33 receptions, 46 targets, 426 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns on the year, and are averaging 16.5 receptions on 23 targets for 213 receiving yards per game.

While Sunday's numbers in wide receiver targets and receiving yards are an outlier compared to Josh McDaniels' career as an offensive coordinator, the season averages are attainable thus far even though they seem to be running on the higher end of his production. Over his career, McDaniels' WR room has averaged 21.76 targets, 164.85 receiving yards, and 1.04 receiving touchdowns per game. Looking just at those averages, it seems like 213 receiving yards is completely out of the realm of possibility. But it's important to keep in mind that McDaniels has had two seasons in the past where his WR room averaged 230+ receiving yards per game, in 2007 with the Patriots and 2010 with the Denver Broncos. So while it is unlikely that this wide receiver corp averages 213 receiving yards per game over the course of the full season in McDaniels' offense, it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

Fantasy players this impacts: Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry, and Damiere Byrd 

Browns RB Room (Run Game Efficiency)

The Browns' running backs ran wild on a Cincinnati Bengals Defense that was missing Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels, taking 32 carries for 210 rushing yards in Week 2. This put the Browns' RB room at 56 rushing attempts for 347 rushing yards and three rushing TDs on the year. While I believe that the rushing attempts can hover around this range based on Kevin Stefanski's previous 19 game history as a play-caller, the efficiency of 6.2 yards per carry is going to be difficult to maintain over the course of a full season, as well as averaging 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game. I've personally got a lot of stock in this backfield and believe if any backfield is going to do it, it would be one with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. But, looking at Kevin Stefanski's history, it would take this year being a historic year for this level of efficiency to be maintained over the course of a full season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt

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