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David A Marcillo analyzes each bullpen that looks to be using a committee approach for 2020. It's usually bad news for fantasy leagues, but could there be some hidden value within one of the committees?
The concept of a closer-by-committee is, according to some theories, the best way to run a bullpen for most "real life" baseball teams. The concept of a closer-by-committee is, according to all fantasy baseball players, a real life hassle. A well-defined closer is ideal for fantasy teams in standard leagues because it guarantees that one specific player will receive the vast majority of save opportunities for that team. With saves and save opportunities already close to impossible to predict on a daily basis, a team using a committee approach only makes it even more difficult. For an overview of all bullpens, see our Closer Depth Charts.
A closer-by-committee approach basically means that a manager doesn't pigeonhole any of his relief pitchers into the ninth inning. While most big league teams have a very specific "closer" who almost exclusively pitches the ninth innings of games his team is winning by three runs or fewer, teams using the committee approach have at least a couple of guys who can come in in those situations. Which pitcher comes in on which day can depend on the handedness of the opposing batters, on the recent usage of the bullpen, on which pitcher has been "hot" lately, or sometimes just on the whim of the manager.
In holds leagues and leagues that count saves and holds equally or together (usually SVHD or SV+HD), a closer-by-committee based bullpen is generally just fine, as the relievers used are almost certainly going to be given a chance to collect either saves or holds in most of their appearances. In standard leagues though, it creates a messy guessing game that is generally best avoided entirely. Many times, a bullpen that is committee-based on Opening Day soon becomes a traditional one with a standard closer either due to injury or to ineffectiveness on the part of the other members of the committee. There seem to be fewer committee-based bullpens this season, at least for now, but let's take a look at what bullpens will be going with the sharing is caring approach, at least to kick off the season.
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Tampa Bay Rays
The seeming originators of weird bullpen tactics, it's no surprise that Kevin Cash's Tampa Bay Rays will likely enter the 2020 season without a specifically named closer. The closest they came to it last season was Emilio Pagan, who led the team with 20 saves last season. Pagan has since been traded to the San Diego Padres, but not to worry, the Rays had 11 different pitchers earn saves in the 2019 season.
This year, the committee will be some mix of Nick Anderson, Jose Alvarado, and Diego Castillo. Chaz Roe, Oliver Drake, and Colin Poche could mix in occasionally as well. The safest bet is Nick Anderson, because Alvarado will likely be used when lefties are due up in the ninth inning, and Castillo has been pitching well in an opener role, which would of course have him out of the game well before a save opportunity exists.
Anderson has the huge strikeout numbers (52.6 K% as a Rays pitcher last season) to give him possible value even outside of a traditional closer's role. Anderson is the rare closer-by-committee member who may still be worth drafting in standard leagues. In holds leagues, he's an absolute must.
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals had fireballer Jordan Hicks set as their long-term closer until, of course, his elbow decided to call it quits. Hicks had to undergo Tommy John Surgery and missed most of the 2019 season. He will be out until at least the All-Star Break, and the Cardinals seem to be set on using a committee approach until then. This committee, like many do, does seem to have a clear front-runner, however.
Giovanny Gallegos worked as the primary setup man to Hicks at the beginning of last season, and then to Carlos Martinez later on in the year. He was great in 2019, picking up 19 holds (and the second save of his career) while posting a 2.31 ERA and striking out one-third of the batters he faced (33.3 K%). There's no reason to think Gallegos can't take the job and run with it, at least until Hicks is ready to come back, so he's still a recommended fantasy closer in standard leagues, just with a slight dip in value due to not being officially named yet.
Competing with Gallegos for saves will be Andrew Miller, John Brebbia, Brett Cecil, John Gant, and Ryan Helsley. Miller is dealing with some kind of mysterious injury that doesn't let him feel the ball in his hand, so he may be out of the running, at least in the early going. That opens the door for Brett Cecil to perhaps show up as the lefty pitcher for this ninth inning.
Gallegos was actually better against lefties than righties last season, but sometimes teams like to play matchups even when the numbers don't make sense. Brebbia and Gant are more likely to work middle relief and setup roles, but could pop into a ninth inning here or there. Helsley is the dark horse of sorts here, as he throws hard and has gotten some spring buzz already. He's unlikely to unseat Gallegos at the head of the table, but could be the first one to sneak a look if Gallegos struggles or gets hurt.
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants will enter the 2020 season with the truest closer-by-committee situation of any team. Not only do they not have any player with legitimate closing experience (Tony Watson leads the team with 30 career saves in nine major league seasons), but they are also managed by Gabe Kapler, who showed a strong tendency to avoid locking relievers into specific innings in his time as Phillies skipper.
The only other Giants with saves in 2019 were Will Smith (gone to the Braves), Mark Melancon (Braves again), Shaun Anderson (working as a starter), Sam Dyson (hoo boy, look that one up yourself), Trevor Gott, and Jandel Gustave. Gott should be part of the committee this season, but Gustave didn't show too much in 2019.
Alongside Gott and Watson will likely be Tyler Rogers, who may have the most upside of the trio. Last season, Rogers threw just 17 2/3 innings in his rookie season, but they were 17 2/3 good innings. He posted a 1.02 ERA/2.87 xFIP and struck out 16 batters while walking just three. Rogers is 29 and has had some ups and downs in the minor leagues, but he could come out of nowhere and lead the Giants in saves if he keeps pitching like he did last season.
There's no one in this bullpen that's even close to a must-own in the majority of fantasy formats, but for the deepest leagues: Watson is the safest bet, Rogers is the upside choice.
For a different take on some of these relievers and a look at other bullpens that may be less than solid heading into the season, check out Questionable Closers: An Early Look at Some Unsettled Bullpens
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