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Tommy Bell takes a deeper look at notable hitters in the Cleveland Guardians lineup to help fantasy baseball owners buy, sell, or hold heading into the second half of the MLB season.
It's safe to say that the Cleveland Guardians offense was not touted as one of the highest-scoring groups in the league heading into the 2023 fantasy baseball season. But with superstar Jose Ramirez leading the way, and high-upside contributors like Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, Josh Bell, Josh Naylor, and Amed Rosario I don't think anyone saw near-worst .292 team wOBA two months into the season. That poor number led to a lackluster 3.8 runs per game average back on June 9th.
However, since that low point, the Guardians have bounced back a bit in the last month before the All-Star Break. They've jumped to a league-average .322 wOBA with an incredibly-low 18.6% strikeout rate while improving their scoring to 4.6 runs per game in the process. As you'd imagine, the improvement over the months of June and July was fueled by a rebound at the plate by their typically trustworthy hitters.
So now that we can take a deep breath at the All-Star Break and attempt to look ahead to the last two and a half months of the season, what should we expect of Cleveland's slow starters? Let's break down a few of the most notable names in the Guardians lineup and see if some underlying stats can help us buy, sell, or hold them on fantasy rosters for the home stretch of the 2023 fantasy season.
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Jose Ramirez
Drafted in the first round of most fantasy baseball drafts, Ramirez came out of the gate with a typical 10-game hit streak and hits in 14 of his first 15 games. However, his power numbers have left a bit to be desired and his stolen base count hasn't jumped like we thought it might in these new MLB conditions. A three-homer game on June 8 has kept Ramirez close to his standard 30-homer pace, but he'll need to improve on his current .870 OPS if he wants to pay that steep draft-day price tag off for his fantasy managers.
The good news? Ramirez's underlying batting profile largely mirrors the work he did last year. Along with that, he's on pace for a similar amount of extra-base hits and is slated to score more runs than in 2022. As long as the Guardians remain near the middle of the pack in offensive production, the 30-year-old should be able to near 120 RBI once again, and 20 steals is attainable if Cleveland is convinced that Ramirez can add value mid-game with his legs.
Overall, there isn't anything actionable when it comes to Ramirez. He's still his studly self in most categories, and while he is not improving as he starts to descend the old age hill, he's not declining in any particular areas either. So long as Cleveland can avoid another two-month offensive hiatus in the second half of the year, the switch-hitting third baseman in the middle of their order should once again return end-of-first-round/beginning-of-second-round fantasy value.
Verdict: Hold
Steven Kwan
The Guardians' second-year lead-off hitter has seen a sizable dip in his production in 2023 compared to his rookie year in 2022. After slashing .298/.373/.400 a year ago, Kwan is only managing a .263/.336/.349 line at the mid-season break. While fantasy managers never drafted him for his homers, the .300 average and on-base-percentage boost was a staple in his game. The good news? Kwan has stolen 14 bases on 16 attempts despite being on base less, which is a much better pace compared to his 19 total swipes in 2022.
An elevated strikeout rate, a slightly lower hard-hit rate, and a BABIP that's 30 points lower are mostly to blame for the dip in batting average so far this season. It's possible pitchers have found a weakness in Kwan's game now that he's more of a known commodity, but the impressive strides in runs and stolen bases keep the 25-year-old relevant despite a slow start with the lumber so far. Kwan was not an expensive investment, to begin with, so there is no reason to panic, especially in roto leagues. Enjoy the categories he's helping you in and hope that he can adjust back to a .285 batting average mark at season's end.
Verdict: Hold
Andres Gimenez
The 24-year-old Gimenez is in a similar spot to that of Kwan, as he's struggling with a .248 batting average this year compared to a .297 clip last season. However, he's on pace for more runs and FAR more stolen bases. The issue with Gimenez is that he's homered just seven times in comparison to a 17-home-run season in 2022.
The good news? The underlying numbers are showing signs of incoming positive regression for the second baseman. Not only is Gimenez hitting the ball just as hard as he did in 2022 with a BABIP that's 70 (!!!) points lower than last year, but he's hitting the ball in the air and pulling the ball more in 2023. His HR/FB rate so far is half of what it was in 2022. In other words, this youngster should see an average and power boom at some point in the next two and a half months. When that happens, the increase in stolen bases could make him an absolute steal in the second half of the season.
Verdict: BUY!
Josh Naylor
There's less to say about Naylor, as a quick glance at his stats shows a nice improvement from his 2022 season. The first baseman is hitting 50 points higher in batting average while staying on pace with his homers, racking up more RBI, and stealing a couple more bags. More line drives and fly balls with a similar hard-hit rate, but a lower HR/FB rate tells me that more home runs should be coming for Naylor. This actually makes him a bit of a buy, though not as much as Gimenez. Good things should remain on the horizon for the 26-year-old slugger.
Verdict: Hold/Buy
Quick Look at the Rest
- Amed Rosario has struck out a bit more this year (18.9% K rate) than last (16.6%), but all of the other numbers look promising. I expect better things to come for the middle infielder. If he's available on waivers, I would be willing to give him a look in case things start to click again.
- Josh Bell continues his free fall since leaving the Pirates in what seemed like a renaissance year. The strikeout rate has now risen above 20%, and while he's hitting the ball harder than he did in 2022, there are still too many balls on the ground (50.5%) for how much power he presents. I don't see a big turnaround coming for Bell in 2023.
- Will Brennan doesn't quite hit the ball hard enough or steal enough bases to get me excited. If there's a path to fantasy relevance, it comes in the form of runs, batting average, and steals, but there's more work to be done here. Maybe next year.
- Myles Straw has yet to find his way on base enough to make his incredible speed worthwhile for fantasy managers. A 19.9% strikeout rate with a 17% hard-hit rate isn't going to do the trick. You can hold off here, as the end seems to be approaching for the 28-year-old defensive-focused center fielder.
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