RADIO
Rishi Patel looks at the projected fantasy football production for the 2020 Cincinnati Bengals to identify potential values and busts.
The Cincinnati Bengals limped to the finish in 2019 with a league-worst 2-14 record. For first-year head coach Zac Taylor, it was an absolute nightmare as the team fielded a putrid defense and started off 0-11. Cincinnati dealt with blowouts and painfully close losses, but if there was any silver lining, it was getting the first overall pick in the 2020 draft.
The team took Heisman and 2019 National Championship winning QB Joe Burrow out of LSU with that first pick, which spelled the end of an era in Cincy as QB Andy Dalton ultimately got released in the offseason. It’s now up to the “savior” Joe Burrow to restore this franchise back to glory and get them into contention. This will not come quickly or easily as the team is still retooling its defense and the offense has some young players.
The Bengals have notoriously lost in the Wild Card Round during their last seven playoff appearances and have not even sniffed the Divisional Round since 1990, three decades ago. Though it’s not likely they will be getting to the playoffs this year, the Bengals could make some progress as the young players on the offense are quite talented. From a fantasy perspective, let’s break down their relevance:
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Quarterback
Gone is longtime starter Andy Dalton, the Red Rifle. Instead, a proven winner in Joe Burrow is now in the Queen City and looking to reignite this team. He’s expected to eventually lead the underwhelming Bengals franchise to the playoffs. For now, though, he’s simply a rookie who needs to get acclimated to the NFL system. Nevertheless, the Iowa native brings massive talent and potential.
Last year at LSU, the 23-year-old had a monster and record-breaking campaign in which he threw for 5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns, and six picks. He also had 368 rush yards and five rush touchdowns. The ascension of the QB’s game was quite incredible from his two-year tenure at Ohio State during his freshman and sophomore campaigns to his senior season at LSU.
Burrow was number one in pass yards (unsurprisingly) in all of college football. He was also first in pass touchdowns, completion percentage, third in yards per attempt, and second in passer rating with 202.
When looking at all-time records, the QB finished with the highest all-time passer rating of 202 (this is based on 325 pass completions at the lowest). Burrow also tied for third-highest pass yards in a season all-time in college football and his 60 pass touchdowns were most all-time during a single season in college football history.
The Bengals are getting a special, special talent who can thrive in the NFL once he develops adaptability with the pace of the game. While he may have broken records in college, Joe Burrow is entering his first year in the NFL, a whole different animal. The expectations may be there, but it’s best not to rely on a rookie as your bona fide QB1 in fantasy. The LSU product should be considered a decent backup in redraft leagues. The only way he can elevate to a QB1 is if he starts to play lights out as the season progresses.
Running Back
Whether it was considered under the radar or not, Bengals running back Joe Mixon was a silver lining on the team last season despite the horrid record. He notched his second consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season. Overall, the Oklahoma product finished with 1,137 rush yards, five rush touchdowns, 4.1 yards per rush, 71.1 rush yards per game, 35 receptions, 287 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns in 16 games played.
Mixon also had 2.3 rush yards after contact per rush attempt and 24 broken tackles. As the lead RB on the Bengals, the RB had 76.2 percent of rushes inside the 5. He also had the fifth most rush attempts among NFL RBs at 278 and 10th most rush attempts per game at 17.4.
Overall, he finished ninth in rush yards among NFL RBs and 12th in rush yards per game. Mixon finished 11th among fantasy RBs last season and ninth in 2018. With a workhorse role, great red zone volume, and two consecutive proven seasons, Joe Mixon is a solid fantasy RB1 in redraft.
The backup is Giovani Bernard, who was drafted in 2013 by the Bengals and has played for them during the past seven seasons. Bernard is coming off one of his worst (or even the absolute worst) statistical seasons in Cincy. The UNC product had 53 rush attempts, 170 rush yards, 3.2 rush yards per attempt, 30 receptions, and 234 receiving yards in 16 games played last season.
The 28-year-old recorded career-lows in rush attempts, rush yards, rush yards per attempt, rushing touchdowns (0), receptions, targets (30), and tied the low in receiving touchdowns (0). The only important category he did not record a career-low in is receiving yards. With Joe Mixon only age 24 when the season begins, that means he is only entering his prime.
Bernard’s fantasy value takes a large dip because he is a backup and his huge decline last year could be a foreboding that his relevancy in Cincinnati may be ending. It’s best to avoid the veteran in fantasy.
Wide Receiver
Joe Burrow has no shortage of weapons. This season, he will come in with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross III, and rookie Tee Higgins at his disposal.
Green returns the WR1, but he is on the franchise tag, will be 32 to begin the 2020 season, and missed all last season due to an ankle injury. Despite being considered the WR1 on the team, there are all these factors to consider when looking at Green in fantasy drafts.
In the last season the Georgia product was on the field, which was 2018, the receiver suffered a toe injury which limited him to nine games. Thus, the Pro Bowl wideout recorded many career lows that season with 46 receptions, 77 targets, 694 yards, and six touchdowns (this was not a career-low).
The last full season Green played was in 2017. Keep in mind that the WR has immense talent and potential though. From 2011-2017, he played in the Pro Bowl, had 100+ targets, and sealed six 1,000-yard seasons in that seven-season span. Nevertheless, age and recent injury history downgrade the value of the receiver. He’s a solid WR2 in redraft heading into the season.
Tyler Boyd is the WR2 on the depth chart, but he should only be considered slightly behind A.J. Green considering the breakout seasons that the receiver had last season and in 2018 with Green nursing setbacks. The 25-year-old paced the team in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns. The 2016 pick recorded career-highs in receptions, targets, and receiving yards last year during his fourth NFL season.
The Pitt product notched 90 receptions, 148/616 targets (24%), 1,046 yards, 11.6 yards per catch, and five touchdowns in 2019. He finished 25th among fantasy receivers. Among NFL pass-catchers, Boyd ranked tied for 11th in receptions.
The presence of A.J. Green interferes with Boyd’s fantasy value, removing a bit of the luster if you will. The two receivers should not be considered too far apart on the team depth chart and in fantasy value considering Green’s age and injuries and Boyd’s breakout and younger age. The 25-year-old Boyd is also a solid WR2 in redraft.
Rookie Tee Higgins out of Clemson now joins the mix after being drafted in the second round. Bleacher Report described the 6’4” wideout as strong with good catching abilities and a huge red zone presence. The only downside is the lack of speed at times, but he was compared to Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson II.
In three seasons at Clemson, the 21-year-old had his best campaign during his junior season in 2019. He finished with 59 receptions, 1,167 yards, 19.8 yards per catch, and 13 touchdowns. Overall, the Tennessee native concluded college with 135 receptions, 2,448 yards, 18.1 yards per catch, and 27 touchdowns.
Higgins can be a huge asset for Joe Burrow as both begin and go further into their NFL careers. For now, he still needs to get used to the NFL system and therefore should be considered a depth piece in larger redraft leagues (think 14 teams) for now. A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd should see more targets and hence production.
Rounding out the top-four receivers is speedster John Ross III. Last year, the third-year player did record career-highs in receptions and yards, but his entire career has been underwhelming to this point. In 2019, the Washington product had 28 receptions, 56/616 targets (9.1 %), 506 yards, 18.1 yards per catch, and three touchdowns in eight games played.
Though the 2019 numbers were "good" when looking at the overall stats of Ross, it was in part due to the absence of A.J. Green. Other than that, the NFL career of the receiver has been marred by injuries and limited production. Ross’ lack of proven consistency in the NFL also relegates him to a depth piece in large redraft leagues.
Tight End
Longtime Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert is now in Jacksonville, which may leave you scratching your head at who will fill the spot. That goes to C.J. Uzomah, who was drafted in the fifth round during the 2015 draft and has spent the past five seasons with the Bengals in a small role.
The Auburn product’s chance for a big break comes now. In 16 games played last season, the 27-year-old managed 27 receptions, 40/616 targets (6.5 %), 242 yards, nine yards per catch, and two touchdowns. The TE has never surpassed 43 receptions, 64 targets, 439 yards, and three touchdowns in his entire career, and those all came in 2018.
Given his lack of proven success in the NFL, it’s best to avoid Uzomah during fantasy drafts and pick him up off the waiver wire during the season if he shows consistency and develops a big role on the offense.
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