March 24, 2016

Christopher Olson continues RotoBaller's Bold Prediction series, offering his thoughts for the 2016 fantasy baseball season.

I must say I quite enjoy being involved in lists like these. If you are wrong, no one can say anything because they’re supposed to be long shots! I did my best to keep in line with things that might actually happen. Let’s see how we do.

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10 Bold Predictions for 2016

1. Jason Hammel will be a top-25 starting pitcher.

Hammel has done all he can over the past two seasons to leave owners with bad feelings after the All-Star break, but his overall numbers have actually continued to improve over that span. 2015 saw his strikeout rate rise to a career-best 24% as the culmination of a two-year increase, while his swinging strike rate (11%) and K/BB ratio (4.30) followed a similar pattern. With an ADP somewhere in the low-to-mid 200s, Hammel could be one of the most underrated pitchers heading into drafts, and should shatter that position as long as he doesn’t get traded back to the American League over the course of the season.

2. Prince Fielder will be closer to a top-25 than a top-10 option at first base.

There is no delicate way to put this. Overweight players do not age well. We can see this in Jeff Sullivan’s research over at Fangraphs in 2011, as he found that players who weigh more than 3.25 lbs per inch of height on average experience a steeper drop off in WAR than players with a normal body type. As it happens, Fielder’s power has been in a sharp decline over the last three full seasons, as his ISO has fallen from a .267 in 2011 to a career-worst .158 last year. His walk rate last season also fell below 10% for the first time since his rookie year in 2006. There isn’t enough here to predict a total collapse (even in a bold column), but I would be pretty happy to let someone who remembers the 40-homer guy in Miller Park overpay for Fielder’s services.

3. Mark Reynolds will be relevant in mixed leagues.

It’s been a long time since the 32-year-old was a serious candidate for anything outside of an AL/NL-only league, but the move to Colorado could help Reynolds in ways most might not expect. According to baseballmonster.com, hitters at Coors Field strike out 14% less on average, while the standard batting average rises at a 17% higher clip. This means that the move to the Mile-High City may not only enhance his strengths, but hide his weaknesses as well.

4. David Peralta will be a top-15 outfielder.

Peralta had a breakout season in 2015, notching a .312/.371/.522 slash line with nine stolen bases and 17 home runs in 149 games. Despite the impressive display, however, the community doesn’t appear to have much faith in the surge, as he is being ranked somewhere closer to a top-30 asset. While there is no doubt about his power, some may doubt that he can keep his batting average high, as he struck out nearly 21% of the time. It is worth noting, however, that his hard contact rate (35%) was the 13^th-best mark among those in the outfield last year. That is the same rate as Jose Bautista and Justin Upton.

Peralta said his struggles early on against lefties had more to do with a lack of playing time than anything else, but manager Chip Hale told the Arizona Republic in late February that the 28-year-old will open the season with the opportunity to face “most” left-handed pitchers. If Peralta can overcome his early platoon difficulties, it may be possible for him to cover this prediction with room to spare.

5. Mat Latos finishes the season as a top-40 starting pitcher.

2015 was an odd season for Latos, as he saw time with three different teams, but was unable to find success anywhere. Despite the combined 4.95 ERA, however, his peripherals tell us that he had a pretty typical Latos season. His strikeout rate rose back above 20% after slipping to 17.6% in 2014, and his swinging strike rate (10%) matched his career average. It seems that where Latos really got hurt last year was in his strand rate, as the 64% of runners he left on base was the lowest mark of his career.

Latos has dealt with a number of injuries over the past few seasons, but told the Chicago Sun-Times in February that he “feels great” following a new workout regiment this winter. Of course, none of this guarantees that he will see a significantly heavier workload than the 116.1 innings he notched last season, but a healthy Mat Latos could potentially be a very productive one if he is able to stem some of the hard contact that became his undoing.

6. Jumbo Diaz will save 30 games for the Reds.

Diaz is a curious case, as he didn’t debut in the majors until he was 30 years old. While the 4.18 ERA he posted in 61 games last season is nothing to write home about, he kept an average velocity over 97 miles per hour(!), while notching a 27.5% strikeout rate. Diaz allowed 1.3 HR/9 last season, but actually increased his ground ball rate to 44%, finishing with an xFIP of 3.20.

Part of this prediction has to do with the quality of competition, as Tony Cingrani has dealt with injuries and is without a secondary pitch, while incumbent J.J. Hoover’s strikeout rate tumbled below 20% last year. The fact that the Reds are unlikely to win more than 75 games puts a natural cap on this prediction, but suffice it to say that Diaz will likely be the man to own for saves in Cincinnati.

7. Justin Verlander reemerges as a top-10 starting pitcher.

Verlander’s 2015 season looks positively pedestrian by his standards. If we take a look at only the second half, however, what we see begins to look very much like a Cy Young candidate. Through 103 innings after the All-Star break, Verlander notched a 2.80 ERA, a 24% strikeout rate, and a walk rate of just 5.2%. Verlander has now pitched through injuries for the better part of the last two seasons, but will finally begin 2016 healthy after missing time to begin last year with a triceps issue. If Verlander can avoid spending time on the disabled list, there doesn’t seem to be any reason he can’t be his old dominant self.

8. Michael Pineda will be a top-20 starting pitcher.

A look at Pineda’s peripherals makes it a bit hard to understand how he ended up with a 4.37 ERA last year, as his xFIP (2.95) ranked him among the top-10 at the position with a minimum of 150 innings pitched. As you may have guessed, a spike in home runs was Pineda’s undoing, as he gave up long balls at a 1.8/9 clip after the All-Star break. It is important to remember, however, that last season was the first full campaign for Pineda since 2011, so I am quite happy to write off the collapse as a function of fatigue.

Overall, Pineda came away with the highest ground ball rate (48%) of his career, while notching a 23% strikeout rate. If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground while getting free outs, a normalized home run rate could make the sky the limit for the 27-year-old.

9. Pedro Alvarez will eclipse 40 home runs for the first time in his career.

Alvarez has failed to reach the 30-home run mark in each of the last two seasons, but is now in a situation where he doesn’t have to worry about being removed from a lineup because of his defense. The 29-year-old had the third-highest average batted ball distance in the league last season, and will certainly benefit from the move to Camden yards, which ran a three-way tie for the best home run hitter’s park for lefties in 2015.

One of the things that I like about Alvarez for the sake of this prediction is that although he only hit three home runs against lefties last season, he wasn’t awful against them from a power perspective, notching a .161 ISO in 62 at-bats.

10. Joaquin Benoit will be closing for the Mariners before the All-Star break.

Benoit has been the Charlie Brown of relief pitchers the last few years, as it seems like something always happens to make sure he’s relegated to a setup role. The veteran consistently produces regardless of his place in the pen, however, as he has not posted an ERA higher than 2.34 in any of the last three seasons. Despite the perception that Benoit is more suited to a complementary role, he did his best work in high-leverage situations in 2015, holding batters to a .135 OBP in 16 innings.

While it may seem like Steve Cishek’s problems came out of nowhere last year, he has had trouble with free passes in the past, and lost close to a full mile per hour on his fastball from 2014. Cishek didn’t have much competition with the Marlins, but likely won’t have much of a leash if he gets into trouble with a pitcher like Benoit waiting in the wings.

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