Should I Draft Isiah Pacheco or Jerick McKinnon? Fantasy Football ADP Duel for 2023 Drafts

Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Isiah Pacheco vs. Jerick McKinnon for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco entered his rookie season last year with quite a bit of hype, but it took him until midseason to start living up to it. The 2022 seventh-round pick took over the reins of the backfield in Week 7, and he never looked back. Pacheco's excellent production after Kansas City's bye week gave him significant momentum that he will hope to carry into his 2023 campaign.

Pacheco was not the only running back who found success with the Chiefs last season though. In his second year with the team, Jerick McKinnon found his stride as a receiving specialist, setting career highs in receptions, targets, receiving yards, yards per reception, and receiving touchdowns. Like Pacheco, McKinnon's best work came in the latter half of the season, including back-to-back weekly finishes as the RB1 in PPR scoring.

Now, fantasy managers are wondering how the workload will be balanced between Pacheco and McKinnon in 2023. Will Pacheco successfully build upon his rookie-year accomplishments? Will McKinnon be able to replicate his strong receiving numbers? Which player is more valuable in fantasy leagues relative to their cost in drafts? This article will take a deeper dive into the Kansas City backfield and give fantasy managers the information they need to approach these two players correctly.

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Isiah Pacheco's Rookie Season

As just a seventh-round draft pick, Pacheco was not the subject of many discussions in the early post-draft period. However, the Rutgers product quickly began to impress observers with his athleticism throughout training camp and the preseason. Frankly, this development should not have come as a surprise; his 40-yard dash time of 4.37 seconds at the Scouting Combine was a 99th-percentile figure, and his 27 bench press reps came in at the 93rd percentile.

This talent and fanfare did not translate to immediate production, though. He did post 12 carries for 62 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, but most of those numbers came during garbage time in a 44-21 win over Arizona. In four of his next five games, Pacheco had three or fewer carries. Moreover, he had just two total receptions in that span. The expectations for Pacheco quickly dropped as Clyde Edwards-Helaire desperately clung to the team's starting running back position.

The situation changed dramatically during the lead-up to Week 7. Insiders reported that Pacheco would start that Sunday against the 49ers over Edwards-Helaire, marking a quick shift in the backfield's dynamics. While Pacheco would go on to carry the ball only 13 times in the next two games, he took off in Week 10. Over his final nine appearances, Pacheco averaged 14.0 carries for 70.3 yards per game, and he scored four touchdowns during that period as well.

We can see a stark increase in other metrics as well. From Week 1 through Week 9, Pacheco never once cleared the 35 percent snap share mark. From Week 10 onward, he surpassed that figure in every game. His last nine games also marked his nine highest route participation rates. While Edwards-Helaire did sustain an injury during Week 11, Pacheco had already fully seized control of the backfield by that time.

Unfortunately, there was one glaring deficiency in Pacheco's play even after he made his leap. His involvement in the passing game was severely lacking. The rookie had just 14 targets all season long, and in nine games he did not see a single pass come his way. This one-dimensionality can be smoothed over in real life by the Chiefs' other weapons, but for fantasy purposes, it is rather concerning. For Pacheco to reach his ceiling as a fantasy asset, he will need to progress significantly in the passing attack.

While Pacheco did impressive things as a rookie, he is only one cog in the Kansas City backfield this year. The other key player to look into is Jerick McKinnon, whose strengths are exactly what Pacheco lacked. McKinnon complements Pacheco well, but what is his fantasy outlook? It is time to look further into McKinnon's 2022 season to provide a fuller perspective of what the situation is likely to be in the upcoming season.

Jerick McKinnon's Resurgence

Jerick McKinnon began his career in 2014 with the Minnesota Vikings after being drafted in the third round. McKinnon played for four seasons in Minnesota, including a year with 991 scrimmage yards in 2017. He signed with the San Francisco 49ers in 2018, but unfortunately, he didn't play for them until 2020. McKinnon missed the entire 2018 season with a torn ACL and the entire 2019 season with a torn LCL. He had some marginal success in 2020 before joining Kansas City in 2021, where he was a non-factor in his first season.

Last year, though, McKinnon regained relevance as a quality receiving weapon for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Like Pacheco, much of McKinnon's production came after his team's bye week. From Week 9 onward, the former Georgia Southern Eagle averaged 4.3 receptions on 5.4 targets for 39.6 receiving yards per game. Most importantly for fantasy managers, McKinnon also caught a remarkable eight touchdown passes in that span, often making magic spring from his connection with Mahomes.

McKinnon also was not completely useless on the ground either. He posted three games with at least 50 rushing yards, despite that really not being what is typically asked of him. The most carries he had in 2022 was 10 against the Houston Texans, which he turned into 52 yards and a score. With eight catches for 70 yards and a receiving touchdown in that game as well, McKinnon turned in the best fantasy performance by any running back that week.

A week earlier, McKinnon also had a RB1 outing. He only had 22 yards on the ground, but he contributed seven catches for 112 yards and two scores through the air to put up 32.4 fantasy points. Still, even with these dominant games, McKinnon was just the RB26 on a per-game basis, and he was only 36th among RBs in expected fantasy points per game. Moreover, with nine touchdowns in the final six weeks, it is very unlikely that he will be able to reach the endzone with such incredible frequency in 2023.

Thus McKinnon was able to regain fantasy relevance through a series of explosive performances, career-high receiving production, and great touchdown-scoring abilities. One loose end still has to be explored though. Will Clyde Edwards-Helaire impact either Pacheco or McKinnon's fantasy seasons next year? Can he recover his footing within the Kansas City backfield?

Is Clyde Edwards-Helaire a Factor?

Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a nightmare of a 2022 season, as he suffered a season-ending high ankle sprain just a few weeks after being surpassed in the depth chart by Pacheco. Sadly for CEH, the latter development was part of a larger trend. Edwards-Helaire's carries per game average has declined each year since he was drafted, going from 13.9 as a rookie to 11.9 in 2021 and to just 7.1 last season. Additionally, his 4.2 targets per game as a rookie was nearly double the 2.3 targets he has averaged since.

The injury also did not come as a surprise. In 2021, Edwards-Helaire missed five games with an MCL sprain and two more with a bruised shoulder. Ankle and hip injuries forced him to sit out three games as a rookie too. We have seen some running backs beat the injury-prone allegations before, including Christian McCaffrey last season, but this is simply another item currently working against Edwards-Helaire.

Finally, Edwards-Helaire simply appears to be a worse runner than Pacheco and a worse receiver than McKinnon. His career-high true yards per carry is 4.3, and last year he had a mark of just 3.9. Pacheco posted 4.8 true yards per carry as a rookie. McKinnon averaged 9.1 yards per reception and 1.67 yards per route run last year; in 2020, Edwards-Helaire's only season with comparable receiving usage, he averaged 8.3 yards per reception and 1.25 yards per route run. CEH isn't necessarily bad, but his teammates are better.

Final Answer – Isiah Pacheco or Jerick McKinnon?

Fantasy managers wanting Pacheco have had to spend an earlier draft pick on him than others have for McKinnon. Dating back to May, Pacheco's ADP has been as the RB28, whereas McKinnon's has been as the RB42. Both prices seem fair given the very different situations these players find themselves in despite being on the same team.

For McKinnon, it's easy to see how he could provide value at his current price, given his great closing stretch to last season. He is also particularly strong in PPR formats due to his specialization within the offense, and few players at similar ADPs have the same boom potential that he can give on a good day.

Unfortunately, it would be prudent to avoid drafting McKinnon at his ADP. For one, his touchdown production to close the season was absurd and is almost certain to regress to the mean. 30.6 percent of McKinnon's fantasy points came via touchdowns; of the 45 running backs with at least 100 fantasy points last year, only three had higher such shares. 27.5 percent of McKinnon's points came specifically from receiving touchdowns; the closest RB in the previous group to that mark was Samaje Perine at just 16.9 percent.

Moreover, McKinnon is 31 years old and has a history of severe injuries. These two factors should be extremely concerning for fantasy managers; while McKinnon's receiving role should help negate some of the typical age-related concerns for RBs, he will not be able to fully fend off Father Time.

The better value can be found in Pacheco. Being the lead back for the best offense in the NFL is of course a lucrative role for fantasy purposes, and we saw that unfold in the latter half of last season. Pacheco posted six weeks as the RB25 or better in his final eight appearances. Moreover, although McKinnon and Pacheco had the same number of red zone touches (32), McKinnon had twice as many touchdowns; that discrepancy should correct itself in 2023, as Pacheco's strength makes him a quality goal-line threat.

The main concern with Pacheco is his lack of receptions, but he showed some ability on his few targets in 2022. With 13 catches on 14 targets, which he converted into 130 yards (10.0 yards per reception), he is a competent receiver. The Chiefs will likely attempt to get him more involved as a passing target, which would raise his ceiling, but even if that does not occur, Pacheco can outperform his ADP.

For any manager looking at alternatives for McKinnon, consider Atlanta's Tyler Allgeier. Although the Falcons added rookie Bijan Robinson to be their starter this offseason, Atlanta was the run-heaviest team in the league in 2022. There will be opportunities to go around, and Allgeier (4.9 yards per carry) did enough as a rookie last year to earn a solid share. Moreover, Allgeier's upside is very large for his RB43 ADP; if Robinson were to sustain an injury, Allgeier would step into massive volume.

In summary, fantasy managers will be better off picking up shares in Isiah Pacheco than in Jerick McKinnon despite Pacheco's higher ADP. Pacheco is a quality FLEX option with room to be more, and managers should not hesitate to draft him should he entice them. On the other hand, McKinnon is due for regression, and managers would be wise to pivot to other options when filling out their benches.

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