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Rob's fantasy football running back draft sleepers (part 2) -- undervalued workhorse RBs with ADPs after the 6th round including James Conner, Zack Moss, more.
This will be the second of this three-part series on cheap workhorse running backs to buy for the 2024 fantasy football season. This article was written last year and included seven names. You can read it here. Some included RBs were Isiah Pacheco, James Conner, Rachaad White, and David Montgomery. Overall, it was tremendously successful, and the strategy of waiting on running backs has become more of the norm and can be very prosperous.
As mentioned in the first series, volume is everything for running backs. As long as they clear 250 touches in a season or 14.7 touches per game, their odds of being a top-24 running back increase exponentially. That shouldn’t be entirely surprising since we know volume is king, but we’ll identify four more players who could surpass, meet, or, at the very least, flirt with that threshold.
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The Parameters
Before we get into the running backs, there are a few rules. We are looking for running backs who are being drafted in the seventh round or later. If we're trying to target the other positions early, we don't want to be taking a running back before that. That gives us six rounds to hammer quarterback, receiver, and tight end. This leaves us with this question: who will be left in the seventh round? That's who we're identifying. How do we know who to target? It's simple -- volume. Touches per game. That's what we're after.
Last season, only two running backs inside the top 24 for full-PPR PPG failed to reach an average of 14.7 touches per game. Over 17 games, that would equal at least 250 touches. 22 of last season's top-24 running backs accomplished this. In 2022, only three finished in the top 24 for PPR PPG average, with a touch-per-game total of fewer than 14.7. Just three running backs managed the feat in 2021 as well. So, when we're looking for running backs to target in Round 7 or later, we want to find running backs who are a good bet for 14.7 touches per game. Let's begin.
Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers
RB26, ADP 91.9
We need to consider with somewhat of an asterisk. Right off the bat, I don’t expect Brooks to finish with 250 touches. He’s a rookie coming off a torn ACL. The coaching staff has also already stated he's likely to miss the start of the season. Chuba Hubbard operated as the primary running back last season and finished with 277 total touches but finished with an utterly disappointing RB33 finish. How does that happen? Well, he finished with the 14th-worst expected PPR differential. Hubbard just wasn’t very good. That wasn’t all his fault; the circumstances in Carolina were disastrous.
This offseason, the Panthers traded for Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers and drafted Xavier Legette in the first round of the NFL Draft. They also signed guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to monster contracts that, when combined, equal $153 million with $89 million in guarantees. The skill positions and offensive line are vastly improved from a talent standpoint.
Carolina also hired Dave Canales, the quarterbacks coach in Seattle in 2022 when Geno Smith had his breakout season. He then went to Tampa Bay, became their offensive coordinator in 2023, and was pivotal in Baker Mayfield’s resurgent season. The hope is that he’ll be able to do the same thing for Bryce Young. With their offseason additions, he’s got the talent to make it happen.
Staying with Canales in 2023, while in Tampa Bay, Rachaad White finished with 272 carries, 70 targets, and 64 receptions. He was second in the NFL to only Christian McCaffrey with 336 touches. White finished as the RB10 last year with a 15.76 PPR PPG average. Fantasy managers hope to find Brooks in that kind of role.
Hard to not get excited for Brooks after Dave Canales just wrapped up a season with the Bucs in which Rachaad White ranked amongst running backs:
* 6th in targets (70)
* 4th in receptions (64)
* 1st in routes (451)
* 3rd in reYDs (549) https://t.co/gQWJNYP5wZ— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) May 6, 2024
That won't happen immediately, not considering his injury and rookie status. However, that doesn’t mean Brooks won’t average 14.7 touches per game at some point this season, and that expectation makes him such an intriguing player to bet on. As previously mentioned, Hubbard struggled mightily last year. Among 42 running backs with at least 150 touches, Hubbard ranked 31st in yards per carry and 35th in yards per reception.
Jonathon Brooks is the 15th second round running back to go inside of the top 50 picks (from 33 to 50 overall) in the NFL Draft since 2013
Among the 14 previous top-50 overall selections at RB, nine have gone on to finish as a top-20 scorer in fantasy points per game as a…
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) May 15, 2024
Carolina drafted Brooks in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft, and that kind of draft capital indicates that it views him as its future starter. Hubbard will be able to hold Brooks off for only so long, but eventually, Brooks is going to become the workhorse. Brooks is a player you need to plan your draft around a little bit because he's not going to be someone that is going to be provide much assistance for the first six weeks of the season. You're hoping he comes on strong the final 6-8 weeks. That's where you're hoping he pays off and he very well could.
Jonathon Brooks (2023) vs. Bijan Robinson (2022)
This was a LOT closer than I expected it to be 👀 pic.twitter.com/4GQaRZuNhG
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) February 18, 2024
If Canales' history with White is any indication, once that happens, Brooks will have no problem clearing 14.7 touches per game. With the added improvements on the offensive side of the ball, Brooks has the potential to be a league winner in the second half of the season.
Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
RB28, ADP 97.7
Mixon was traded to the Houston Texans this offseason. The Bengals have done very little short of signing Moss to replace him. As their depth chart currently sits, it looks as though Moss will be the early-down and short-yardage back. Chase Brown will likely be the pass-catching and third-down option. However, it’s certainly possible that either one increases their role, and Moss is the better bet to do just that.
Since being drafted in 2017, Mixon has 224 rushing attempts and 40 receptions per season. That brings us close to that 250-touch threshold. However, that doesn’t take into consideration games missed. His per-game averages over his seven years in Cincinnati equate to 275 carries and 50 receptions over 17 games, clearing our threshold by 75 total touches. Mixon has cleared 250 touches in six out of seven seasons in which he’s appeared in at least seven games. In the six seasons he’s appeared in 14 or more games, Mixon averaged 286 touches per season.
Redraft RB Bargain 🚨 Zack Moss
Currently the (RB34!!!) via @FantasyPros for redraft.
Joe Mixon has finished as a top 10 RB (PPR) in the last 3 years for the Bengals.
Over the last 3 years, he’s averaged:
🔹253 rushing attempts
🔹51 receptions
🔹12 TDsAdditionally, has… pic.twitter.com/1DkJApBZ8c
— Lobo (@LobosFFDen) May 8, 2024
Last season, due to Jonathan Taylor struggling with injuries, Moss received 12 or more touches in nine games. He had 825 scrimmage yards in those games, or just under 92 yards per game and 179 total touches. Using his per-game averages in those nine games across 17 games, Moss would have finished with 338 touches and 1,558 scrimmage yards.
Brown's rushing success rate was just 34.1%, dead last among 77 running backs with at least 40 carries. Moss's success rate was 49.2%, 27th best, one of the reasons fantasy managers should expect Moss to handle more of the rushing work. Given Moss's size and experience, he should be expected to be the lead back early.
In those 10 games, Moss had 615 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, 169 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. After extrapolating over 17 games, Moss would have finished with 1,046 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns, 287 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns. Given the strength of the Bengals offense, Moss is a decent bet for eight or more touchdowns, something Mixon accomplished 83% of the time when he played more than seven games.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
RB20, ADP 80.7
It’s funny that Josh Jacobs averaged 13.9 PPR PPG last year to James Conner’s 14.3. Both of their respective teams drafted running backs in the third round, but Conner sits with an RB28 ADP and Jacobs is at RB9. Make it make sense. Just so we’re clear, that doesn’t make any sense, and there’s no sense in trying to make it make sense because you can’t. That doesn’t matter, though; we can reap the rewards of drafting Conner in the eighth round, just like last year.
Last year was one of his best. In the 13 games he appeared in, Conner had a 71.3% opportunity share, ninth-highest among running backs. He was fifth among running backs in yards per carry (5.0), 16th in yards per touch (5.1), sixth in yards after contact per attempt (2.2), second in rush attempts per broken tackle (7.7), eighth in juke rate (24.7%), 10th in evaded tackles (58), 16th in yards created per touch (3.64), and seventh in breakaway run rate (6.3%). Among running backs with at least 100 touches, Conner finished seventh in positive expected half-PPR point differential with a +1.5 expected PPG average. He was one of the NFL's most efficient and productive running backs last season.
You're underrating how good James Conner was last year.
* RB7 in PPR points per game
* RB1 in PPR points per game from Week 13 on
* 4th in rushing yards per game
* 4th in @NextGenStats rush yards over expected per attempt
* 5th in @PFF rushing grade— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) June 3, 2024
Since signing with Arizona in 2021, Conner’s per-game averages have put him on pace for 246 carries and 37 receptions over 17 games. He has averaged 15.9 touches (2021), 17.6 touches (2022), and 18.1 touches (2023) in each of the last three seasons. Last year was his first season under first-time head coach Jonathan Gannon and first-time offensive coordinator Drew Petzing.
Conner finished with a 71.3% opportunity share last season, the ninth highest among running backs. He also had a 61.9% snap share (12th highest) and ranked 10th in touches per game. What’s even wilder when you compare Conner to Jacobs and their offseason ADPs is that Conner was good last season! Check out his stats below:
Jacobs’ current ADP makes no sense after he was one of the league's most inefficient running backs last season. At -46.6, Jacobs had the third-worst differential between his PPR PPG and his expected PPR PPG. Conner had the ninth-best differential at +19.9. Conner’s current ADP might make less sense than Jacobs', but that presents a tremendous buying opportunity.
Conner's first season in Arizona came in 2021, and that season, he was the RB9 with a 15.6 half-PPR PPG average. Conner has averaged 17.1 touches per game in his three seasons with Arizona. That equates to just over 291 touches over 17 games. Conner has averaged 14.1 half-PPR PPG in his three seasons with the Cardinals. He's been a top-12 fantasy running back since signing with the team in 2021.
Fantasy managers should expect rookie Trey Benson to get more work than Arizona’s No. 2 running back did last season. That’s okay! There’s plenty of room for that between Conner’s 18.1 touches per game average and the 14.7 we need him to stay above. There’s also plenty of room between his RB14 finish last year and the RB28 ADP he’s currently being drafted at. This is all assuming that a third-round rookie is good, which is so far from a lock. We know Conner was very good last season. We saw it. The numbers show it.
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