Drafting Backwards: Finding Cheaper Fantasy Football Alternatives at QB, RB, WR, TE

August 26, 2024

Let's do some ADP arbitrage. Corbin Young examines one cheaper alternative at each position going later than they should in FFPC drafts.

The ADP market has become more efficient over the years, making it somewhat challenging to find potential value selections. There's a concept called drafting backward, meaning looking at what we can identify toward the end of the draft that might be similar to something earlier. The most challenging part of fantasy football involves projecting forward based on data we may or may not have seen yet.

We'll use FFPC, which provides a robust market for 12-team leagues and tight-end premium formats for ADP purposes. The goal is to identify player alternatives going four rounds or 48 picks later that could be undervalued based on the market. It's like shopping at Costco in bulk to find something cheaper than at another establishment.

As usual, we'll examine the historical data, trends, and underlying metrics to find potential cheaper alternatives at each position. Name value or recent success, struggles, or uncertainties cause a player's ADP to shift. The breakout players that smash their ADP usually help win leagues. It won't be easy, but the ADP market seems to have these players mispriced.

Caleb Williams, QB, CHI

111.4 FFPC ADP - QB15

Since 2014, we've had seven quarterbacks drafted in the top-5 of the NFL Draft who have averaged 15 fantasy points per game or higher in their rookie season out of 17 qualified quarterbacks. Two came from the 2023 class, including C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. Stroud thrived off his passing fantasy points per game, while Richardson crushed via the ground game. Regardless of the difference in QB scoring to other sites and formats, the point stands that Williams fits the mold of a potential high-end QB1 based on his profile.

If a quarterback doesn't post passing fantasy points in the double digits, we'll want them to add value via the rushing game. That's the case for rookie Caleb Williams. In college, Williams averaged over 77 rush attempts, 513 rushing yards, and nine rushing scores per season. That averages out to about 6.5 rushing fantasy points per game. For context, Richardson, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray averaged over five rushing fantasy points per game at the quarterback position over the past decade.

The Bears made several offensive additions, pointing toward more passing than we've seen in recent seasons. Last season, the Bears ranked 30th in pass rate with Fields at quarterback, while the Seahawks ranked fifth. Shane Waldron joins the Bears as offensive coordinator, suggesting a more pass-heavy approach with Williams at quarterback. That's further solidified since they added Keenan Allen, drafted Rome Odunze, and signed D'Andre Swift.

Sometimes, rookie quarterbacks struggle when they land on teams with poor offensive weapons surrounding them, like Bryce Young on the Panthers. However, Williams has above-average skill players to rely upon through the air while adding fantasy juice via the rushing game. It's hard to fault Williams' ADP, but he should be closer to Murray. Though there isn't a four-round or 48-pick difference between Murray and Williams, it wouldn't surprise us if he finished closer to where Richardson's ADP sits, top-5 at the quarterback position.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, DEN

145.8 FFPC ADP - RB46

The Broncos backfield continues to warrant attention because they've ranked second in 2023 and fourth in 2022 in running back targets over the past two seasons. While Javonte Williams feels undervalued too, with a 102.8 FFPC ADP, as RB30, Jaleel McLaughlin fits the Jaylen Warren, Tony Pollard, and Austin Ekeler-type mold of an efficient running back with receiving skills poised for more opportunities. It's a good bet to invest in running backs like McLaughlin over players that need volume to thrive like Zamir White and Zack Moss.

Among running backs with 50 rushing attempts, McLaughlin ranked second in yards before contact per attempt (YBC/Att), tied for sixth in yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att), and fifth in evasion rate at 22%. We'll note that McLaughlin never reached double-digit carries in a game, though he took 27.6% of his attempts for over 15+ yards (No. 14).

McLaughlin is an efficient and explosive receiver, with the eighth-most yards after the catch per reception. He averaged the fifth-most yards per route run among running backs with 25 targets. It's worth emphasizing that McLaughlin trailed Williams and Samaje Perine, who both had a 12% target share.

While we're not expecting McLaughlin to take on a massive workload, we're projecting an increase as a rusher and receiver. The median outcome involves McLaughlin's rushing EP/G (2.4) and receiving EP/G (3.4) to double in 2024, putting him in the range of an RB3 with upside.

There have been rumors of the Broncos cutting Perine. However, the downside scenario involves Perine and one of the rookies—Audric Estime or Blake Watson—eating into the rotation of McLaughlin and Williams and becoming a headache. McLaughlin has the skills to be an explosive and efficient rusher and receiver in a shared workload, making him a cheaper option to target in the later rounds.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA

92.7 FFPC ADP - WR42

Since many drafts tend to prioritize wide receivers early and often, it's more challenging to find receivers later in drafts that could be a cheaper version. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was one of the better receiver prospects among the loaded Ohio State Buckeyes squad, but he underwhelmed in Year 1 with the Seahawks. First, let's look at Smith-Njigba's rookie comparisons.

Using receiving EP/G, fantasy points over expectation, age, weight, and draft capital, Smith-Njigba compared closely to the rookie seasons of Robert Woods, George Pickens, DeAndre Hopkins, CeeDee Lamb, DJ Moore, and Jalen Reagor. Woods didn't break out until Year 6 as WR11 in his second season with the Rams. Reagor remains the bust and worrisome comp. Pickens took a step forward in Year 2, ranking as WR30, with improved efficiency, evidenced by his 2.1 FPOE/G (No. 18).

The team context for Moore's Year 2 was unique, with Christian McCaffrey leading the team in targets, Curtis Samuel as the third option, and Kyle Allen playing most of the season as the starting quarterback. Moore's target share jumped to 24% in Year 2, with a jump in air yards per target to 11, up from 8.4 in Year 1. Lamb earned more targets in Year 2, playing alongside Amari Cooper and Dalton Schultz.

We lay out the context suggesting Smith-Njigba can garner more opportunities even with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the squad. Smith-Njigba had a brutal 6.1 air yards per target (No. 87) but produced efficiently with 5.8 YAC/Rec (No. 11) and the sixth-best Receiving Air Yard Conversion Ratio (RACR) at 1.1. That suggests Smith-Njigba efficiently converted his air yards into receiving production.

Though Smith-Njigba didn't best Lockett or Metcalf in any notable metrics like targets per route run, yards per route run, and yards per target, we could envision a scenario where he takes a step forward in Year 2. The main issue was the air yards, evidenced by his low 0.46 weighted targets per route run, accounting for the depth of the targets. Lockett saw his 1.61 YPRR fall to the lowest since 2017, with 2020 close at 1.66. While it could be fluky to see Lockett's efficiency dip, we want to bet on the younger receiver in Smith-Njigba.

That's especially so, considering the Seahawks targeted their receivers at the fifth-highest rate while running 11-Personnel 63.1% of the time (No. 17). It's hard to project coaches going from college to the pro level. However, Ryan Grubb's offense should maintain the high pass rates in 2024.

The historical data points toward Smith-Njigba leaping in Year 2, with a median scenario as a WR3. Meanwhile, the upside scenario involves him garnering a target share of 23 to 25%, pushing for the team lead or No. 2 in receiving opportunities. It might be a massive leap for Smith-Njigba to leap four rounds in ADP in the following year, but it's within the range of outcomes. Prioritize Smith-Njigba as an undervalued receiver in the middle rounds who could outperform Zay Flowers, Stefon Diggs, and Cooper, going earlier in drafts.

Ben Sinnott, TE, WAS

177.9 FFPC ADP - TE25

Last season, Sam LaPorta went around pick 150 in ADP and finished with the second-highest win rate among the position since 2021. Trey McBride went at pick 186 in 2023, with Dalton Kincaid at 121. It's unlikely for another season where middle to late-round tight ends like LaPorta and McBride smash. However, we might have an undervalued tight end later in drafts, especially in a Tight End Premium (TEP) ADP format like the FFPC.

Sinnott peaked in his final collegiate season with 49 receptions, 676 receiving yards, and six touchdowns, translating to a 25% Receiver Dominator. Based on draft capital, size, and collegiate production, Sinnott compared closely to Hunter Long, Mark Andrews, Josh Oliver, Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper, and David Njoku.

Besides the comparisons, Sinnott possesses above-average or high-end athleticism. That's evident in Sinnott's 74th percentile Speed Score and 98th percentile Explosion Score. We want athletic players in the tight end position, and Sinnott has been an explosive producer. Among the 2024 tight end prospects, Sinnott ranked fourth in receiving yards per team pass attempt in 2023, the third-most in his career.

He improved as a pass blocker, with the fourth-highest PFF Pass Block Grade (72.8) among tight ends with 50 or more targets in 2023. He can play in-line and in the slot, evidenced by his 32% slot rate and 58.5% in-line rate in his career. The main concern involves opportunities, with the Commanders signing Zach Ertz to a one-year deal before drafting Sinnott. Ertz played with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona, though the veteran tight end will turn 34 during the 2024 season. That suggests he likely won't or shouldn't contribute to a meaningful role.

Over the final two seasons with Arizona, Kingsbury's offense had the ninth-highest pass rate at 60%, with a mobile quarterback like Murray healthy for most of those games. They ran the highest no-huddle rate at 31%, suggesting Kingsbury wants to maintain a high-pace offense. With the Commanders losing Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson look like the top two options. Sinnott can become one of Jayden Daniels' favorite pass-catching options in 2024.

We want to take chances on a tight end that could be the second-best option in the receiving game. Sinnott fits the profile, especially considering Dotson hasn't been a strong target earner and produced mostly on efficiency. It might be a slow start for Sinnott, but there's a good chance he should be valued about 50 picks higher as a mid-range TE2.

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