RADIO
It’s never fun pitting brothers vs brothers, teammates vs teammates, but that’s exactly what we’re going to be doing today. We have a Charger Clash on our hands between receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. We’ll be discussing which wide receiver will have the better season in 2023 and which player is the best option for fantasy managers factoring in their price tag.
2022 was a lost year for both players, as they both struggled mightily with injuries. Not surprisingly, we witnessed the worst season of Justin Herbert’s career. His touchdown rate which had never been below 5.2% his first two seasons dropped all the way down to 3.6%. With the addition of offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore and with better injury luck for these two receivers, fantasy managers should be expecting a big-time bounce-back season for the Chargers' passing attack.
That will likely keep both players in the good graces of fantasy managers everywhere. As long as these three players stay healthy, all of them are virtually guaranteed to have great seasons. Still, we need to crown a victor today. Which receiver will score more fantasy points this season and which one will be the best investment? Let’s discuss.
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What Do We Know?
Let’s start here, what do we know? We know the 2022 season featured plenty of injuries for both players. In fact, there were only four games all of last year where Keenan Allen and Mike Williams played 65% or more of the team’s snaps together. Just four – that’s it. In 2021, there were 14 games where they each played in at least 65% of the team’s snaps in the same week. 18 games give us a fairly good sample size to start gathering some information from. So, what do those games tell us?
| Player | TPG | TS | RPG | RYPG | RZ TPG | TD PG | AYPG | YPRR | TPRR | FF PPG | x-FF PPG | SPG |
| K, Allen | 10.5 | 26.4% | 7.3 | 77.5 | 1.66 | 0.33 | 84.8 | 1.95 | 26.5% | 17.2 | 19.4 | 62.7 |
| M, Williams | 8.1 | 20.4% | 5 | 78.3 | 0.94 | 0.55 | 97.6 | 2.11 | 22.0% | 16.1 | 16 | 58.5 |
From the table above, you can see that Allen and Williams have played almost the same number of snaps over the course of this 18-game sample spanning from 2021-2022. Allen has a slight advantage, averaging four more snaps per game (SPG). Pretty minimal stuff.
However, despite the similar playing time, Allen has a significant advantage in several prominent categories, most notably targets per game. Over the course of a 17-game schedule, the difference in their target per-game average would equate to roughly 41 more targets for Allen. That’s significant. For Williams, that’s essentially five extra games of volume. This should come as no surprise when you look at their target shares and targets per route run where Allen has a significant advantage.
The other area in which Allen has a significant advantage is in receptions per game. He averages 2.3 more receptions per game than Williams, which in full-PPR scoring leagues is something fantasy managers should be paying very close attention to. Over the course of 17 games, that’s a difference of 39 receptions between the two players.
There’s one other area I want to bring your attention to with regard to Allen. While you can see that Williams has scored more touchdowns per game than Allen, it’s actually Allen who averages more red zone targets per game, in somewhat of a convincing fashion. Allen’s per-game average of this statistic over 17 games would equal 28 red zone targets compared to Williams’s 16. While Williams has scored more touchdowns, wouldn’t you expect the player with 12 more red zone targets and 41 more overall targets to score more?
Their expected full-PPR PPG average certainly thinks so. While their full-PPR average from this 18-game sample is fairly similar – Allen holds a minimal 1.1 PPG advantage – the difference between the two players’ expected full-PPR PPG is 3.4. Williams has scored exactly what we would expect him to, but Allen scored 2.2 fewer PPG than we would’ve expected given his number of targets and specifically, red zone targets.
Interestingly, their receiving yards per game are separated by less than a yard with Williams holding the ever-so-slight lead. Even their air yards per game are surprisingly similar. Williams has averaged 98 air yards per game, while Allen is nipping at his heels with 85. So how does all of this impact their week-to-week fantasy scoring?
They Are Who We Thought They Were
Despite the incredibly similar yards and air yards per game, Williams still provides significantly more upside for fantasy managers. During this 18-game sample, Williams scored over 25 points once, over 30 points once, and over 35 points once. Allen, on the other hand, did not score over 25 points a single time. However, Allen scored 19 or more points nine times compared to Williams at seven. In the end, they both finished with the same number of WR1 performances with six.
Where Allen does shine more brightly than Williams is in his consistency. Allen had seven other games where he provided WR2 value compared to just four for Williams. It should come as no surprise that Williams’ tag of being a bit of a boom-or-bust fantasy player is true. He had eight weeks where he scored in the WR3 or worse department. Allen had just five.
In the end, however, despite the lack of week-winning upside, Allen did perform as a WR1 at the same rate as Williams, just without the ceiling that Williams provides. Allen was incredibly more consistent. Williams finished as a WR3 or worse in 44% of the games in this 18-game sample. That’s certainly not ideal.
Where Are They Ranked?
Right now, on Underdog which is for best ball tournaments, Williams has an ADP of 40.1 and is ranked as WR20. Allen is the WR28 with an ADP of 51.3. While on the surface I can understand why Williams might be the preferred option in best ball leagues because of Williams’ higher weekly ceiling, Allen is the better option considering their price.
FantasyPros has Allen ranked as the WR17 and Williams at WR23. Right now, Allen is one of the best fantasy football values across every position. His current price tag is in the WR2, even into the WR3 territory in best-ball leagues, but he has legitimate top-12 upside. When he returned from injury last year, he was one of the best receivers in the NFL down the stretch.
Allen is likely to operate in the same role that CeeDee Lamb played last year for Kellen Moore’s 2022 offense in Dallas. With Allen back to 100%, the improved offensive play-calling, and a regression to the mean in regards to Herbert’s touchdown rate, fantasy managers should be absolutely smashing Allen right now at his current price and ranking.
He is without a doubt the better option among the two Chargers’ receivers not only when factoring in their price, but straight-up, as well. Fantasy managers are likely concerned about the injury concerns last year and recalling the injury-prone tag he received while still on his rookie contract. However, following his rookie contract, from 2017 to prior to last year, he missed just three games out of 81 possible contests. Don’t freak out about 2022’s injury, just buy the dip.
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