X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Charger Clash: Keenan Allen vs Mike Williams

Keenan Allen - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Who to draft? Rob takes a look at the ADPs for Chargers wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Can both of them be fantasy football assets this season?

It’s never fun pitting brothers vs brothers, teammates vs teammates, but that’s exactly what we’re going to be doing today. We have a Charger Clash on our hands between receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. We’ll be discussing which wide receiver will have the better season in 2023 and which player is the best option for fantasy managers factoring in their price tag.

2022 was a lost year for both players, as they both struggled mightily with injuries. Not surprisingly, we witnessed the worst season of Justin Herbert’s career. His touchdown rate which had never been below 5.2% his first two seasons dropped all the way down to 3.6%. With the addition of offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore and with better injury luck for these two receivers, fantasy managers should be expecting a big-time bounce-back season for the Chargers' passing attack.

That will likely keep both players in the good graces of fantasy managers everywhere. As long as these three players stay healthy, all of them are virtually guaranteed to have great seasons. Still, we need to crown a victor today. Which receiver will score more fantasy points this season and which one will be the best investment? Let’s discuss.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

What Do We Know?

Let’s start here, what do we know? We know the 2022 season featured plenty of injuries for both players. In fact, there were only four games all of last year where Keenan Allen and Mike Williams played 65% or more of the team’s snaps together. Just four – that’s it. In 2021, there were 14 games where they each played in at least 65% of the team’s snaps in the same week. 18 games give us a fairly good sample size to start gathering some information from. So, what do those games tell us?

Player TPG TS RPG RYPG RZ TPG TD PG AYPG YPRR TPRR FF PPG x-FF PPG SPG
K, Allen 10.5 26.4% 7.3 77.5 1.66 0.33 84.8 1.95 26.5% 17.2 19.4 62.7
M, Williams 8.1 20.4% 5 78.3 0.94 0.55 97.6 2.11 22.0% 16.1 16 58.5

From the table above, you can see that Allen and Williams have played almost the same number of snaps over the course of this 18-game sample spanning from 2021-2022. Allen has a slight advantage, averaging four more snaps per game (SPG). Pretty minimal stuff.

However, despite the similar playing time, Allen has a significant advantage in several prominent categories, most notably targets per game. Over the course of a 17-game schedule, the difference in their target per-game average would equate to roughly 41 more targets for Allen. That’s significant. For Williams, that’s essentially five extra games of volume. This should come as no surprise when you look at their target shares and targets per route run where Allen has a significant advantage.

The other area in which Allen has a significant advantage is in receptions per game. He averages 2.3 more receptions per game than Williams, which in full-PPR scoring leagues is something fantasy managers should be paying very close attention to. Over the course of 17 games, that’s a difference of 39 receptions between the two players.

There’s one other area I want to bring your attention to with regard to Allen. While you can see that Williams has scored more touchdowns per game than Allen, it’s actually Allen who averages more red zone targets per game, in somewhat of a convincing fashion. Allen’s per-game average of this statistic over 17 games would equal 28 red zone targets compared to Williams’s 16. While Williams has scored more touchdowns, wouldn’t you expect the player with 12 more red zone targets and 41 more overall targets to score more?

Their expected full-PPR PPG average certainly thinks so. While their full-PPR average from this 18-game sample is fairly similar – Allen holds a minimal 1.1 PPG advantage – the difference between the two players’ expected full-PPR PPG is 3.4. Williams has scored exactly what we would expect him to, but Allen scored 2.2 fewer PPG than we would’ve expected given his number of targets and specifically, red zone targets.

Interestingly, their receiving yards per game are separated by less than a yard with Williams holding the ever-so-slight lead. Even their air yards per game are surprisingly similar. Williams has averaged 98 air yards per game, while Allen is nipping at his heels with 85. So how does all of this impact their week-to-week fantasy scoring?

 

They Are Who We Thought They Were

Despite the incredibly similar yards and air yards per game, Williams still provides significantly more upside for fantasy managers. During this 18-game sample, Williams scored over 25 points once, over 30 points once, and over 35 points once. Allen, on the other hand, did not score over 25 points a single time. However, Allen scored 19 or more points nine times compared to Williams at seven. In the end, they both finished with the same number of WR1 performances with six.

Where Allen does shine more brightly than Williams is in his consistency. Allen had seven other games where he provided WR2 value compared to just four for Williams. It should come as no surprise that Williams’ tag of being a bit of a boom-or-bust fantasy player is true. He had eight weeks where he scored in the WR3 or worse department. Allen had just five.

In the end, however, despite the lack of week-winning upside, Allen did perform as a WR1 at the same rate as Williams, just without the ceiling that Williams provides. Allen was incredibly more consistent. Williams finished as a WR3 or worse in 44% of the games in this 18-game sample. That’s certainly not ideal.

 

Where Are They Ranked?

Right now, on Underdog which is for best ball tournaments, Williams has an ADP of 40.1 and is ranked as WR20. Allen is the WR28 with an ADP of 51.3. While on the surface I can understand why Williams might be the preferred option in best ball leagues because of Williams’ higher weekly ceiling, Allen is the better option considering their price.

FantasyPros has Allen ranked as the WR17 and Williams at WR23. Right now, Allen is one of the best fantasy football values across every position. His current price tag is in the WR2, even into the WR3 territory in best-ball leagues, but he has legitimate top-12 upside. When he returned from injury last year, he was one of the best receivers in the NFL down the stretch.

Allen is likely to operate in the same role that CeeDee Lamb played last year for Kellen Moore’s 2022 offense in Dallas. With Allen back to 100%, the improved offensive play-calling, and a regression to the mean in regards to Herbert’s touchdown rate, fantasy managers should be absolutely smashing Allen right now at his current price and ranking.

He is without a doubt the better option among the two Chargers’ receivers not only when factoring in their price, but straight-up, as well. Fantasy managers are likely concerned about the injury concerns last year and recalling the injury-prone tag he received while still on his rookie contract. However, following his rookie contract, from 2017 to prior to last year, he missed just three games out of 81 possible contests. Don’t freak out about 2022’s injury, just buy the dip.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF