RADIO
Much is made of a team's projected batting order early on in the offseason, but the discussions quickly become moot as the realities of the regular season alter every team's plans. Slumping players move down the batting order, replaced by their more productive teammates. A utility guy could escape the bench and become a fixture in a team's lineup. You just never know what might happen.
Bearing this in mind, it can be a worthwhile gamble to spend a late pick on a guy who may not be scheduled to play on Opening Day. For example, Yangervis Solarte would immediately become fantasy-viable if Devon Travis and/or Troy Tulowitzki land on the DL. The speculated Josh Donaldson trade would also do the trick. Likewise, most analysts expect Boston to make a move limiting Mitch Moreland to a bench role, but he could actually be a key piece in their lineup.
Let's take a closer look at the intriguing possibilities this pair of AL East players offer.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Yangervis Solarte (2B/SS/3B, TOR)
Solarte personified mediocrity in 2017, slashing .255/.314/.416 with 18 long balls and a trio of steals. With eligibility at all three positions listed above plus seven games at first base, a competent batting line is really all Solarte needed to have fantasy value as a reserve.
Yet there is upside for more here. Solarte never strikes out, posting an 11.9% K% last year right in line with his career 11.5% rate. The underlying 7.4% SwStr% validates his performance further, especially since he is also willing to take a walk (7.2% BB%, 7.5% career). This makes Solarte a favorable BABIP away from being a real batting average asset.
Last year's .258 BABIP didn't deliver, nor would his .279 career rate. However, positive regression seems to be in order. Solarte historically fails to hit many line drives (19.2% career LD%), but last year's 16.4% rate is still due for an increase. His IFFB% also spiked (12.7% in 2016 to 17.4% last year), providing additional room for BABIP growth if it returns to Solarte's career norm.
Solarte's ground balls also underachieved in 2017 (.218 BABIP vs. .231 career) with no obvious cause. The shift limited him to a .232 average last season, but he doesn't pull that many grounders (55.9% last year) and has had no problem with the shift in the past (.289 career). His 84.5 mph average exit velocity on grounders was Solarte's lowest in the Statcast Era (86.8 mph in 2016, 87.3 in 2015), but still above the league average. His Statcast Sprint Speed was right in line with his past work as well (26.5 ft./sec vs. 26.4 in 2016 and 26.8 in 2015), so the 30-year old didn't suddenly lose his athleticism either.
Solarte hit a lot more fly balls last year than the year before (36.8% to 42.1%), sacrificing some batting average potential for power upside. He's not blessed with much raw power (89.3 mph average airborne exit velocity, 3.9% rate of Brls/BBE) but still manages a fair number of homers with the sheer volume of fly balls that leave his bat. Petco Park hurt the switch-hitter from both sides of the plate last year (93 HR factor for RHB, 88 for lefties), a fact that Toronto's Rogers Centre should change (100 for RHB, 95 for lefties).
Toronto is a notorious homer haven, so you may be surprised by those factors above. It just means that single season HR factors aren't the most reliable of data points. In 2016, the park had a 96 factor for RHB and 110 for lefties. In 2015, righties benefited (105) while lefties did not (95). Suffice to say that the park offers Solarte more power upside than 2017 ballpark factors suggest.
Overall, Solarte projects as a .280 hitter with 20-25 HR and at least 20 games played at three infield positions. You could do a lot worse with your final pick or auction dollar.
Verdict: Champ
Mitch Moreland (1B, BOS)
Moreland's 2017 line (.246/.326/.443 with 22 HR) was far from impressive for a 1B, but it masks a lot of positive indicators in the 32-year old's profile. For instance, he bested his career BB% (9.9% vs. 8%) while simultaneously holding his career K% (20.8% to 21.2%)--a great indicator of improved zone judgement.
Moreland also managed to slash his 2016 IFFB% in half (10.9% to 4.9%) without compromising his total number of fly balls produced (37.4% FB% to 36.2%). This gave him plenty of opportunity to combine his excellent average airborne exit velocity (94.8 mph, 53rd in MLB min. 100 BBEs) and rate of Brls/BBE (12%, 31st) to produce dingers for fantasy owners. Moreland has always murdered baseballs, as he posted an average airborne exit velocity of 94.9 mph in 2016 and 96.8 mph in 2015. Why is his career HR/FB only 15.2%?
The answer lies in Moreland's aversion to pulling his fly balls. The so-called power alleys are the easiest place to hit one out in any ballpark, but Moreland pulled only 17.9% of his career fly balls. A mechanical adjustment that brings this rate closer to 30% would almost certainly allow Boston's first sacker to hit 30+ long balls.
Moreland's .278 BABIP last year also has room to grow. He hit .176 on grounders (.210 career) despite posting his highest Statcast Sprint Speed ever (26.3 ft./sec). He was shifted in 346 of 371 PAs, but he doesn't have a theoretical (54.7% Pull% on ground balls) or practical (.273 vs. shift last year, .278 career) problem with it. Like Solarte above, Moreland also posted an above average exit velocity on ground balls (84.2 mph) even if it falls short of his prior work (88.7 mph in 2016, 87.7 mph in 2015).
Finally, Roster Resource has Moreland projected as Boston's cleanup hitter, a role he occupied at times last season. It offers the potential to produce enough counting stats to justify his draft cost alone. Everyone expects Boston to somehow change this scenario, but their front office may realize that they are not one roster move away from viably competing with the Yankees. Why blow a ton of money or sacrifice future value to maybe solidify a Wild Card Spot?
Verdict: Champ
