X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump - Yangervis Solarte and Mitch Moreland

Much is made of a team's projected batting order early on in the offseason, but the discussions quickly become moot as the realities of the regular season alter every team's plans. Slumping players move down the batting order, replaced by their more productive teammates. A utility guy could escape the bench and become a fixture in a team's lineup. You just never know what might happen.

Bearing this in mind, it can be a worthwhile gamble to spend a late pick on a guy who may not be scheduled to play on Opening Day. For example, Yangervis Solarte would immediately become fantasy-viable if Devon Travis and/or Troy Tulowitzki land on the DL. The speculated Josh Donaldson trade would also do the trick. Likewise, most analysts expect Boston to make a move limiting Mitch Moreland to a bench role, but he could actually be a key piece in their lineup.

Let's take a closer look at the intriguing possibilities this pair of AL East players offer.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Yangervis Solarte (2B/SS/3B, TOR)

Solarte personified mediocrity in 2017, slashing .255/.314/.416 with 18 long balls and a trio of steals. With eligibility at all three positions listed above plus seven games at first base, a competent batting line is really all Solarte needed to have fantasy value as a reserve.

Yet there is upside for more here. Solarte never strikes out, posting an 11.9% K% last year right in line with his career 11.5% rate. The underlying 7.4% SwStr% validates his performance further, especially since he is also willing to take a walk (7.2% BB%, 7.5% career). This makes Solarte a favorable BABIP away from being a real batting average asset.

Last year's .258 BABIP didn't deliver, nor would his .279 career rate. However, positive regression seems to be in order. Solarte historically fails to hit many line drives (19.2% career LD%), but last year's 16.4% rate is still due for an increase. His IFFB% also spiked (12.7% in 2016 to 17.4% last year), providing additional room for BABIP growth if it returns to Solarte's career norm.

Solarte's ground balls also underachieved in 2017 (.218 BABIP vs. .231 career) with no obvious cause. The shift limited him to a .232 average last season, but he doesn't pull that many grounders (55.9% last year) and has had no problem with the shift in the past (.289 career). His 84.5 mph average exit velocity on grounders was Solarte's lowest in the Statcast Era (86.8 mph in 2016, 87.3 in 2015), but still above the league average. His Statcast Sprint Speed was right in line with his past work as well (26.5 ft./sec vs. 26.4 in 2016 and 26.8 in 2015), so the 30-year old didn't suddenly lose his athleticism either.

Solarte hit a lot more fly balls last year than the year before (36.8% to 42.1%), sacrificing some batting average potential for power upside. He's not blessed with much raw power (89.3 mph average airborne exit velocity, 3.9% rate of Brls/BBE) but still manages a fair number of homers with the sheer volume of fly balls that leave his bat. Petco Park hurt the switch-hitter from both sides of the plate last year (93 HR factor for RHB, 88 for lefties), a fact that Toronto's Rogers Centre should change (100 for RHB, 95 for lefties).

Toronto is a notorious homer haven, so you may be surprised by those factors above. It just means that single season HR factors aren't the most reliable of data points. In 2016, the park had a 96 factor for RHB and 110 for lefties. In 2015, righties benefited (105) while lefties did not (95). Suffice to say that the park offers Solarte more power upside than 2017 ballpark factors suggest.

Overall, Solarte projects as a .280 hitter with 20-25 HR and at least 20 games played at three infield positions. You could do a lot worse with your final pick or auction dollar.

Verdict: Champ

 

Mitch Moreland (1B, BOS)

Moreland's 2017 line (.246/.326/.443 with 22 HR) was far from impressive for a 1B, but it masks a lot of positive indicators in the 32-year old's profile. For instance, he bested his career BB% (9.9% vs. 8%) while simultaneously holding his career K% (20.8% to 21.2%)--a great indicator of improved zone judgement.

Moreland also managed to slash his 2016 IFFB% in half (10.9% to 4.9%) without compromising his total number of fly balls produced (37.4% FB% to 36.2%). This gave him plenty of opportunity to combine his excellent average airborne exit velocity (94.8 mph, 53rd in MLB min. 100 BBEs) and rate of Brls/BBE (12%, 31st) to produce dingers for fantasy owners. Moreland has always murdered baseballs, as he posted an average airborne exit velocity of 94.9 mph in 2016 and 96.8 mph in 2015. Why is his career HR/FB only 15.2%?

The answer lies in Moreland's aversion to pulling his fly balls. The so-called power alleys are the easiest place to hit one out in any ballpark, but Moreland pulled only 17.9% of his career fly balls. A mechanical adjustment that brings this rate closer to 30% would almost certainly allow Boston's first sacker to hit 30+ long balls.

Moreland's .278 BABIP last year also has room to grow. He hit .176 on grounders (.210 career) despite posting his highest Statcast Sprint Speed ever (26.3 ft./sec). He was shifted in 346 of 371 PAs, but he doesn't have a theoretical (54.7% Pull% on ground balls) or practical (.273 vs. shift last year, .278 career) problem with it. Like Solarte above, Moreland also posted an above average exit velocity on ground balls (84.2 mph) even if it falls short of his prior work (88.7 mph in 2016, 87.7 mph in 2015).

Finally, Roster Resource has Moreland projected as Boston's cleanup hitter, a role he occupied at times last season. It offers the potential to produce enough counting stats to justify his draft cost alone. Everyone expects Boston to somehow change this scenario, but their front office may realize that they are not one roster move away from viably competing with the Yankees. Why blow a ton of money or sacrifice future value to maybe solidify a Wild Card Spot?

Verdict: Champ

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF