Champ or Chump: Willi Castro and Jurickson Profar Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

July 16, 2024

Are All-Stars Willi Castro (Twins) and Jurickson Profar (Padres) fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.

Nothing is better than seeing one of your sleeper picks named to a spot in the All-Star Game. Whether you're rewarded for your preseason draft prep or waiver wire savviness, it's confirmation that you're doing something right.

Of course, first-half All-Stars can turn into second-half disappointments. Willi Castro might be an All-Star, but there's an argument he's underperforming in fantasy. Jurickson Profar came out of nowhere, but is he really living up to his prospect hype at age 31?

With that in mind, here's a closer look at two unexpected All-Stars and what they'll offer in the second half.

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Willi Castro (2B/3B/SS/OF, MIN) - 79% Rostered

Castro hit a pedestrian .257/.339/.411 with nine homers in 409 PAs last season, a line that wouldn't typically garner fantasy attention. However, Castro swiped 33 bags in 38 attempts, giving him the stolen base upside fantasy managers are always chasing.

This season, Castro has a .265/.352/.422 line with seven homers in 386 PAs. However, he only has 10 steals in 17 attempts for a success rate of 59%. Minnesota is contending for a postseason berth, and a success rate that low will earn him a red light. Castro hasn't swiped a single base in July, going 0-for-3 on SB attempts this month. His Statcast Sprint Speed declined from 28.6 ft./sec in 2023 to 27.8 ft./sec this season as well.

It seems like Castro won't provide the steals fantasy managers were hoping for, so we'll have to look to the rest of his profile for fantasy value. It doesn't look good:

Castro's batting average is slightly higher than last season, but xBA suggests he doesn't deserve it. His contact quality is virtually unchanged, as Castro's 91 mph average airborne exit velocity and 6.7% rate of Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE) are nearly identical to his 2023 marks of 91.4 mph and 6.8% Brls/BBE. His 13.5% SwStr% is higher than you'd expect from a guy with a 22.8% K%, so Castro's strikeouts may increase, too.

Castro's FB% fell from 41.5% in 2023 to 34.3% this season, meaning he no longer has the raw number of fly balls to compile his way to respectable power numbers. To be fair, many of the lost flies were harmless pop-ups as his IFFB% fell from 10.5% in 2023 to 4.7% this year. Still, pitchers will start grooving pitches if Castro isn't perceived as a threat, making his career-best 31.7% chase rate a moot point.

The 27-year-old has his uses as a bench bat in deeper formats since he qualifies at every position save first base and catcher. However, he lacks the upside to justify a starting role. He probably won't steal too many more bags, won't hit for power, and appears due for batting average regression. He may also lose his position at the top of the Twins lineup if he goes into an extended slump.

If you can sell this Chump as a 2024 All-Star, that's probably the prudent move.

Jurickson Profar (OF, SD) - 92% Rostered

Profar has long been a poster boy for "can't-miss" prospects who missed, but you wouldn't know that from his .305/.394/.476 line in 393 PAs this season. He's added 14 long balls, five steals, and the counting stats that come with hitting first or second most nights, making him an all-around fantasy contributor.

Outstanding plate discipline is the first thing that stands out in Profar's profile. His 11.7% BB% is nearly equal to his 15% K%, and his 22.8% chase rate and 7.4% SwStr% support both metrics. However, plate discipline has never been Profar's bugaboo. His career 10% BB% and 16.2% K% are nearly as good as his current marks and backed by a career 25% chase rate and 7.7% SwStr%.

The big difference between Profar in 2024 and his past self is his BABIP, which stands at .333 against a career mark of .273. There are multiple reasons for this. Profar's 23.1% LD% is a full point higher than his career rate of 22.1%. That might not seem like much, but every point matters when your BABIP on line drives is .683. Unfortunately, LD% isn't sticky enough for fantasy managers to count on moving forward.

Profar also cut his IFFB% to 6%, the first time in his career he's ever posted a single-digit number. His career rate is 13%, and Profar could permanently improve his game if he can keep it up. We need to see more, but it's a promising sign.

Profar improved his contact quality dramatically compared to last season. His 92.6 mph average airborne exit velocity is significantly better than his 2023 mark of 90 mph. Similarly, his 7.4% rate of Brls/BBE is nearly double his 2023 mark of 4%. Sadly, these numbers only mean that Profar improved his contact quality from terrible to average. His .333 BABIP is well above average, so there's not quite enough improvement to support the new Profar.

Profar's power tells the same story. His 14% HR/FB marks the first time he posted a double-digit rate since 2020 (14.9%). Profar's 36.1% FB% isn't that high or that low, so his overall power production should be about average.

Profar is 5-for-7 on SB attempts for a success rate of 71%; right on the borderline of whether stealing is worthwhile for the Padres. His raw footspeed is also below average with a Statcast Sprint Speed of 26.2 ft./sec, so it's safe to assume he won't suddenly start stealing a bunch of bases.

Overall, this author has a hard time buying Jurickson Profar as a guy who will sustain All-Star performance. His contact quality isn't special, he lacks any new standout skills, and he's 31. Profar's lineup role is valuable since he usually hits first or second in San Diego's lineup, but he lacks the track record to maintain that position in a star-studded lineup if he slumps.

Selling high is probably the right move here. Profar is likely better than the failed prospect he used to be, but the underlying numbers simply don't support his performance to date. That makes him a Chump.

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