June 26, 2016

Rick Lucks analyzes Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Upton, and Prince Fielder to see who will have continued success and which players will see a regression for the rest of the 2016 fantasy baseball season.

Risk in fantasy sports is supposed to be the thing you balance against upside toward the end of your draft. Everyone should get roughly equal early round talent, and then teams differentiate themselves by guessing right on lesser names.

Except it doesn't always work out that way. Sometimes your highly priced brand name superstar contributes goose eggs, forcing one of your speculative selections to break out just to keep up with the core of other teams. It can be hard to know what to do in this scenario, as you'll feel even worse if you cut your guy after a slow start only to see him deliver for a rival. Owners of Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Upton, and Prince Fielder find themselves in exactly this scenario. When do you hold on and when is it time to cut bait? Perhaps sabermetrics can make the decision easier.

The Fantasy Jury Is Out

Ryan Zimmerman (1B, WAS)

Zimmerman was seen as a potential bargain on draft day if he could only stay healthy. He's missed his fair share of games this year, but that may have been for the best with a triple slash line of .231/.289/.416. His 10 homers aren't bad, but the total package is pedestrian for a first sacker.

The most glaring part of his profile is a .262 BABIP. Normally, this would suggest positive regression was coming, making Zim a desirable asset the rest of the way. However, this argument was used to draft him in the first place, as he posted a BABIP of .268 last year. Zimmerman had above average BABIPs 10 years ago, but all of the injuries may leave this version as the new normal.

It would make sense if Zimmerman has lost a step from his prime, potentially robbing him of a few knocks. He has also been a subpar line drive guy throughout his career, sporting a career 18.9% LD%. His 14.3% mark this year still seems low, but a 16.6% mark last year suggests that even his career norm may be beyond him now. I don't think .300+ BABIPs are coming back for the oft-injured Washington star. Without them, he looks like a batting average risk moving forward.

Moderate BABIP improvement should still be expected. The few liners Zimmerman has struck this year have a BABIP of just .538 against a career mark of .717. Even if Zimmerman has lost something to all of his injuries, a mark closer to last year's .667 or so would still be a considerable improvement. I'm not sure it would be enough of a boost to make him relevant in standard leagues, though.

Zimmerman is also not helping himself by striking out more (20.3% last year to 22.8% this) while walking less (8.5% to 7.2%). His SwStr% is up to 10.1% from 8.2% last season, and most of the additional whiffs are inside the zone (90% Z-Contact% last year to 85.6% this). Comparatively, his O-Contact% is holding up better (64.6% to 61.9%). He still makes contact at a strong rate, but not quite as well as he used to. A plus eye has also regressed to a league average 30.8% O-Swing% this year. This is typical as players grow older, as they find they must start their swing a little earlier to handle major league stuff.

Zimmerman's power thus far has been his one saving grace, but there are two problems with it. First, a pace for a little over 20 homers is not enough to stomach the rest of his line from a 1B or CI slot. Second, his 34.6% FB% does not scream plus power. His 15.9% HR/FB is sustaining him for now, but with a career 13.7% rate, a game in clear overall decline, and a marked decline in pulled fly balls (15.9% vs. 21% career) from his prime, expecting Zimmerman to outslug his younger self seems a fool's errand.

At the beginning of the year Zimmerman had a prime lineup spot behind Bryce Harper to pad his counting stats, but his slow start prompted the team to give it to Daniel Murphy instead. It is safe to dump Zimmerman in most formats.

Verdict: Chump

Justin Upton (OF, DET)

The man that was supposed to lead Detroit to the promised land has done anything but, posting a .236/.296/.390 line with eight dingers and five swipes thus far. It is not a BABIP problem - his current .329 mark is identical to his career average. Instead, the problem is a K% explosion to 32% from 25.6% a year prior, a number far too high for a productive major leaguer.

SwStr% usually confirms such a substantial spike in K%, but Upton's has remained constant at 13.3%. His overall Swing% (44.5% to 44.6%) and Z-Contact% (78% to 77.5%) are also effectively unchanged. He is chasing a few more bad pitches (24.2% O-Swing% a year ago vs. 26.2% so far this year), but his eye remains a definite plus. Upton will still strike out too often because he always did, but I don't see any underlying metrics supporting a 30+% K%. Fewer strikeouts can safely be expected moving forward.

That should improve his batting average, but fantasy owners want the power back too. Upton hasn't lost anything from his excellent FB% (44.1% last year to 44% this). Instead, his HR/FB has tanked to 10.4% after a solid 15.2% a year ago. That is not the general expectation when a player leaves San Diego. His IFFB% is also up (6.4% to 10.4%). He is pulling slightly fewer flies, but only by one percentage point - 19.5% to 20.6%. Is that really enough of a reason to believe in such a power outage?

Recency bias counts in Upton's favor, as he has five homers and a .277 average in June after hitting .221 (two bombs) and .213 (one) over the first two months. Since bad luck is my best explanation for both the surge in K% and decline in HR/FB, I'm inclined to believe that his luck is normalizing. Upton's skills remain unchanged, and he's starting to produce like it.

Upton's five stolen bases may disappoint some after he went 19 for 24 a year ago, but the fault is on you if you expected that to repeat. He only had eight in each of the previous two years, after all. I don't usually buy into the contract year stuff, but I can see a player being more frisky if he thinks he can get a few million more dollars for it. He hasn't been caught yet this year, so his handful seems sustainable going forward at least.

Upton's slump may cost him a few counting stats moving forward, as he lost his second spot in the order during his troubles. A resurgent Upton could conceivably win it back, but fantasy owners would hate to lose that value. Upton seems to have experienced a string of bad luck to start his Detroit career, but it seems to be evening out now. Drop him only at your own peril.

Verdict: Champ

Prince Fielder (1B, TEX)

Speaking of struggling sluggers Detroit gave massive contracts to, here's the poster child. Fielder boasts the worst numbers in this column, with a .205/.274/.315 triple slash and five homers. He also has the same positional weaknesses Zimmerman does, and he may not even be 1B eligible in some leagues. Can he rebound?

Short answer - no. Verdict: Chump

Longer answer - his excellent 2015 was never sustainable. Somehow, a guy with a below average LD% (18.3% last year) and speed reminiscent of Kirk Gibson pumping his fist as he limped around the bases in the 1988 World Series ran a .323 BABIP. This year, he still has a low LD% (19.3%), he still looks like he's in slow motion at full speed, and he doubled his IFFB% (5.3% last year, 10.3% this). The resulting BABIP is .226, and I can't think of a compelling reason for it to be much higher.

More alarmingly, I think he is selling out for power right now. His Pull% is way up (32.5% last year, 38.2% this), and he is pulling an above average amount of fly balls (23.1%). His K% (12.7% last year, 16.1% this) and SwStr% (8.9% to 10.2%) are both up as well. All of the signs for a change in approach are present.

Except results. Fielder's 36.8% FB% is okay, but his 6.4% HR/FB is terrible. The situation becomes even worse when you consider Fielder plays home games in Arlington, one of the best parks for power in the entire league. If you can't homer there, you can't homer anywhere. Oh, and he's signed through 2020 for big money. Yikes!

The Rangers are clearly contenders and perhaps the AL favorite, and sooner or later they are going to realize that their best team just doesn't involve Fielder. Mitch Moreland remembered how to hit at first base, Nomar Mazara refuses to stop hitting, and Jurickson Profar may finally live up to the promise he displayed as a prospect. Texas could fit all three into the lineup with their name players if the DH slot opened up. Fielder won't be benched outright to preserve his ego, but I expect a long term phantom DL stint.

Fielder has had the benefit of a premium lineup slot to put up his dreadful numbers, but that should change quickly. If I have to say something nice about Fielder, he is beating the shift by hitting .244 against it vs. .184 when it isn't on. Note that both numbers are weak. I actually take back the Chump tag above, as I've slapped it on far better players. I'm comfortable cutting him in any league that measures offensive production, so I'll call him...

Verdict: Albatross

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