RADIO
Rick Lucks analyzes Johnny Cueto, Adam Duvall, and Corey Seager to see who will have continued success and which players will see a regression for the rest of the 2016 fantasy baseball season.
As you may know, the AL defeated the NL 4-2 in the All Star Game. As a lifelong NL fan, this saddens me. I have to ascribe the blame to Terry Collins. Why was the completely unqualified Addison Russell allowed to play so long? Why did Jay Bruce and his replacement level performance log defensive time in a game with a DH? Why was Bartolo Colon even on the roster? Nearly everyone played, but not for a winner.
I have decided to vent my frustrations by conducting sabermetric analyses on a selection of losing All-Stars. Adam Duvall, losing pitcher Johnny Cueto, and Corey Seager, come on down!
Editor's Note: RotoBaller has the best Premium MLB Subscription for only $1.99 per week. We have all the tools to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Sleeper Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, PLUS Daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids.
The Fantasy Jury Is Out
Adam Duvall (OF, CIN)
No one even heard of this guy until he smashed 23 dingers in the first half. His .249/.288/.551 slash line isn't great, but fantasy owners will tolerate it for a bat with this much power. Is it real?
His minor league history suggests that it is. Duvall hit 35 HR between Triple-A and MLB last year, totaling 613 PAs between the two stops. His power rate was even more impressive the year before, which he also split between Triple-A and the majors. Duvall clocked a total of 30 bombs in just 471 PAs in 2014. Most of this damage occurred against the best competition the minors have to offer, so Duvall seems big league ready.
It's a tiny sample, but Duvall's advanced MLB stats also suggest excellent power. His 45.5% FB% is nothing short of superb, and his 24% HR/FB is firmly in the territory of the game's top sluggers. Duvall generates his pop in the most sustainable way, pulling an impressive 32.3% of his numerous fly balls. While some regression could be forthcoming simply because no one is this good, plenty of homers should leave Duvall's bat moving forward.
The picture is not as rosy for the rest of Duvall's statistics. First, he is striking out an unacceptable 29% of the time against a walk rate of 4.9%. His 13.5% SwStr% supports a very high strikeout rate, and would be even worse (15.8% last year) if his O-Contact% did not spike from 45.6% last year to 54.6% this. Duvall's 36.5% O-Swing% is also disappointing, as it prevents him from taking advantage of the walks most prolific sluggers enjoy.
Optimists could point to Duvall's minor league history in an effort to forecast improved plate discipline. He generally posted approximately league average K rates in the minors, including a 20.8% number in his largest Triple-A sample last year. The elevated chase rate and SwStr%, however, lead me to conclude that Duvall is a couple of years away from realizing similar rates at the MLB level.
Duvall also appears to be shift bait, hitting just .231 against the shift versus a .311 mark without it. He pulls a very high number of grounders (71.4%), so this appears to be a lasting trend. Furthermore, the newly minted All-Star will no longer sneak up on opposing teams. In fact, his scouting report should be among the most scrutinized on the Reds, especially if they sell at the deadline. Many more shifts and a lower BABIP should be the result.
Duvall doesn't have pronounced home/road splits despite his bandbox home park, hitting 12 of his 23 blasts at home. This means that a trade, however unlikely, would be to Duvall's advantage. The Reds do not offer a great supporting cast, and Duvall only hits fifth most nights despite his success. Playing for a contender would probably increase his counting numbers.
In formats that count CS against you, consider downgrading Duvall's value. His five CS against just two swipes is awful. Other than that, Duvall figures to produce elite power at the expense of everything else. This late in the year, you should know if that has value to you or not. I think the number of home runs makes him worth more in trade than the total package justifies, so he's a chump in most circumstances. If you're chasing bombs though, you couldn't possibly do better.
Verdict: Chump
Johnny Cueto (SP, SF)
Why the heck did this guy start the All Star Game? He relies on shimmies, shakes, and 800 different windups to retire batters, a formula that does not work as well against the best of the best. He has a 5.35 ERA, 15.4% K%, and 8.4% BB% in his postseason career, the best proxy for the Mid Summer Classic. I'm a SABR guy, so I know that postseason failure is generally a small sample size fluke. However, his approach logically wouldn't work as well if an especially talented opponent really bears down.
Sorry, rant over. Cueto's 13-1 record and 2.47 ERA have no doubt pleased fantasy owners thus far, though his 3.39 xFIP could be a cause for concern. Cueto's supporters will point to his established history as a FIP beater, to which I point out that non-knuckler FIP-beaters stop beating FIP eventually, with ugly results. Remember Matt Cain?
Cueto is currently checking all of the FIP beating boxes. He is stranding 77% of the runners against him despite a middling 22.3% K%. He is allowing a BABIP of just .277. He has allowed a total of six homers all season, leading to a fitting HR/FB of 6%. Of the three, the HR/FB seems the most sustainable.
Cueto's GB% has soared, going from 42.4% last year to 51.8% this. The gain can be seen across all of Cueto's pitches, so my best guess for the reason why is the Giants suggesting something to him. Swapping out Cincinnati's ballpark and the DH league for San Francisco's friendly stadium also suggests a declining HR/FB. As a result, this might be the most homer proof version of Cueto ever.
The most unsustainable part of Cueto's current performance is his strand rate. Generally hovering around 72%, higher marks are sustainable if the pitcher can get a K when he needs it. Cueto's K% is up to 22.3% from 20.3% a year ago. His overall SwStr%, however, has actually declined from 9.9% to 9.4%. It is not a huge change, but slightly above average strikeout rates are not usually the result of slightly below average SwStr% numbers.
Pitch selection could potentially explain the above changes, but not in this case. Cueto is throwing more sliders (11.9% last year to 19.9% usage this) at the expense of 4-seamers (30.6% to 22%). It is the most inconsequential pitch mix change I have ever profiled in this column. They have nearly identical triple slash lines against (.223/.264/.320 vs. .232/.267/.323). The slider wins in SwStr% by a whopping .4% (9.2% vs. 8.8%). Both offer the same below average chase rate. Neither offering is that strong.
The sad part is that the slider's 9.2% SwStr% is the second best in Cueto's arsenal. His change of pace is great (19.4% SwStr%, 47.9% chase), but it needs help to post anything higher than a league average K rate. Cueto can't provide that help, meaning that his current K% is probably his high water mark. Do you really want to pay ace prices for a league average amount of strikeouts?
Cueto is also throwing a ton of strikes this year, especially with his 4-seamer. Its 58.2% Zone% is almost exclusively responsible for Cueto's overall Zone% increase to 47% (from 41.5%). That could get predictable in a hurry, leading to damage as more hitters catch on to the new game plan. The risk is far greater than I want for a player with Cueto's cost and upside.
Regular readers know that wins are a fluky stat even for pitchers on strong clubs. Cueto has 13 now, but this has no predictive value going forward. His K% figures to drop and isn't great for a fantasy ace anyway. A few more homers and hits with runners in scoring position and Cueto's ERA jumps by a full run. Sell high before it hurts your fantasy squad.
Verdict: Chump
Corey Seager (SS, LAD)
Seager is hitting .297/.357/.521 with 17 HR. All of the other great young SS are in the AL. Why didn't Seager start the ASG, and finish it for that matter? Questionable fan voting aside, I predicted regression for Seager during the offseason. I didn't trust either his BABIP or his K%. Last season's .387 BABIP has indeed fallen, to .338. It remains quite elevated, though.
Seager's BABIP is fueled primarily by an increased LD%, which stands at 23.2% versus last year's 20.3%. Some guys sustain LD% rates that high, but most do not and Seager does not yet have the track record to include in that group. Seager was aggressively promoted during his minor league career, leaving us with many small samples. In his largest high minors sample, Seager posted a BABIP of .298 in 464 Triple-A PAs last year. In all probability, Seager's LD% falls to a league average (21%) level moving forward.
Seager's grounders perform slightly better than the league average, and his spray chart makes him completely immune to the shift. The final major contributor to Seager's BABIP is a tiny FB% of 29.7%. Flies have the lowest average BABIP by far, so hitting few of them is certainly one way to post elevated BABIPs.
Flies also offer the highest slugging percentages, so fantasy owners generally want them despite the low BABIPs. Hitting 17 homers in half of a season with a sub 30% FB% is probably unsustainable. It depends on a very high HR/FB, which Seager has with a 20.7% mark. 17.1% of his flies are pulled, a good but not great number that does not suggest an elite HR/FB moving forward. The smart money is on Seager finishing the year with less than 30 big flies.
Seager is striking out far more often than he did last year, posting a 20.1% K% against last season's 16.8% mark. His SwStr% is essentially unchanged, declining from 11.2% last year to 10.7% this. His SwStr% was always too high to justify the borderline elite mark he posted last year, but his current rate seems plausible. Likewise, his league average 30.5% O-Swing% fits his current 8.5% BB% much better than his 12.4% rate last year. At only 22 years of age, league average plate discipline is very good. Seager is a tremendous keeper league asset.
Seager has a fairly stark platoon split, hitting .239/.276/.435 against LHP and .318/.385/.552 against RHP. I expect it to smooth out a little as Seager gains experience. He hits in the coveted two slot in a potent order, so the counting stats should always be there. He won't maintain his current power pace for the rest of the year, and might lose a few points off of his batting average as well. Still, this season as a whole will be a step in the right direction for a very promising star in the making.
Verdict: Chump (for now)
P.S. I really wish Steven Wright had pitched in the All Star Game.
Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)
Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
