X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Kepler, Pujols and Strasburg

Rick Lucks analyzes Max Kepler, Albert Pujols and Stephen Strasburg to see who will have continued success and which players will see a regression for the rest of the 2016 fantasy baseball season.

It's the first full week of MLB action after the All-Star Game, and plenty of stories have emerged. Max Kepler is lighting waiver wires on fire with a scorching hot start to his MLB career. Albert Pujols is celebrating like it's 2006 with two multi-HR games this past week. With the unfortunate injury news on Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg is looking like the clear front runner for the NL Cy despite suffering his first loss in his last start.

Fantasy owners saw all of these stories on their highlights of choice. The question we need to ask is if such performances are sustainable moving forward. Lets find out.

Editor's Note: RotoBaller has the best Premium MLB Subscription for only $1.99 per week. We have all the tools to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Sleeper Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, PLUS Daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids. 

 

The Fantasy Jury Is Out

Max Kepler (OF, MIN)

Kepler may have been a complete nobody heading into the season, but 10 dingers in 193 MLB PAs are enough to put anyone on the radar. His .235/.313/.488 slash line isn't special, but fantasy owners are willing to look over a lot of flaws for a 30+ HR pace.

Kepler's minor league history does not support such a pace moving forward. In his largest sample size at one minor league stop, Kepler managed just nine homers in 482 PAs at Double-A last year. Even before his MLB debut this season, he hit only one bomb in 128 PAs at Triple-A. He never had a big power season at any level, and it took him four years to escape Rookie league, the lowest rung on the minor league ladder. He was the definition of a non-prospect.

Despite all of that, Kepler's power indicators look strong in his limited MLB sample. His 39.5% FB% is just about at the magical 40% number sluggers strive for, while his 19.6% HR/FB is coveted by all except the greatest sluggers in the game today. He has generated his power by pulling an insane number of fly balls, 41.2% of them to be exact. However, his total minor league career suggests that Kepler is nowhere near this good. The Pull% in particular does not pass my smell test.

Typically, guys that pull a lot of flies pull a ton of grounders as well. This is why sluggers are shifted against so often. Despite the huge Pull% on flies, Kepler is pulling only 54.6% of his grounders. Yes, that is a higher number than 41.2%, but sluggers usually pull 65+% of their grounders. Kepler is torching the shift as a result, hitting .368 against it and only .200 when it's not in play. Sluggers do not do that.

Between his minor league history and a batted ball profile that seems too good to be true, Kepler is a poor bet to be a power bat going forward. Owners may expect improvement on his .250 BABIP to take some of the sting away, but I'm not sure that's justified. Kepler's minor league BABIPs are really nothing special, controlling for the fact that BABIPs get higher on the farm than the Show. His .359 BABIP at Double-A last year looks impressive, but flukey numbers are fairly common over season long samples.

His MLB profile suggests a low true talent BABIP hitter. First, his elevated FB% discussed above should be expected to suppress his BABIP. Second, his 17.8% LD% is well below the MLB average of 21%. It is a small sample, but seems noteworthy given meh BABIPs in the minor leagues. It will be very hard to post even average BABIPs with such a low LD%.

On the bright side, Kepler's 21.8% K% and 9.1% SwStr% are excellent for a 23 year old getting his first big league exposure. He consistently had low K% numbers in the minors, suggesting that this will be part of Kepler's game going forward. Sadly, balls in play from a guy with little pop and a low BABIP won't excite fantasy owners too much.

Kepler swiped 18 bags in 22 attempts at Double-A last season, and his upper single digit SB totals in Rookie league are fantasy friendly if stretched out over a full season's worth of PAs. He only has two this year though, so it is not certain he runs moving forward. The Twins have a dreadful offense, so counting stats are also hard to come by. Feel free to ride Kepler while he's hot--I have a share myself. Over the long term, though...

Verdict: Chump

 
Albert Pujols (1B, LAA)

A surefire Hall of Famer, Pujols has fallen off last year's 40 dinger pace. He is still hitting .255/.333/.448 with 19 big flies, however, so he remains a viable power option for fantasy. That's a pace for 30+, which plays in most formats after all.

The loss in power production is traceable to a declining FB%, down to 36.7% after spiking to 42.2% last season. The power floor is still high high thanks to a 16.7% HR/FB, completely supported by both his extensive career history and a robust 32.5% Pull% on fly balls. The HR/FB figures to remain high for the rest of the slugger's career as a result, putting Pujols among the safer power plays.

Despite the legitimate pop, Pujols is no longer a first round pick because of a significant batting average risk. His .243 BABIP is low, and last year's .217 mark was even worse. He's slow as molasses, making it nearly impossible to beat out grounders for hits. He also had a tiny LD% even in his prime (18.8% career), and it is now down to 16.1%. That's actually a slight improvement over last year's 15.9% figure. You can also shift against Pujols, as he hits .238 against the shift vs. .258 without it.

Pujols hasn't managed a league average BABIP since 2010, and there is little reason to expect a change anytime soon. There is a reason to expect his average to hurt less for fantasy purposes, however. Pujols is walking more this year, from 7.6% of the time last year to 10.3% now. The improvement is rooted in Pujols's best O-Swing% since 2010, 29.4%. Pujols never strikes out (11.5% K%, 6.7% SwStr%), and prime Pujols was always a plate discipline machine.

That's great if you play in a league that counts OBP, but what if you don't? It is still a boon due to the way fantasy rate stats work. The walks keep Pujols's total PAs down, making his average have a muted effect on a fantasy squad full of guys that record more PAs. It still isn't plus, but becomes easier to swallow with the full time power numbers Pujols provides.

For reasons no one seems to understand, Pujols steals a handful of bags each year despite his age, injury history, and general lack of speed. He's up to four, and probably has too big of a name to just be ordered to stop. He also bats third or fourth every game, right next to some outfielder named Mike Trout. The counting stats are always there as a result. His prime is long gone, but Pujols still represents bankable power production perfect for a team with risk elsewhere.

Verdict: Champ

 
Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS)

My bold preseason pick for Cy Young, Strasburg's 13-1 record and 2.83 ERA have him firmly in that conversation. Advanced stats also love Washington's ace, with xFIP standing at 3.06. Even in his one loss, he struck out 10. Strikeouts have been Strasburg's best asset this year, in real life and fantasy.

Strasburg's K% has trended in the right direction three years running, from 26.1% in 2013 to 27.9% in 2014 to 29.6% last year to 31.2% this year. Let that last number sink in for a moment. More than three of every 10 batters that face Strasburg strikeout. That is insane.

The National's latest K% surge is explainable by the introduction of a slider (1.3% usage last year, 16.2% this). Strasburg has relied less on his three lesser pitches to make room for his new addition: The 4-seamer went from 54.1% to 50.8%, the 2-seamer fell from 9.4% to 6.3%, and the curve is down from 21.7% to 12.9%. By triple slash line against, the slider is Strasburg's worst offering (.279/.279/.441). It should be noted that both the 4-seamer (.210/.296/.337) and 2-seamer (.222/.300/.333) are significantly outperforming their career averages (.251/.311/.411 and .290/.351/.426) to make that true.

More importantly, the slide piece's 12.2% SwStr% is now the second best number in Strasburg's arsenal. The ace's change is elite (21.7% SwStr%, 39% O-Swing%), but has to be chased to be effective (29.5% Zone%). Last year, the curve's 12.9% SwStr% was Strasburg's second best, but its mediocre chase rate (32%) and low Zone% (39.8%) made it an inferior version of the change. The slider's 49.2% Zone% this year makes it a threat in any count, working differently from the change it supports.

Strasburg's curve is now of the get me over variety, declining to a 8.8% SwStr% but spending much more time in the zone with a 47.9% Zone%. The pitch mix change also seems to help Strasburg's heater play up, as it has the improved triple slash line above and an above average 9.1% SwStr% despite a very high Zone% of 61.3%. It is very possible that Strasburg improves the slider with additional practice, giving him some upside despite his currently lofty level.

Many of the "luck metrics" for pitchers become sustainable skills for arms with elite strikeout totals, so it is no surprise to see that Strasburg has been "lucky." His 81.1% LOB% against a 74.6% career mark seems high, but you naturally strand extra runners with a K% in excess of 30%. Likewise, stuff that generates that many Ks could also suppress BABIP against, potentially justifying a .267 BABIP despite a career mark of .295. Strasburg's 12.3% HR/FB seems a shade high, if anything.

Wins are also luck-based, and Strasburg has certainly been fortunate with them this year. A great pitcher on a division leading club is about the best bet you can make in the category, though. Overall, Strasburg is striking out the world and his primary Cy competition is injured indefinitely. I am really liking my bold prediction right now.

Verdict: Champ

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF