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Rick Lucks analyzes Max Kepler, Albert Pujols and Stephen Strasburg to see who will have continued success and which players will see a regression for the rest of the 2016 fantasy baseball season.
It's the first full week of MLB action after the All-Star Game, and plenty of stories have emerged. Max Kepler is lighting waiver wires on fire with a scorching hot start to his MLB career. Albert Pujols is celebrating like it's 2006 with two multi-HR games this past week. With the unfortunate injury news on Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg is looking like the clear front runner for the NL Cy despite suffering his first loss in his last start.
Fantasy owners saw all of these stories on their highlights of choice. The question we need to ask is if such performances are sustainable moving forward. Lets find out.
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The Fantasy Jury Is Out
Max Kepler (OF, MIN)
Kepler may have been a complete nobody heading into the season, but 10 dingers in 193 MLB PAs are enough to put anyone on the radar. His .235/.313/.488 slash line isn't special, but fantasy owners are willing to look over a lot of flaws for a 30+ HR pace.
Kepler's minor league history does not support such a pace moving forward. In his largest sample size at one minor league stop, Kepler managed just nine homers in 482 PAs at Double-A last year. Even before his MLB debut this season, he hit only one bomb in 128 PAs at Triple-A. He never had a big power season at any level, and it took him four years to escape Rookie league, the lowest rung on the minor league ladder. He was the definition of a non-prospect.
Despite all of that, Kepler's power indicators look strong in his limited MLB sample. His 39.5% FB% is just about at the magical 40% number sluggers strive for, while his 19.6% HR/FB is coveted by all except the greatest sluggers in the game today. He has generated his power by pulling an insane number of fly balls, 41.2% of them to be exact. However, his total minor league career suggests that Kepler is nowhere near this good. The Pull% in particular does not pass my smell test.
Typically, guys that pull a lot of flies pull a ton of grounders as well. This is why sluggers are shifted against so often. Despite the huge Pull% on flies, Kepler is pulling only 54.6% of his grounders. Yes, that is a higher number than 41.2%, but sluggers usually pull 65+% of their grounders. Kepler is torching the shift as a result, hitting .368 against it and only .200 when it's not in play. Sluggers do not do that.
Between his minor league history and a batted ball profile that seems too good to be true, Kepler is a poor bet to be a power bat going forward. Owners may expect improvement on his .250 BABIP to take some of the sting away, but I'm not sure that's justified. Kepler's minor league BABIPs are really nothing special, controlling for the fact that BABIPs get higher on the farm than the Show. His .359 BABIP at Double-A last year looks impressive, but flukey numbers are fairly common over season long samples.
His MLB profile suggests a low true talent BABIP hitter. First, his elevated FB% discussed above should be expected to suppress his BABIP. Second, his 17.8% LD% is well below the MLB average of 21%. It is a small sample, but seems noteworthy given meh BABIPs in the minor leagues. It will be very hard to post even average BABIPs with such a low LD%.
On the bright side, Kepler's 21.8% K% and 9.1% SwStr% are excellent for a 23 year old getting his first big league exposure. He consistently had low K% numbers in the minors, suggesting that this will be part of Kepler's game going forward. Sadly, balls in play from a guy with little pop and a low BABIP won't excite fantasy owners too much.
Kepler swiped 18 bags in 22 attempts at Double-A last season, and his upper single digit SB totals in Rookie league are fantasy friendly if stretched out over a full season's worth of PAs. He only has two this year though, so it is not certain he runs moving forward. The Twins have a dreadful offense, so counting stats are also hard to come by. Feel free to ride Kepler while he's hot--I have a share myself. Over the long term, though...
Verdict: Chump
Albert Pujols (1B, LAA)
A surefire Hall of Famer, Pujols has fallen off last year's 40 dinger pace. He is still hitting .255/.333/.448 with 19 big flies, however, so he remains a viable power option for fantasy. That's a pace for 30+, which plays in most formats after all.
The loss in power production is traceable to a declining FB%, down to 36.7% after spiking to 42.2% last season. The power floor is still high high thanks to a 16.7% HR/FB, completely supported by both his extensive career history and a robust 32.5% Pull% on fly balls. The HR/FB figures to remain high for the rest of the slugger's career as a result, putting Pujols among the safer power plays.
Despite the legitimate pop, Pujols is no longer a first round pick because of a significant batting average risk. His .243 BABIP is low, and last year's .217 mark was even worse. He's slow as molasses, making it nearly impossible to beat out grounders for hits. He also had a tiny LD% even in his prime (18.8% career), and it is now down to 16.1%. That's actually a slight improvement over last year's 15.9% figure. You can also shift against Pujols, as he hits .238 against the shift vs. .258 without it.
Pujols hasn't managed a league average BABIP since 2010, and there is little reason to expect a change anytime soon. There is a reason to expect his average to hurt less for fantasy purposes, however. Pujols is walking more this year, from 7.6% of the time last year to 10.3% now. The improvement is rooted in Pujols's best O-Swing% since 2010, 29.4%. Pujols never strikes out (11.5% K%, 6.7% SwStr%), and prime Pujols was always a plate discipline machine.
That's great if you play in a league that counts OBP, but what if you don't? It is still a boon due to the way fantasy rate stats work. The walks keep Pujols's total PAs down, making his average have a muted effect on a fantasy squad full of guys that record more PAs. It still isn't plus, but becomes easier to swallow with the full time power numbers Pujols provides.
For reasons no one seems to understand, Pujols steals a handful of bags each year despite his age, injury history, and general lack of speed. He's up to four, and probably has too big of a name to just be ordered to stop. He also bats third or fourth every game, right next to some outfielder named Mike Trout. The counting stats are always there as a result. His prime is long gone, but Pujols still represents bankable power production perfect for a team with risk elsewhere.
Verdict: Champ
Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS)
My bold preseason pick for Cy Young, Strasburg's 13-1 record and 2.83 ERA have him firmly in that conversation. Advanced stats also love Washington's ace, with xFIP standing at 3.06. Even in his one loss, he struck out 10. Strikeouts have been Strasburg's best asset this year, in real life and fantasy.
Strasburg's K% has trended in the right direction three years running, from 26.1% in 2013 to 27.9% in 2014 to 29.6% last year to 31.2% this year. Let that last number sink in for a moment. More than three of every 10 batters that face Strasburg strikeout. That is insane.
The National's latest K% surge is explainable by the introduction of a slider (1.3% usage last year, 16.2% this). Strasburg has relied less on his three lesser pitches to make room for his new addition: The 4-seamer went from 54.1% to 50.8%, the 2-seamer fell from 9.4% to 6.3%, and the curve is down from 21.7% to 12.9%. By triple slash line against, the slider is Strasburg's worst offering (.279/.279/.441). It should be noted that both the 4-seamer (.210/.296/.337) and 2-seamer (.222/.300/.333) are significantly outperforming their career averages (.251/.311/.411 and .290/.351/.426) to make that true.
More importantly, the slide piece's 12.2% SwStr% is now the second best number in Strasburg's arsenal. The ace's change is elite (21.7% SwStr%, 39% O-Swing%), but has to be chased to be effective (29.5% Zone%). Last year, the curve's 12.9% SwStr% was Strasburg's second best, but its mediocre chase rate (32%) and low Zone% (39.8%) made it an inferior version of the change. The slider's 49.2% Zone% this year makes it a threat in any count, working differently from the change it supports.
Strasburg's curve is now of the get me over variety, declining to a 8.8% SwStr% but spending much more time in the zone with a 47.9% Zone%. The pitch mix change also seems to help Strasburg's heater play up, as it has the improved triple slash line above and an above average 9.1% SwStr% despite a very high Zone% of 61.3%. It is very possible that Strasburg improves the slider with additional practice, giving him some upside despite his currently lofty level.
Many of the "luck metrics" for pitchers become sustainable skills for arms with elite strikeout totals, so it is no surprise to see that Strasburg has been "lucky." His 81.1% LOB% against a 74.6% career mark seems high, but you naturally strand extra runners with a K% in excess of 30%. Likewise, stuff that generates that many Ks could also suppress BABIP against, potentially justifying a .267 BABIP despite a career mark of .295. Strasburg's 12.3% HR/FB seems a shade high, if anything.
Wins are also luck-based, and Strasburg has certainly been fortunate with them this year. A great pitcher on a division leading club is about the best bet you can make in the category, though. Overall, Strasburg is striking out the world and his primary Cy competition is injured indefinitely. I am really liking my bold prediction right now.
Verdict: Champ
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