Champ or Chump: Trevor Story

June 29, 2021

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of Colorado Rockies SS Trevor Story in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2021. What should we expect moving forward?

With the announcement that Trevor Story would participate in the 2021 Home Run Derby, fantasy managers were given an opportunity to consider the strange season he's having. The combination of nine homers and 14 SB delivers plenty of fantasy value, but his .254/.327/.443 triple-slash line is far short of expectations for a guy who hit .294 in 2019. He has also been a common name in the trade rumor mill, so his Coors bonus may not be sticking around for much longer.

Like many Rockies, Story's home numbers are much better than his performance on the road. Many ex-Rockies enjoy continued success after leaving the team, so you shouldn't expect Story to hit like his road numbers permanently if he is traded. That said, where he goes could prove problematic based on which contending teams are looking for shortstops.

Story's contact quality metrics don't scream superstar either, so it might be time for the fantasy community to reassess our overall evaluation of him. Let's take a closer look at what's going on here.

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.250 Here to Stay?

Story's .301 BABIP is well shy of his .342 career mark, so some managers might be tempted to regress him to the mean moving forward. However, his xBA of .254 matches his actual mark perfectly, suggesting that he has deserved his average thus far. The real problem has been contact quality that's roughly average across the board. Take a look:

Story's max exit velocity of 110.2 mph ranks in the 73rd percentile, so he's still hitting the ball well when he hits it hard. Unfortunately, he's not doing so consistently enough to project for an elite average. The same issue is present in his power numbers, where his 12.2% HR/FB is far short of his career 18.3% mark. However, Story's 92.9 mph average airborne exit velocity is a full tick lower than his mark in 2020 (94 mph) or 2019 (93.8 mph). Story has never been a huge barrel guy with a rate of Brls/BBE between 8.6 and 8.7% in each of those years, so the lost velocity is hurting him.

Story's plate discipline is interesting. His K% is trending downward, going from 26.5% in 2019 to 24.3% in '20 in 22.5% this year. That 22.5 K% would be a career-best, but his 12.1 SwStr% would be his highest mark since 2017. In contrast, Story's Z-Contact% of 86.3% would be his second-highest mark. Story's 55.6 O-Contact% represents the first time that the metric has dipped below 60% since 2017, meaning that the increase in SwStr% is rooted entirely in pitches outside of the zone. You have to wonder if maybe the raw slugger who struck out 30+% of the time lost some of his oomph to increase his contact rate.

There's probably no actual change in Story's plate discipline, so we should project more of the same in the future. It's tough to maintain a .342 BABIP, so Story is probably more of a .250-.260 hitter than a .280-.290 one.

Goodbye Coors, Hello Sea Level

The Rockies are a bad club and Story will be a free agent after this season, so he was an obvious trade candidate even before he expressed displeasure at how the team handled Nolan Arenado's exit. The Rockies have an incompetent front office, so it's possible they don't trade him. Still, it seems likely to happen.

Story has stark home-road splits this year, hitting .315/.370/.508 with an 18.5 K% at altitude but just .184/.279/.368 with a 27.1 K% on the road. His career numbers are a little bit more balanced but tell the same story: .305/.370/.612 at home vs. .244/.311/.438 on the road. Coors is such an extreme venue that readjusting to normal playing conditions is difficult, and stars such as Matt Holliday saw their splits even out when they went to other clubs.

The bigger problem is where Story is likely to go. Yankee fans want Story because they think that their team should just buy everyone, but it isn't a great fit with DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres on the roster. The Reds desperately need a shortstop considering that Eugenio Suarez has struggled offensively and defensively there, but at 38-38 they may not be huge buyers. That leaves us with Oakland, the only team that is definitely in contention and needs a SS.

Using the new Statcast park factors, Coors Field is the most offense-friendly ballpark in baseball for right-handed hitters like Story. It has a 142 runs factor, 126 hits factor, 118 HR factor, and a K factor of just 83 over the past three years. Oakland's Coliseum is significantly worse in every regard with a 90 runs factor, 96 hits factor, 81 HR factor, and 92 K factor. Story would be leaving one of the best hitter's parks for one of the best pitcher's parks.

Conclusions

The 28-year-old Trevor Story will remain a fantasy force by combining HR and SB, but he's probably more of a 25-HR bat than a 35+ power threat. His batting average is also likely to settle closer to .260 than .290, making him a slight plus as opposed to the difference-maker he used to be. You might want to trade him now if you can get full value for his name, but astute managers may want to wait until we know where he will play out the season before dealing him. Oakland would take a bite out of his value, but both Cincinnati and Yankee Stadium are hitter's parks if he winds up elsewhere.

Considering his home-road splits are both stark and likely not predictive of how his season plays out if he leaves Colorado, the best play may be to acquire him on the cheap after he's traded. He won't put up his 2019 numbers, but a .260 hitter with 25 HR and 30 SB is still a Champ on most rosters.

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