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Do the hot starts of late bloomers Spencer Horwitz (Blue Jays) and Ben Rice (Yankees) make them fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value.
Fantasy managers in on-base percentage or points formats are in luck. Two of the most interesting names broadly available on waivers, Spencer Horwitz and Ben Rice, have plate discipline as their carrying skills. Both offer multipositional eligibility and are off to hot starts.
Both are also relative unknowns in fantasy circles, so managers probably don't know what to expect from them moving forward. Do they steal bases? Will they hit for power?
Horwitz is 26 and Rice is 25, so we have extensive MiLB resumes to help us answer these questions. Without further ado, let's take a closer look at these two.
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Spencer Horwitz (1B/2B, TOR) 9% Rostered
Horwitz is hitting .366/.480/.561 with two homers in 50 PAs as a Blue Jay, generally hitting first or second in Toronto's lineup. His .382 BABIP is obviously unsustainable, but his plate discipline has been outstanding with an 18% BB% against a 10% K%.
The good news is that Horwitz's plate discipline is the real deal. He logged 16 PAs with Double-A (New Hampshire) in 2021, a sample too small to do anything with. He returned to the level in 2022 and hit .297/.413/.517 with 10 homers and three steals in 281 PAs. His 15.3% BB% jumps off the page, and his 19.2% K% was solid too.
The performance earned Horwitz a promotion to Triple-A (Buffalo) and he responded well, hitting .246/.361/.363 with two homers and four steals across 202 PAs. His 14.9% BB% and 20.3% K% were virtual repeats of his Double-A rates despite the uptick in competition.
Horwitz returned to Buffalo in 2023 and performed even better, posting a .337/.450/.495 line with 10 homers and nine steals over 484 PAs. His plate discipline improved with a 16.1% BB% that exceeded his 14.9% K%. We have more granular plate discipline data for Triple-A in 2023 and beyond, and Horwitz was impressive with a 28.8% chase rate and 7.7% SwStr%. Toronto rewarded Horwitz with 44 PAs in the Show, but it was back to Buffalo to begin 2024.
He hit .335/.456/.514 with four homers and three steals in 259 PAs. Miraculously, Horwitz improved his plate discipline yet again. His 17% BB% bested his 15.8% K%, and it was backed by an elite 21.9% chase rate and 6.4% SwStr%. Horwitz has an advanced plate approach that should translate immediately to the major leagues.
The bad news is that Horwitz is a one-trick pony. He was never regarded as a huge prospect, being selected 717th overall in the 2019 draft and failing to crack the top 100 prospects for any major publication. His MiLB performance carries the asterisk of being old for his level, and his scouting report is bland:
Horwitz's Statcast Sprint Speed of 24.1 feet/sec ranks in the second percentile, so fantasy managers shouldn't count on steals even though he swiped a handful on the farm. That's slower than the average catcher, hurting his BABIP potential. Similarly, Horwitz's highest FB% as a minor leaguer was 33.5%. His swing doesn't produce the loft necessary for big-time power numbers.
As such, we know who Horwitz is. His 6% SwStr% and 23.7% chase rate are supported by his minor league numbers, so he should deliver a strong OBP. Sadly, it'll be an empty OBP since he won't hit many homers or steal bases. He's a Champ if you only need OBP but a Chump if you're searching for a more well-rounded contributor.
Ben Rice (C/1B, NYY) 23% Rostered
Rice is hitting .294/.381/.294 in 21 PAs as a Yankee, and fantasy managers get excited whenever somebody with catcher eligibility hits at all. Yankee prospects receive more hype than most, so it's unsurprising that Rice is rostered in nearly triple the leagues Horwitz is.
A peek at Rice's MiLB credentials reveals strong plate discipline. He first reached the High Minors with Double-A (Somerset) in 2023, slashing .327/.401/.648 with 16 HR and seven steals in 222 PAs. His 9.5% BB% and 18.9% K% were more than respectable, and his 40.9% FB% was high enough to believe in his power. His 70% success rate on SB attempts was also promising for a catcher.
Rice returned to Somerset to begin 2024 and saw his line regress to .261/.382/.510 with 12 homers and eight steals in 218 PAs. However, the dropoff was entirely the result of a 60-point decline in BABIP (from .345 to .285). His plate discipline was similar with a 14.7% BB% against a 21.1% K%, and his 37.3% FB% was solid if unspectacular. He wasn't caught stealing a single time, either.
Rice earned a promotion to Triple-A (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) and hit .333/.440/.619 with three homers and a steal in 50 PAs. The sample was small, but his 16% BB% and 20% K% still impressed. Rice's BB% and K% are both 14.3% in the Show, and that's supported by his 20.5% chase rate, 9.0% SwStr%, and minor league resume.
The question isn't Rice's performance but rather how well it will translate in the Bronx. He only has 50 PAs at Triple-A and was old for Double-A, so he bullied younger opponents while remaining relatively untested against advanced competition. Likewise, scouts aren't enamored with Rice. He was drafted 363rd overall in 2021 and has a meh scouting report:
Rice won't catch on the Yankees, so 1B and DH are his only positions. Lefties dominated him on the farm, so the strong side of a platoon is the best-case scenario for his playing time. It remains to be seen if he'll get that, however.
DJ LeMahieu is off the IL and the club acquired J.D. Davis from the Athletics, so the Yanks have three mouths to feed between two corner infield spots. The DH spot likely won't come into play as the team wants to use Trent Grisham in center with Giancarlo Stanton out, meaning the DH will be one of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, or Alex Verdugo most nights.
Rice offers intriguing upside as a catcher-eligible player who won't actually catch, but we don't yet know how often he'll play or whether he can handle MLB pitching. New York has a strong lineup, but Rice likely won't bat in the heart of it. Whether he's a Champ or a Chump boils down to how he's used, but you probably have to roster him now if you could use a second catcher.
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