RADIO
It is Sunday again, meaning that fantasy owners in leagues with weekly lineup changes are scouring the waiver wire for arms scheduled to make two starts. This is a fine strategy, as the extra work can give you a boost in counting stats such as wins and strikeouts. It can also blow up in your face, however, as two starts mean two opportunities to have a mediocre arm screw up your ratios.
Therefore, it is imperative to stream only pitchers poised for success in their two-start week. The best way to determine this is to consider both a pitcher's opponents and his individual merits. With this in mind, let's take a closer look at two seemingly appealing two-start arms for the week of 4/24: Robert Gsellman and Luis Severino.
As always, ownership rates provided are from FleaFlicker formats.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Robert Gsellman (SP, NYM) 12% Owned
Gsellman was one of the pitchers who came out of nowhere to help the injured Mets rotation last year, posting a 4-2 record to go with a 2.42 ERA in 44 2/3 IP. He was hyped considerably this past offseason as a result, though his 3.38 xFIP was not nearly as impressive. He beat his peripherals at Double-A last year too, posting a 2.71 ERA against an xFIP of 3.59. He is currently doing the reverse of last year, as his surface ERA of 5.09 masks an impressive xFIP of 2.98. Who is the real Robert Gsellman?
The answer is the one you do not want on your fantasy team. Gsellman's K% of 22.7 percent last year was a professional best, and it barely moved the needle in fantasy. It's up to 25.3 percent in this year's tiny sample, but the underlying SwStr% (7.5 percent) suggests that it is a mirage. Gsellman simply lacks the arsenal to K a ton of batters.
He features a 2-seamer (thrown 53.5 percent of the time), a slider (11.2 percent usage), and a curve (13.9 percent). Of the three, only the famed Warthen Slider is any good for strikeouts (18.4 percent career SwStr%, 39.3 percent chase rate). He threw this pitch 20.5 percent of the time last season, meaning that he has roughly halved his usage of his best strikeout pitch this year. The 2-seamer (5.8 percent SwStr%) and curve (7.6 percent SwStr%) are never yielding Ks, so if you need strikeouts you can stop reading now.
Gsellman also won't help your ratios. He is an extreme ground ball guy (career GB% of 54.1 percent) in a home park that does not allow enough homers to mandate it. The Mets infield defense is also atrocious, with both middle infielders (Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera) currently in a multi-way tie for dead last in the league in Defensive Runs Saved at -4 each. Gsellman is at the mercy of his infielders, meaning that a large discrepancy should be expected between his actual results and fielding independent metrics moving forward.
Finally, Gsellman's matchups are not great. The Braves are not the auto-exploit they were at this point last year, while Washington is one of the better teams in the NL with Trea Turner returning to their lineup. You should look elsewhere for pitching help this week.
Verdict: Chump
Luis Severino (SP, NYY) 32% Owned
Last year was not good for Severino owners, as he stumbled to a 5.83 ERA (4.04 xFIP) in 71 IP. This year, his xFIP (1.68) is once again better than his ERA (4.05). The ERA is playable while the xFIP, rooted in a K% of 35.5 percent, gives him considerable fantasy appeal. This might be the last week he's eligible as a waiver wire streamer.
Severino was an elite strikeout artist in the minors until he reached Triple-A. When he first reached that level in 2015, his K% declined to a pedestrian 20.9 percent rate in 61 1/3 IP. Repeating the level last year, it increased to 24.2 percent over 77 1/3 IP. The growth is nice to see, but it does not support his current 35.5 percent mark at all.
A closer look at Severino's repertoire reveals that his biggest problem is inconsistency. He averages 96.8 mph on the gun, but big league hitters can usually catch up to it (SwStr% of 8.2 percent on his fastball). The biggest driver of Severino's success has been his slider (SwStr% of 19.2 percent, chase rate of 51.2 percent), but it has been in a small sample. Last year, it was not nearly as effective (11.5 percent SwStr%, 37 percent chase). Severino's change was a great pitch when he first came up in 2015 (17.6 percent SwStr%), but has been pedestrian since (9.8 percent SwStr% this year). Severino needs at least two elite K pitches to sustain his current strikeout rate, and I'm not sure he even has one.
He has changed his pitch selection, throwing more change ups(8.9 percent last year to 17.1 percent this year) at the expense of sliders (33.9 percent to 26.1 percent). In theory, this could help his slider reach heights it never has before. More likely, however, is that Severino alternates dominate outings with disasters. With last year's leader in wRC+ (Boston) and Baltimore's power bats on tap, a disaster seems especially likely this week. Severino's early season performance means that he needs to be owned, but you should probably try to sell high if the opportunity arises. He's risky in shallow formats.
Verdict: Chump
