RADIO
It's easy to stop paying attention to the weaker teams this time of year, as the small portion of media coverage baseball gets with football starting up is devoted exclusively to the pennant races. The weakest teams are arguably the most interesting from a fantasy perspective, however, because they are trying to unearth the gems you are looking for to fuel your playoff run.
Consider the Chicago White Sox as an example. There is no way that they're playing in October, yet astute fantasy owners could receive a boost from unheralded Nick Delmonico for their playoff push. Likewise, Lucas Giolito was summoned to the major leagues with little fanfare to make his 2017 debut. Let's take a closer look at what the White Sox have to offer in fantasy.
Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo! leagues.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Nick Delmonico (OF, CWS) 20% Owned
Raise your hand if you knew that Delmonico was slashing .329/.434/.614 with six homers and a pair of swipes over the first 83 PAs of big league career. No lying! Nothing in his minor league track record suggests that Delmonico is actually this good, but he might be good enough to provide a little help.
Delmonico hit an uninspiring .262/.347/.421 with 12 HR and four steals in 429 PAs at Triple-A this season, a slight improvement over the .246/.320/.385 with seven dingers and two steals he put up over 295 PAs at the level last season. He earned last year's promotion by dominating Double-A to the tune of .338/.397/.676 with 10 HR and a steal over 159 PAs. The performance sticks out like a sore thumb on Delmonico's player page, but it is there and shouldn't be completely discounted.
A closer look at Delmonico's indicators should let us separate the talent from the luck. Let's start with his power stroke. Delmonico's FB% of 37% is solid, especially since fly balls tend to do well at Guaranteed Rate Field. His 29.5% FB% before his promotion creates some skepticism that he can maintain a rate this high over a larger sample, but his 44.1% FB% at Triple-A last season suggests that he knows how to lift the ball. With all of the fly ball revolution talk, Delmonico seems likely to continue hitting an above average number of airborne baseballs.
Sadly, his HR/FB is almost certainly due for significant regression. His 30% mark would set a professional best, surpassing the 27.8% rate he produced during his magical PAs at Double-A last season. His average airborne exit velocity thus far is nothing special (91.3 mph), nor does he produce Barrels at an above average clip (5.3% Brls/BBE). That said, there is one positive indicator here. He has pulled a ton of his fly balls so far (40%), a fact that should help him maximize his home park if he can keep it up. His HR/FB at Triple-A was 14%, suggesting moderate power with upside thanks to his home park.
His batting average is supported by excellent plate discipline and a .333 BABIP. A 14.5% BB% paired with a 15.7% K% is nothing short of elite, though the walk rate would be a professional best over a full season. Still, his underlying chase rate of 25.4% and emerging power support an elevated BB%. His favorable K% is similarly supported by a 17% rate at Triple-A before his call-up and an 8.9% SwStr%. Plate discipline metrics are among the fastest to stabilize, and this profile looks legitimate.
His BABIP is... interesting. He is popping out much less frequently than he did in the minors (10% IFFB% vs. 20.9% at Triple-A this year), so more pop-ups are likely moving forward. His .261 BABIP on ground balls is rooted in consistently weak contact, as evidenced by an average grounded exit velocity of just 77.8 mph. This could allow him to regularly make it to first base before an opposing fielder can get the ball and throw it over there. This "skill" could prove sustainable, though his .296 BABIP at Triple-A was just average.
He has pulled relatively few grounders so far (47.8%), so the shift should not rob him of too many hits. Delmonico's line drives have produced at a well below average rate (.545 BABIP) despite a reasonable LD% (20.4%), potentially giving Delmonico some room to mitigate regression elsewhere. Delmonico can probably run a .310 BABIP or so the rest of the way, a high enough figure to be a real batting average asset with his refusal to strikeout.
The White Sox have taken to hitting the 25-year old cleanup on most days, so he should produce as many counting stats as can reasonably be expected from the team. He also has a pair of appearances at first base this season, creating the possibility of dual positional eligibility in the future. Delmonico is not the All-Star caliber bat he's looked like so far, but he can still help a fantasy roster.
Verdict: Champ
Lucas Giolito (SP, CWS) 21% Owned
Giolito was meh in his 2017 debut, going six innings and allowing six hits (three of which were homers) with only four strikeouts. Control has been a frequent problem for Giolito in the past, so it was nice to see him avoid walks. Still, the start wasn't quite what fantasy owners were hoping to see out of him.
The 23-year old has consistently posted strong seasons in the upper minors. His 4.48 ERA at Triple-A this year masked a much better 3.85 xFIP over 128 2/3 IP. His 24.3% K% was solid, though his 10.7% BB% was a little high. All of the traditional "luck" metrics were neutral (73.8% strand rate, 14.4% HR/FB) or worked against him (.312 BABIP), so there are no obvious reasons preventing Giolito from performing similarly in the major leagues.
Giolito actually figured out the minors a while ago. His first taste of Double-A in 2015 consisted of 47 1/3 IP of 3.80 ERA (3.37 xFIP) baseball, with very few homers allowed (4.4% HR/FB) and an inflated BABIP (.341). His 22.3% K% was mediocre, especially when paired with a 8.4% BB%. He repeated the favorable HR/FB (3.8%) in 71 IP at the level last year on his way to a 3.17 ERA and 3.69 xFIP. His BABIP was high again (.323) and his strand rate was a tad low (66.5%). His K% (23%) and BB% (10.9%) remained pedestrian, but the results were there to justify a promotion to Triple-A.
The Nationals exposed Giolito to Triple-A for 37.1 IP last season, over which he produced an excellent 2.17 ERA, still strong 2.51 xFIP, and average 14.3% HR/FB. His strand rate was high (82%), but he finally brought his BABIP under control (.295). Best of all, he finally produced the K% (26.9%) that his raw stuff always suggested he could while simultaneously cutting down his walk rate (6.7% BB%). This season could be seen as a step in the wrong direction after last season's numbers, but he still has enticing stuff. He approached 96 mph in the first inning of his MLB start, though lost velocity as the game wore on.
To date, Giolito's MLB performance pales in comparison to his minor league work. He has a 6.59 ERA (5.51 xFIP) over 27 1/3 career IP, with a subpar K% (12%) nearly equivalent to his BB% (9.6%). He has also struggled mightily with the long ball (32.3% career HR/FB), a rate that shouldn't be sustainable for anyone with the talent to reach the big leagues over a larger sample. In fact, Giolito actually excels at the one thing that should be able to control the power game: ground balls.
Giolito has posted FB% rates better than league average at every minor league stop. He had a 33.1% rate in his first taste of Double-A paired with a 26.7% IFFB% that made a quarter of them harmless. He didn't induce quite as many pop-ups when repeating the level last year (13.5% IFFB%), but allowed fewer fly balls to make up for it (26.8% FB%). His 21.9% FB% and 19% IFFB% were excellent in his first taste of Triple-A, and the elite pop-up rate returned this season (23.7% IFFB%) at the expense of a slightly higher FB% (33.8%).
He has a career 33.7% FB% at the MLB level, so this skill is translating. The pop-ups have disappeared (6.5% career IFFB%), but that should regress as he gains experience at the highest level. Giolito was not particularly susceptible to the long ball at Triple-A and prevented them entirely at Double-A, so this does not look like a contact quality issue. Giolito should have much better results when the ball starts staying in the yard.
This does not suggest that Giolito is a finished product. Guaranteed Rate Field is a terrible place to hope for HR/FB regression, and whatever strikeout pitch he relied on in the minors has eluded Pitch Info so far. His best offering is a change with a 14.3% SwStr%, but a low 31.3% chase rate prevents it from becoming a put away pitch. His heat sports a career Zone% of 55.6%, so he should be able to overcome the inflated BB% numbers that plagued him in the minors. He just needs to find a secondary pitch to complement it.
If you are in a tight ERA race or have a large enough lead to play very conservatively, Giolito isn't for you. He's a high upside lottery ticket who may be undervalued in certain circles right now. That has value for at least one roster in every league, so he gets a Champ tag.
Verdict: Champ
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