🖥 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Nick Delmonico & Lucas Giolito

It's easy to stop paying attention to the weaker teams this time of year, as the small portion of media coverage baseball gets with football starting up is devoted exclusively to the pennant races. The weakest teams are arguably the most interesting from a fantasy perspective, however, because they are trying to unearth the gems you are looking for to fuel your playoff run.

Consider the Chicago White Sox as an example. There is no way that they're playing in October, yet astute fantasy owners could receive a boost from unheralded Nick Delmonico for their playoff push. Likewise, Lucas Giolito was summoned to the major leagues with little fanfare to make his 2017 debut. Let's take a closer look at what the White Sox have to offer in fantasy.

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo! leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Nick Delmonico (OF, CWS) 20% Owned

Raise your hand if you knew that Delmonico was slashing .329/.434/.614 with six homers and a pair of swipes over the first 83 PAs of big league career. No lying! Nothing in his minor league track record suggests that Delmonico is actually this good, but he might be good enough to provide a little help.

Delmonico hit an uninspiring .262/.347/.421 with 12 HR and four steals in 429 PAs at Triple-A this season, a slight improvement over the .246/.320/.385 with seven dingers and two steals he put up over 295 PAs at the level last season. He earned last year's promotion by dominating Double-A to the tune of .338/.397/.676 with 10 HR and a steal over 159 PAs. The performance sticks out like a sore thumb on Delmonico's player page, but it is there and shouldn't be completely discounted.

A closer look at Delmonico's indicators should let us separate the talent from the luck. Let's start with his power stroke. Delmonico's FB% of 37% is solid, especially since fly balls tend to do well at Guaranteed Rate Field. His 29.5% FB% before his promotion creates some skepticism that he can maintain a rate this high over a larger sample, but his 44.1% FB% at Triple-A last season suggests that he knows how to lift the ball. With all of the fly ball revolution talk, Delmonico seems likely to continue hitting an above average number of airborne baseballs.

Sadly, his HR/FB is almost certainly due for significant regression. His 30% mark would set a professional best, surpassing the 27.8% rate he produced during his magical PAs at Double-A last season. His average airborne exit velocity thus far is nothing special (91.3 mph), nor does he produce Barrels at an above average clip (5.3% Brls/BBE). That said, there is one positive indicator here. He has pulled a ton of his fly balls so far (40%), a fact that should help him maximize his home park if he can keep it up. His HR/FB at Triple-A was 14%, suggesting moderate power with upside thanks to his home park.

His batting average is supported by excellent plate discipline and a .333 BABIP. A 14.5% BB% paired with a 15.7% K% is nothing short of elite, though the walk rate would be a professional best over a full season. Still, his underlying chase rate of 25.4% and emerging power support an elevated BB%. His favorable K% is similarly supported by a 17% rate at Triple-A before his call-up and an 8.9% SwStr%. Plate discipline metrics are among the fastest to stabilize, and this profile looks legitimate.

His BABIP is... interesting. He is popping out much less frequently than he did in the minors (10% IFFB% vs. 20.9% at Triple-A this year), so more pop-ups are likely moving forward. His .261 BABIP on ground balls is rooted in consistently weak contact, as evidenced by an average grounded exit velocity of just 77.8 mph. This could allow him to regularly make it to first base before an opposing fielder can get the ball and throw it over there. This "skill" could prove sustainable, though his .296 BABIP at Triple-A was just average.

He has pulled relatively few grounders so far (47.8%), so the shift should not rob him of too many hits. Delmonico's line drives have produced at a well below average rate (.545 BABIP) despite a reasonable LD% (20.4%), potentially giving Delmonico some room to mitigate regression elsewhere. Delmonico can probably run a .310 BABIP or so the rest of the way, a high enough figure to be a real batting average asset with his refusal to strikeout.

The White Sox have taken to hitting the 25-year old cleanup on most days, so he should produce as many counting stats as can reasonably be expected from the team. He also has a pair of appearances at first base this season, creating the possibility of dual positional eligibility in the future. Delmonico is not the All-Star caliber bat he's looked like so far, but he can still help a fantasy roster.

Verdict: Champ

Lucas Giolito (SP, CWS) 21% Owned

Giolito was meh in his 2017 debut, going six innings and allowing six hits (three of which were homers) with only four strikeouts. Control has been a frequent problem for Giolito in the past, so it was nice to see him avoid walks. Still, the start wasn't quite what fantasy owners were hoping to see out of him.

The 23-year old has consistently posted strong seasons in the upper minors. His 4.48 ERA at Triple-A this year masked a much better 3.85 xFIP over 128 2/3 IP. His 24.3% K% was solid, though his 10.7% BB% was a little high. All of the traditional "luck" metrics were neutral (73.8% strand rate, 14.4% HR/FB) or worked against him (.312 BABIP), so there are no obvious reasons preventing Giolito from performing similarly in the major leagues.

Giolito actually figured out the minors a while ago. His first taste of Double-A in 2015 consisted of 47 1/3 IP of 3.80 ERA (3.37 xFIP) baseball, with very few homers allowed (4.4% HR/FB) and an inflated BABIP (.341). His 22.3% K% was mediocre, especially when paired with a 8.4% BB%. He repeated the favorable HR/FB (3.8%) in 71 IP at the level last year on his way to a 3.17 ERA and 3.69 xFIP. His BABIP was high again (.323) and his strand rate was a tad low (66.5%). His K% (23%) and BB% (10.9%) remained pedestrian, but the results were there to justify a promotion to Triple-A.

The Nationals exposed Giolito to Triple-A for 37.1 IP last season, over which he produced an excellent 2.17 ERA, still strong 2.51 xFIP, and average 14.3% HR/FB. His strand rate was high (82%), but he finally brought his BABIP under control (.295). Best of all, he finally produced the K% (26.9%) that his raw stuff always suggested he could while simultaneously cutting down his walk rate (6.7% BB%). This season could be seen as a step in the wrong direction after last season's numbers, but he still has enticing stuff. He approached 96 mph in the first inning of his MLB start, though lost velocity as the game wore on.

To date, Giolito's MLB performance pales in comparison to his minor league work. He has a 6.59 ERA (5.51 xFIP) over 27 1/3 career IP, with a subpar K% (12%) nearly equivalent to his BB% (9.6%). He has also struggled mightily with the long ball (32.3% career HR/FB), a rate that shouldn't be sustainable for anyone with the talent to reach the big leagues over a larger sample. In fact, Giolito actually excels at the one thing that should be able to control the power game: ground balls.

Giolito has posted FB% rates better than league average at every minor league stop. He had a 33.1% rate in his first taste of Double-A paired with a 26.7% IFFB% that made a quarter of them harmless. He didn't induce quite as many pop-ups when repeating the level last year (13.5% IFFB%), but allowed fewer fly balls to make up for it (26.8% FB%). His 21.9% FB% and 19% IFFB% were excellent in his first taste of Triple-A, and the elite pop-up rate returned this season (23.7% IFFB%) at the expense of a slightly higher FB% (33.8%).

He has a career 33.7% FB% at the MLB level, so this skill is translating. The pop-ups have disappeared (6.5% career IFFB%), but that should regress as he gains experience at the highest level. Giolito was not particularly susceptible to the long ball at Triple-A and prevented them entirely at Double-A, so this does not look like a contact quality issue. Giolito should have much better results when the ball starts staying in the yard.

This does not suggest that Giolito is a finished product. Guaranteed Rate Field is a terrible place to hope for HR/FB regression, and whatever strikeout pitch he relied on in the minors has eluded Pitch Info so far. His best offering is a change with a 14.3% SwStr%, but a low 31.3% chase rate prevents it from becoming a put away pitch. His heat sports a career Zone% of 55.6%, so he should be able to overcome the inflated BB% numbers that plagued him in the minors. He just needs to find a secondary pitch to complement it.

If you are in a tight ERA race or have a large enough lead to play very conservatively, Giolito isn't for you. He's a high upside lottery ticket who may be undervalued in certain circles right now. That has value for at least one roster in every league, so he gets a Champ tag.

Verdict: Champ

More Player Outlooks

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jordan Eberle

Available Against Rangers
Joel Eriksson Ek

Out Monday
Joel Embiid

Considered Questionable For Monday
Brad Marchand

Misses Third Straight Game
Jamie Benn

Returns to Action Monday
Brooks Koepka

Officially Returning To PGA Tour
Tucker Kraft

Hopes to be Ready for Week 1 of Next Season
CFB

Georgia Lands Kentucky Transfer Dante Dowdell
Matthew Stafford

has "Little Sprain," Should be "Good to Go"
CFB

Sam Leavitt Expected to Sign with LSU
Green Bay Packers

Packers Expected to Work Out New Deal With Matt LaFleur in the "Coming Days"
CFB

Dylan Raiola Commits to Oregon
CFB

Isaiah Horton Landing with Texas A&M
Jet Greaves

Beats Mammoth With 25 Saves
Roman Josi

Ends Dry Spell With Three-Point Effort
Joonas Korpisalo

Shuts Door on Penguins
Jack Hughes

Has Two Helpers in Losing Effort
Tomas Hertl

Matches Vegas Record With Five Points
Justin Sourdif

Exits With Injury Versus Predators
Denton Mateychuk

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Sunday
George Kittle

Suffers Torn Achilles on Sunday
Aaron Holiday

is Moving into Starting Five
Aaron Gordon

is Available on Sunday
Christian Braun

is Downgraded to Out
Jamal Murray

is Unavailable on Sunday
Omarion Hampton

Active for Wild-Card Round Against Patriots
Kristaps Porzingis

Won't Play on Sunday
Kevin Porter Jr.

is Available to Play on Sunday
Christian Braun

Downgraded to Questionable on Sunday
Tyler Herro

to Suit Up on Sunday
Norman Powell

Ruled Out for Sunday's Game
Victor Wembanyama

Cleared for Sunday
George Kittle

Ruled Out After Non-Contact Achilles Injury
Cole Perfetti

Contributes Two Assists in Sunday's Win
Carl Grundstrom

Misses Sunday's Practice
Jrue Holiday

Cleared to Suit Up Versus New York
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Request Interview With Ejiro Evero
Josh Hart

Returning on Sunday Night
Travis Konecny

Hurt at Sunday's Practice
Thatcher Demko

Lands on Injured Reserve
Colin Miller

Injured Versus Devils
Bryan Rust

Remains Out Sunday
Morgan Geekie

Won't Play Sunday
Los Angeles Rams

Mike LaFleur to Interview With Raiders and Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers

Steelers Open to Re-Signing Aaron Rodgers?
Matthew Stafford

X-Rays Come Back Negative
Mark Stone

Extends Goal Streak With Empty-Netter
Nikita Kucherov

Has Four-Point Outing Saturday
David Pastrnak

Records Six Assists in Big Win
MacKenzie Gore

Yankees Pursuing Trade for MacKenzie Gore
Alex Bregman

Cubs Sign Alex Bregman to Five-Year, $175 Millon Contract
Chet Holmgren

Available Sunday
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Suspended for Three Games for Attempting to Strike Another Player
Kristaps Porzingis

May Return Sunday
Zaccharie Risacher

to Miss Second Consecutive Game Sunday
Kevin Porter Jr.

Considered Probable for Sunday
Aaron Gordon

Likely to Play Sunday
Christian Braun

Considered Probable for Sunday
Spencer Jones

May Miss Another Game Sunday
Freddie Freeman

Withdraws from World Baseball Classic
Max Kepler

Receives 80-Game PED Suspension
CFB

Cam Coleman Visiting Alabama on Friday
Omarion Hampton

Expects to Play Sunday Night
CFB

Eric Singleton Jr. Enters Transfer Portal, Trending to Land at Florida
CFB

NCAA Denies Trinidad Chambliss a Sixth Year of Eligibility
Omarion Hampton

Questionable for Wild-Card Weekend
Kyle Tucker

Mets Remain in Mix for Kyle Tucker
Ketel Marte

Will Remain With Diamondbacks
Rashee Rice

to be Reviewed Under League's Conduct Policy
Daniel Jones

Colts Plan to Re-Sign Daniel Jones
Davante Adams

Off the Injury Report, Will Play Against Carolina
Bo Bichette

Phillies to Meet With Bo Bichette
Rome Odunze

Will Return for Wild-Card Game on Saturday
CFB

DJ Lagway Commits to Baylor
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Fire Head Coach Mike McDaniel
Sam LaPorta

Plans to be Back for Training Camp
Owen Caissie

Shipped to Miami as Centerpiece of Trade
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Officially Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
Rome Odunze

Plans to Play on Saturday
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Finalizing Deal to Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
New York Giants

Giants "All-In" on Hiring John Harbaugh
CFB

Jackson Arnold Signs with UNLV
CFB

Sam Leavitt Scheduled to Visit Tennessee
New York Giants

John Harbaugh Expected to be Favorite to Become New Giants Head Coach

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP