🖥 CYBER MONDAY - TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE CYBER
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Nick Delmonico & Lucas Giolito

It's easy to stop paying attention to the weaker teams this time of year, as the small portion of media coverage baseball gets with football starting up is devoted exclusively to the pennant races. The weakest teams are arguably the most interesting from a fantasy perspective, however, because they are trying to unearth the gems you are looking for to fuel your playoff run.

Consider the Chicago White Sox as an example. There is no way that they're playing in October, yet astute fantasy owners could receive a boost from unheralded Nick Delmonico for their playoff push. Likewise, Lucas Giolito was summoned to the major leagues with little fanfare to make his 2017 debut. Let's take a closer look at what the White Sox have to offer in fantasy.

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo! leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Nick Delmonico (OF, CWS) 20% Owned

Raise your hand if you knew that Delmonico was slashing .329/.434/.614 with six homers and a pair of swipes over the first 83 PAs of big league career. No lying! Nothing in his minor league track record suggests that Delmonico is actually this good, but he might be good enough to provide a little help.

Delmonico hit an uninspiring .262/.347/.421 with 12 HR and four steals in 429 PAs at Triple-A this season, a slight improvement over the .246/.320/.385 with seven dingers and two steals he put up over 295 PAs at the level last season. He earned last year's promotion by dominating Double-A to the tune of .338/.397/.676 with 10 HR and a steal over 159 PAs. The performance sticks out like a sore thumb on Delmonico's player page, but it is there and shouldn't be completely discounted.

A closer look at Delmonico's indicators should let us separate the talent from the luck. Let's start with his power stroke. Delmonico's FB% of 37% is solid, especially since fly balls tend to do well at Guaranteed Rate Field. His 29.5% FB% before his promotion creates some skepticism that he can maintain a rate this high over a larger sample, but his 44.1% FB% at Triple-A last season suggests that he knows how to lift the ball. With all of the fly ball revolution talk, Delmonico seems likely to continue hitting an above average number of airborne baseballs.

Sadly, his HR/FB is almost certainly due for significant regression. His 30% mark would set a professional best, surpassing the 27.8% rate he produced during his magical PAs at Double-A last season. His average airborne exit velocity thus far is nothing special (91.3 mph), nor does he produce Barrels at an above average clip (5.3% Brls/BBE). That said, there is one positive indicator here. He has pulled a ton of his fly balls so far (40%), a fact that should help him maximize his home park if he can keep it up. His HR/FB at Triple-A was 14%, suggesting moderate power with upside thanks to his home park.

His batting average is supported by excellent plate discipline and a .333 BABIP. A 14.5% BB% paired with a 15.7% K% is nothing short of elite, though the walk rate would be a professional best over a full season. Still, his underlying chase rate of 25.4% and emerging power support an elevated BB%. His favorable K% is similarly supported by a 17% rate at Triple-A before his call-up and an 8.9% SwStr%. Plate discipline metrics are among the fastest to stabilize, and this profile looks legitimate.

His BABIP is... interesting. He is popping out much less frequently than he did in the minors (10% IFFB% vs. 20.9% at Triple-A this year), so more pop-ups are likely moving forward. His .261 BABIP on ground balls is rooted in consistently weak contact, as evidenced by an average grounded exit velocity of just 77.8 mph. This could allow him to regularly make it to first base before an opposing fielder can get the ball and throw it over there. This "skill" could prove sustainable, though his .296 BABIP at Triple-A was just average.

He has pulled relatively few grounders so far (47.8%), so the shift should not rob him of too many hits. Delmonico's line drives have produced at a well below average rate (.545 BABIP) despite a reasonable LD% (20.4%), potentially giving Delmonico some room to mitigate regression elsewhere. Delmonico can probably run a .310 BABIP or so the rest of the way, a high enough figure to be a real batting average asset with his refusal to strikeout.

The White Sox have taken to hitting the 25-year old cleanup on most days, so he should produce as many counting stats as can reasonably be expected from the team. He also has a pair of appearances at first base this season, creating the possibility of dual positional eligibility in the future. Delmonico is not the All-Star caliber bat he's looked like so far, but he can still help a fantasy roster.

Verdict: Champ

Lucas Giolito (SP, CWS) 21% Owned

Giolito was meh in his 2017 debut, going six innings and allowing six hits (three of which were homers) with only four strikeouts. Control has been a frequent problem for Giolito in the past, so it was nice to see him avoid walks. Still, the start wasn't quite what fantasy owners were hoping to see out of him.

The 23-year old has consistently posted strong seasons in the upper minors. His 4.48 ERA at Triple-A this year masked a much better 3.85 xFIP over 128 2/3 IP. His 24.3% K% was solid, though his 10.7% BB% was a little high. All of the traditional "luck" metrics were neutral (73.8% strand rate, 14.4% HR/FB) or worked against him (.312 BABIP), so there are no obvious reasons preventing Giolito from performing similarly in the major leagues.

Giolito actually figured out the minors a while ago. His first taste of Double-A in 2015 consisted of 47 1/3 IP of 3.80 ERA (3.37 xFIP) baseball, with very few homers allowed (4.4% HR/FB) and an inflated BABIP (.341). His 22.3% K% was mediocre, especially when paired with a 8.4% BB%. He repeated the favorable HR/FB (3.8%) in 71 IP at the level last year on his way to a 3.17 ERA and 3.69 xFIP. His BABIP was high again (.323) and his strand rate was a tad low (66.5%). His K% (23%) and BB% (10.9%) remained pedestrian, but the results were there to justify a promotion to Triple-A.

The Nationals exposed Giolito to Triple-A for 37.1 IP last season, over which he produced an excellent 2.17 ERA, still strong 2.51 xFIP, and average 14.3% HR/FB. His strand rate was high (82%), but he finally brought his BABIP under control (.295). Best of all, he finally produced the K% (26.9%) that his raw stuff always suggested he could while simultaneously cutting down his walk rate (6.7% BB%). This season could be seen as a step in the wrong direction after last season's numbers, but he still has enticing stuff. He approached 96 mph in the first inning of his MLB start, though lost velocity as the game wore on.

To date, Giolito's MLB performance pales in comparison to his minor league work. He has a 6.59 ERA (5.51 xFIP) over 27 1/3 career IP, with a subpar K% (12%) nearly equivalent to his BB% (9.6%). He has also struggled mightily with the long ball (32.3% career HR/FB), a rate that shouldn't be sustainable for anyone with the talent to reach the big leagues over a larger sample. In fact, Giolito actually excels at the one thing that should be able to control the power game: ground balls.

Giolito has posted FB% rates better than league average at every minor league stop. He had a 33.1% rate in his first taste of Double-A paired with a 26.7% IFFB% that made a quarter of them harmless. He didn't induce quite as many pop-ups when repeating the level last year (13.5% IFFB%), but allowed fewer fly balls to make up for it (26.8% FB%). His 21.9% FB% and 19% IFFB% were excellent in his first taste of Triple-A, and the elite pop-up rate returned this season (23.7% IFFB%) at the expense of a slightly higher FB% (33.8%).

He has a career 33.7% FB% at the MLB level, so this skill is translating. The pop-ups have disappeared (6.5% career IFFB%), but that should regress as he gains experience at the highest level. Giolito was not particularly susceptible to the long ball at Triple-A and prevented them entirely at Double-A, so this does not look like a contact quality issue. Giolito should have much better results when the ball starts staying in the yard.

This does not suggest that Giolito is a finished product. Guaranteed Rate Field is a terrible place to hope for HR/FB regression, and whatever strikeout pitch he relied on in the minors has eluded Pitch Info so far. His best offering is a change with a 14.3% SwStr%, but a low 31.3% chase rate prevents it from becoming a put away pitch. His heat sports a career Zone% of 55.6%, so he should be able to overcome the inflated BB% numbers that plagued him in the minors. He just needs to find a secondary pitch to complement it.

If you are in a tight ERA race or have a large enough lead to play very conservatively, Giolito isn't for you. He's a high upside lottery ticket who may be undervalued in certain circles right now. That has value for at least one roster in every league, so he gets a Champ tag.

Verdict: Champ

More Player Outlooks

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Carted Off With Hip Injury on Monday Night
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
Davante Adams

Not Dealing With a Serious Injury
Brandon Miller

Unavailable on Monday
Kyler Murray

Surgery Not on the Table for Kyler Murray
Duncan Robinson

Absent Against Atlanta
Marvin Harrison Jr.

in Danger of Missing Week 14?
Jalen Duren

Back in the Lineup on Monday Evening
Noah Clowney

Cleared to Play Versus Charlotte
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Active On Monday
Danila Yurov

Won't Play on Tuesday
Michael Porter Jr.

Back in Action on Monday
Sam Merrill

Unavailable Versus Pacers
David Pastrnak

to Remain Out Tuesday
Alexandre Sarr

Won't Play Versus Milwaukee
Adam Gaudette

Iffy for Monday
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
Logan Cooley

a Game-Time Decision Monday
Josh Norris

Available Monday
Neal Pionk

Remains Out Monday
Lonzo Ball

Ruled Out on Monday
Jimmy Snuggerud

to Miss Six Weeks After Wrist Surgery
Justin Herbert

Having Hand Surgery on Monday
Steven Adams

Out Against Jazz
Kyler Murray

Cardinals Won't Open Kyler Murray's Practice Window This Week
Darius Garland

Unavailable Monday
Sauce Gardner

Not a Candidate to Go on Injured Reserve
Kristaps Porzingis

Out of Action Versus Pistons
Jayden Daniels

Not Cleared for Contact, Decision on Week 14 Status Delayed
Daniel Gafford

Sidelined Again on Monday
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful to Return in Week 14
Tee Higgins

Still in the Concussion Protocol
Drake London

"has a Chance" to Play in Week 14
J.J. McCarthy

in Line to Start in Week 14?
Aaron Jones Sr.

Not Dealing With Serious Shoulder Injury, Likely Day-to-Day
Sam Darnold

Dealing With Ankle Injury, "Should be Good" for Week 14
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
Sauce Gardner

Officially Week-to-Week with Strained Calf
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
Justin Herbert

Has Metacarpal Fracture in Left Hand
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Week 14 Availability Up in the Air
VEG

Carter Hart Expected to Make Golden Knights Debut Tuesday
Andre Drummond

Leaves Early, Status Now in Question
Pyotr Kochetkov

Remains Without Timeline For Return
Boone Jenner

Close to Returning
Tre Mann

Uncertain for Monday's Game Against Nets
Lian Bichsel

Exits With Injury Sunday
Deandre Ayton

Leaves Game With Knee Soreness
Petr Mrazek

Injured in Sunday's Loss
Adam Fox

Placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve
Brandon Williams

Questionable With Adductor Issue
P.J. Washington

Uncertain For Monday's Contest
Daniel Gafford

Expected To Miss Second Straight Game
Zach Ertz

Leads Washington in Receiving in Overtime Loss
James Cook

Handles Career-High 32 Carries for 144 Yards in Win
Egor Demin

Available Against Hornets
Justin Herbert

Planning to Play Through Broken Bone in Left Hand in Week 14
Terance Mann

in Danger of Missing Monday's Game
Sauce Gardner

Likely to Miss a "Couple of Weeks" With Calf Strain
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
CFB

Florida Poised to Land Jon Sumrall as Next Head Coach
CFB

Alex Golesh Taking Over Auburn Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Joel Hofer

Shuts Out Mammoth
Owen Tippett

Amasses Three Points in Saturday's Win
Stuart Skinner

Bounces Back With Shutout
Brock Nelson

Notches Four Points in Big Win
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Sustains Upper-Body Injury
Logan Cooley

Hurt in Saturday's Loss
Warren Foegele

Not Ready to Return Saturday
Simon Benoit

Won't Play Saturday
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract
Josh Hader

Says his Shoulder is "Back to Normal"
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks "Actively Listening" on Ketel Marte

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP