January 23, 2017

Rick Lucks analyzes Nate Karns and Jose Quintana - will they have success or regress for 2017 fantasy baseball. They can be draft values, sleepers or busts.

Pitching always seems to define my fantasy seasons, good and bad. After covering Jarrod Dyson in the last Champ/Chump, it makes sense to acknowledge that the piece Kansas City acquired is also interesting from a fantasy perspective.

Jose Quintana may be the best pitcher on the trade market, so he has been involved in his fair share of rumors as well.

Will either help fantasy rosters in 2017?

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

The Fantasy Jury Has Spoken

Nathan Karns (SP, KC)

By surface stats, Karns was an unmitigated disaster in 2017. His 6-2 record hid an atrocious 5.15 ERA. Advanced metrics offer reason for optimism, as his FIP (4.05) was far more palatable. The reason for the discrepancy seems to be an inflated .327 BABIP (.297 career BABIP) and a low strand rate of 69% (74.7% career).

Part of Karns's BABIP problem was a 23.2% LD% against, a stat that should correct itself in 2017. He was also let down by a disastrous Seattle defense that combined for -22 DRS last year. His new team had 29 team DRS last season, so his defensive support should be better. The improvement won't be as great as the differential suggests, however, as Dyson is taking 19 of Kansas City's 29 DRS with him to Seattle. Even league average defenders could help Karns a lot though.

Karns does not need too much defensive support for his 24.2% K% to matter in fantasy. His repertoire includes a knuckle curve, a change, and a heater to set the others up. The K-Curve offers a 13.3% SwStr%, 39.2% chase rate, and 42.1% Zone%, indicating that the offering is effective in and out of the zone. The change isn't a true wipeout pitch with a 35.7% chase rate, but its 18.8% SwStr% and 42.4% Zone% can help pile up Ks. His 10.8% BB% was a little high, but the fact that his K pitches work in the zone should let him cut the BBs down if he can harness them.

Kansas City is also a pretty great place to pitch. Kauffman Stadium suppresses power, and the Royals share a division with quite possibly the two worst teams in the AL: Minnesota and Chicago. Detroit can be beaten by avoiding their star power as well, so three of four divisional opponents present favorable matchups. At worst, Karns is a streamable arm with a schedule that should produce a lot of streaming opportunities. Should he reach his potential, you'll even want to use him against powerhouse Cleveland.

Verdict: Champ

Jose Quintana (SP, CWS)

For many years, Quintana was an undervalued fantasy asset. Just when he began to garner the respect he deserved, his skills began to erode. His 13-12 record with a 3.20 ERA and 21.6% K% were usable in fantasy, but nothing more than that. No one won a competitive league by drafting Quintana last year.

It looks like 2017 could be worse. A 79% LOB% saved Quintana from his 4.03 xFIP last year, but it probably won't repeat. If Quintana posts a league average or worse ERA, there will not be much reason to roster him in fantasy. Last year's league average strikeout rate is probably Quintana's best possible performance in the category. Quite frankly, his stuff is not great.

His arsenal is highlighted by a curve with an 11.4% SwStr%, 32.8% chase rate, and 37.7% Zone%. That's the good pitch, and it fails to generate whiffs outside the zone or earn strikes in the zone with any regularity. His change is completely useless, as it is seldom a strike (25.8% Zone%), rarely chased (26.5%), and almost never misses bats (6.1% SwStr%). The 154 wRC+ it allowed is way too high as well. Neither of Quintana's fastballs offers strikeout upside, so a K% closer to his career 19.9% rate should be expected moving forward. Fantasy owners need a lot more from a player with Quintana's name recognition.

Chicago is also unlikely to provide a substantial amount of Ws, and he will spend two-thirds of the season there even if he gets traded at the deadline. The Cell, now called Guaranteed Rate Field, is also a terrible place to pitch. Quintana has avoided getting burned too badly by inducing a ton of ground balls, but his FB% jumped from 29.7% in 2015 to 38.7% last year. The resulting HR/FB of 9.5% was not too bad, but rostering fly ball guys in that stadium is playing with fire. Don't pay a SP2 price for a SP4-caliber arm.

Verdict: Chump