X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Nate Karns and Jose Quintana

Rick Lucks analyzes Nate Karns and Jose Quintana - will they have success or regress for 2017 fantasy baseball. They can be draft values, sleepers or busts.

Pitching always seems to define my fantasy seasons, good and bad. After covering Jarrod Dyson in the last Champ/Chump, it makes sense to acknowledge that the piece Kansas City acquired is also interesting from a fantasy perspective.

Jose Quintana may be the best pitcher on the trade market, so he has been involved in his fair share of rumors as well.

Will either help fantasy rosters in 2017?

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury Has Spoken

Nathan Karns (SP, KC)

By surface stats, Karns was an unmitigated disaster in 2017. His 6-2 record hid an atrocious 5.15 ERA. Advanced metrics offer reason for optimism, as his FIP (4.05) was far more palatable. The reason for the discrepancy seems to be an inflated .327 BABIP (.297 career BABIP) and a low strand rate of 69% (74.7% career).

Part of Karns's BABIP problem was a 23.2% LD% against, a stat that should correct itself in 2017. He was also let down by a disastrous Seattle defense that combined for -22 DRS last year. His new team had 29 team DRS last season, so his defensive support should be better. The improvement won't be as great as the differential suggests, however, as Dyson is taking 19 of Kansas City's 29 DRS with him to Seattle. Even league average defenders could help Karns a lot though.

Karns does not need too much defensive support for his 24.2% K% to matter in fantasy. His repertoire includes a knuckle curve, a change, and a heater to set the others up. The K-Curve offers a 13.3% SwStr%, 39.2% chase rate, and 42.1% Zone%, indicating that the offering is effective in and out of the zone. The change isn't a true wipeout pitch with a 35.7% chase rate, but its 18.8% SwStr% and 42.4% Zone% can help pile up Ks. His 10.8% BB% was a little high, but the fact that his K pitches work in the zone should let him cut the BBs down if he can harness them.

Kansas City is also a pretty great place to pitch. Kauffman Stadium suppresses power, and the Royals share a division with quite possibly the two worst teams in the AL: Minnesota and Chicago. Detroit can be beaten by avoiding their star power as well, so three of four divisional opponents present favorable matchups. At worst, Karns is a streamable arm with a schedule that should produce a lot of streaming opportunities. Should he reach his potential, you'll even want to use him against powerhouse Cleveland.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jose Quintana (SP, CWS)

For many years, Quintana was an undervalued fantasy asset. Just when he began to garner the respect he deserved, his skills began to erode. His 13-12 record with a 3.20 ERA and 21.6% K% were usable in fantasy, but nothing more than that. No one won a competitive league by drafting Quintana last year.

It looks like 2017 could be worse. A 79% LOB% saved Quintana from his 4.03 xFIP last year, but it probably won't repeat. If Quintana posts a league average or worse ERA, there will not be much reason to roster him in fantasy. Last year's league average strikeout rate is probably Quintana's best possible performance in the category. Quite frankly, his stuff is not great.

His arsenal is highlighted by a curve with an 11.4% SwStr%, 32.8% chase rate, and 37.7% Zone%. That's the good pitch, and it fails to generate whiffs outside the zone or earn strikes in the zone with any regularity. His change is completely useless, as it is seldom a strike (25.8% Zone%), rarely chased (26.5%), and almost never misses bats (6.1% SwStr%). The 154 wRC+ it allowed is way too high as well. Neither of Quintana's fastballs offers strikeout upside, so a K% closer to his career 19.9% rate should be expected moving forward. Fantasy owners need a lot more from a player with Quintana's name recognition.

Chicago is also unlikely to provide a substantial amount of Ws, and he will spend two-thirds of the season there even if he gets traded at the deadline. The Cell, now called Guaranteed Rate Field, is also a terrible place to pitch. Quintana has avoided getting burned too badly by inducing a ton of ground balls, but his FB% jumped from 29.7% in 2015 to 38.7% last year. The resulting HR/FB of 9.5% was not too bad, but rostering fly ball guys in that stadium is playing with fire. Don't pay a SP2 price for a SP4-caliber arm.

Verdict: Chump


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nikola Jokić21 mins ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play On Friday
Hunter Brown28 mins ago

Registers Eight Strikeouts
Jonathan Kuminga32 mins ago

Back On Thursday Night
Christian Walker34 mins ago

Mashes Homer In Win
Freddie Freeman43 mins ago

Heading To Injured List
Miles Boykin2 hours ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson3 hours ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield3 hours ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum3 hours ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George3 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Richaun Holmes3 hours ago

Out Versus Magic
Khris Middleton3 hours ago

Out Again Thursday Versus Magic
D'Angelo Russell3 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Noah Clowney4 hours ago

Done For Rest Of The Season
Jordan Poole4 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Scottie Barnes4 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Cedric Mullins4 hours ago

Goes Deep In Loss To Boston
Jonathan Drouin4 hours ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Tyrese Maxey4 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of Season
Alexandar Georgiev4 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Henry Thrun4 hours ago

Returns From Nine-Game Absence Thursday
Taijuan Walker4 hours ago

Blanks Rockies For Six Innings To Earn First Win
Tanner Houck4 hours ago

Picks Up No-Decision In Four-Inning Outing
Olli Määttä4 hours ago

Olli Maatta Returns To Utah Lineup Thursday
Alex Bregman4 hours ago

Fills The Box Score In Win Over Orioles
Dylan Guenther4 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Jorge Polanco5 hours ago

Reinstated From Paternity List
Anthony Duclair5 hours ago

Takes Leave Of Absence
Carlos Rodriguez5 hours ago

Joining Brewers On Thursday
Alex Pietrangelo5 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Brady Tkachuk5 hours ago

Out On Thursday
DJ LeMahieu5 hours ago

"About A Week Away" From Taking Live At-Bats
Devin Williams5 hours ago

To Return From Paternity List On Friday
Jake Fraley5 hours ago

Gavin Lux, Jake Fraley Sitting Against A Lefty
Trey McBride5 hours ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith6 hours ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
Jeferson Quero6 hours ago

Set Back With Hamstring Injury
Eguy Rosario6 hours ago

Clears Waivers, Outrighted To Triple-A
Xavier Isaac6 hours ago

Rays Hopeful Xavier Isaac Will Return In A Couple Of Weeks
Angel Genao7 hours ago

Won't Return Until June
Austin Wells7 hours ago

Being Rested On Thursday
Paul Goldschmidt7 hours ago

Sitting In Finale Against Arizona
Masataka Yoshida7 hours ago

Not Ready For Rehab Assignment
Edward Cabrera7 hours ago

Goes Three Innings In Rehab Start
7 hours ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Jake McCarthy7 hours ago

Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy Sitting On Thursday
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
New York Giants7 hours ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Dallas Cowboys8 hours ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Washington Commanders8 hours ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs9 hours ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints9 hours ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Joe Milton III12 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons12 hours ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson13 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes13 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday
Immanuel Quickley13 hours ago

Takes Thursday Off
Jakob Poeltl13 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard13 hours ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
LeBron James13 hours ago

Probable Thursday
Jared McCann15 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake15 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin15 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov15 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe15 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin15 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers23 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
24 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals1 day ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell1 day ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1 day ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday1 day ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 day ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford1 day ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm1 day ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Samuel Girard1 day ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta1 day ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz1 day ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
1 day ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
1 day ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Cameron Young2 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry5 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF