X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Kendrys Morales and Jose Bautista

By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Rick Lucks analyzes Kendrys Morales and Jose Bautista - will they have success or regress for 2017 fantasy baseball. They can be draft values, sleepers or busts.

Toronto has had a polarizing offseason to say the least. Faced with the possibility of losing two of their trademark sluggers, the team jumped on DH Kendrys Morales with a long term contract to fill the void. The move was questioned at the time, and looked even worse when the market refused to pay for sluggers. They saved some face by re-signing Jose Bautista later on, but Canadian baseball fans will not enjoy watching Edwin Encarnacion in a Tribe uniform.

Toronto still projects to have a plus lineup in a favorable ballpark for offense, so fantasy owners care about the Jays more than other squads.

This edition of Champ/Chump is the first of the year to have ADP, or Average Draft Position, data from our friends at FantasyPros. The data is far from set in stone this early into draft season, but serves as a useful data point in our quest to determine whether Toronto's slugging duo will help fantasy owners in 2017. Shall we get started?

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury Has Spoken

Kendrys Morales (U, TOR) ADP: 175

Morales provided owners with sneaky power in 2016, popping 30 homers to go with a .263/.327/.468 triple slash line. Replicating it would be great for fantasy purposes, but I don't think Morales can do it even after exchanging Kansas City's cavernous stadium for Toronto's homer dome.

His increased power production was the result of a HR/FB spike (13.5% in 2015, 19% last year) without any growth in FB% (34.7% to 35.7%). Generally, FB% is a better indicator than HR/FB for future power numbers. The fact that Morales pulled fewer flies (19.6%) than his career average rate (21.7%) as his HR/FB surged makes me even more skeptical of the performance. There are 20-25 bombs here, but probably not much more than that.

His batting average could also tumble. His better than average 19.4% K% was not supported by his league average eye (33.4% O-Swing%) or SwStr% (10.7%), leading me to project a few more strikeouts in 2017. His BABIP of .283 looks like it should improve until you consider that Morales is a slow slugger who hit .236 against the shift and .351 without it. The result is likely a .250ish average that Morales may not have the pop to make up for out of a utility slot.

Ultimately, your feelings on Morales should center on your league's positional rules. He's bad with no positional eligibility, late round material if he qualifies at 1B (seven games last year), and legitimately interesting if you can use him in the OF (five games). Most leagues have a minimum games threshold of 10 or higher, so I'm calling him a Chump despite possible usefulness in less restrictive formats.

Verdict: Chump

 

Jose Bautista (OF, TOR) ADP: 115.5

Bautista had a down 2016, posting a .234/.366/.452 line with 22 big flies. In a year where reserve middle infielders cracked 20 bombs, Bautista's power was nowhere near enough to justify the batting average hit from a fantasy perspective. Sadly, I think the slugger's best days are behind him.

Bautista's HR/FB remained constant in his down year, falling from 18.4% in 2015 to 16.3% last season. His FB% plummeted, however, from 2015's 48.8% mark to last year's 41.7%. A FB% of 41.7% is still very good, but Bautista's prodigious power numbers depend on a higher rate. Age may have robbed him of the ability to hit the ball into the air at will.

The addition of Morales also forces Bautista to field regularly, straining his body to the point that he may require frequent days off. He will not accumulate counting stats on the bench, potentially biting into his fantasy value by season's end. Older players are also more prone to long DL stays, hurting Bautista's value in leagues where replacements are not readily available.

A Bautista without power is almost completely unrosterable, as his batting average is bad. He combines a pull-happy approach (.239 career average against traditional shifts) with an aversion to line drives (15.6% career LD%) to produce a career BABIP of just .266. Last year's .255 mark probably won't increase too much as a result. While the equation completely changes in an OBP league (16.8% BB%, 20.2% O-Swing% last year), Bautista seems like he'll do more harm than good relative to players with a similar Draft Day cost.

Verdict: Chump


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Lane Hutson19 mins ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin24 mins ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Eugenio Suárez6 hours ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam Tuesday
A.J. Puk6 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Michael King6 hours ago

Fans 11 In Five Shutout Innings Tuesday
Christian Yelich6 hours ago

Hits First Homer Of Season, Steals Base Tuesday
Evan Engram6 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Anthony Bender6 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Robert Hassell III6 hours ago

Has Three-Hit Day At Triple-A
Thomas Harrington7 hours ago

Hit Hard In MLB Debut Tuesday
Gunnar Henderson7 hours ago

Hits Solo Homer In Triple-A Rehab Game Tuesday
Marcelo Mayer7 hours ago

Hits First Home Run At Triple-A
Caleb Williams7 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge7 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews7 hours ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones7 hours ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin8 hours ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice8 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep8 hours ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson8 hours ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell8 hours ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao8 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry8 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey8 hours ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt8 hours ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz9 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman9 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford9 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi9 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen10 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick10 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners10 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay10 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López10 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland10 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia11 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti11 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL11 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette11 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus11 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants11 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears11 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Sam Ehlinger11 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Guerschon Yabusele12 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns12 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals12 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Jevon Carter12 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry12 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips12 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jalen Smith12 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball12 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter12 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey12 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton12 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale13 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant13 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal13 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II13 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons13 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young13 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser13 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud13 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart13 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba13 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga13 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry13 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown13 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault13 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere13 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn14 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro14 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions16 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans16 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders16 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear17 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins17 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL17 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä17 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway17 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys17 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal17 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy17 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Josh Norris17 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk18 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth19 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp19 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim20 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood20 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau20 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole20 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith24 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment24 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka24 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov1 day ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov1 day ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes1 day ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman2 days ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF