January 25, 2017

Rick Lucks analyzes Kendrys Morales and Jose Bautista - will they have success or regress for 2017 fantasy baseball. They can be draft values, sleepers or busts.

Toronto has had a polarizing offseason to say the least. Faced with the possibility of losing two of their trademark sluggers, the team jumped on DH Kendrys Morales with a long term contract to fill the void. The move was questioned at the time, and looked even worse when the market refused to pay for sluggers. They saved some face by re-signing Jose Bautista later on, but Canadian baseball fans will not enjoy watching Edwin Encarnacion in a Tribe uniform.

Toronto still projects to have a plus lineup in a favorable ballpark for offense, so fantasy owners care about the Jays more than other squads.

This edition of Champ/Chump is the first of the year to have ADP, or Average Draft Position, data from our friends at FantasyPros. The data is far from set in stone this early into draft season, but serves as a useful data point in our quest to determine whether Toronto's slugging duo will help fantasy owners in 2017. Shall we get started?

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

The Fantasy Jury Has Spoken

Kendrys Morales (U, TOR) ADP: 175

Morales provided owners with sneaky power in 2016, popping 30 homers to go with a .263/.327/.468 triple slash line. Replicating it would be great for fantasy purposes, but I don't think Morales can do it even after exchanging Kansas City's cavernous stadium for Toronto's homer dome.

His increased power production was the result of a HR/FB spike (13.5% in 2015, 19% last year) without any growth in FB% (34.7% to 35.7%). Generally, FB% is a better indicator than HR/FB for future power numbers. The fact that Morales pulled fewer flies (19.6%) than his career average rate (21.7%) as his HR/FB surged makes me even more skeptical of the performance. There are 20-25 bombs here, but probably not much more than that.

His batting average could also tumble. His better than average 19.4% K% was not supported by his league average eye (33.4% O-Swing%) or SwStr% (10.7%), leading me to project a few more strikeouts in 2017. His BABIP of .283 looks like it should improve until you consider that Morales is a slow slugger who hit .236 against the shift and .351 without it. The result is likely a .250ish average that Morales may not have the pop to make up for out of a utility slot.

Ultimately, your feelings on Morales should center on your league's positional rules. He's bad with no positional eligibility, late round material if he qualifies at 1B (seven games last year), and legitimately interesting if you can use him in the OF (five games). Most leagues have a minimum games threshold of 10 or higher, so I'm calling him a Chump despite possible usefulness in less restrictive formats.

Verdict: Chump

Jose Bautista (OF, TOR) ADP: 115.5

Bautista had a down 2016, posting a .234/.366/.452 line with 22 big flies. In a year where reserve middle infielders cracked 20 bombs, Bautista's power was nowhere near enough to justify the batting average hit from a fantasy perspective. Sadly, I think the slugger's best days are behind him.

Bautista's HR/FB remained constant in his down year, falling from 18.4% in 2015 to 16.3% last season. His FB% plummeted, however, from 2015's 48.8% mark to last year's 41.7%. A FB% of 41.7% is still very good, but Bautista's prodigious power numbers depend on a higher rate. Age may have robbed him of the ability to hit the ball into the air at will.

The addition of Morales also forces Bautista to field regularly, straining his body to the point that he may require frequent days off. He will not accumulate counting stats on the bench, potentially biting into his fantasy value by season's end. Older players are also more prone to long DL stays, hurting Bautista's value in leagues where replacements are not readily available.

A Bautista without power is almost completely unrosterable, as his batting average is bad. He combines a pull-happy approach (.239 career average against traditional shifts) with an aversion to line drives (15.6% career LD%) to produce a career BABIP of just .266. Last year's .255 mark probably won't increase too much as a result. While the equation completely changes in an OBP league (16.8% BB%, 20.2% O-Swing% last year), Bautista seems like he'll do more harm than good relative to players with a similar Draft Day cost.

Verdict: Chump