RADIO
Rick Lucks previews the fantasy prospects of Mike Minor and Tyler Chatwood to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.
Now that big names like Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani have moved, it's easy to stop paying attention to the lesser names on the transaction wire. Don't fall into that trap! The most prepared owners frequently perform the best, and everybody will have an educated opinion on guys like Stanton.
Spin rate is still beyond the capabilities of the average fantasy owner, so taking some time to learn the basics of it now can give you an advantage all season long. Your first lesson is that spin rate is never everything, instead representing one of many tools that should factor into your analysis.
With this in mind, let's take a look at recent signees Mike Minor and Tyler Chatwood to see whether their advanced profiles suggest fantasy success.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Mike Minor (SP/RP, TEX)
Minor came out of nowhere to be a dominant reliever for the Royals last season, compiling a 2.55 ERA (3.59 xFIP) and 28.7% K% in 77 2/3 IP last season. The Rangers have decided to see if Minor can replicate the performance over a starter's workload, signing him with the intent of having him in their rotation.
Minor had not pitched significant MLB innings since 2014, forcing this analysis to contend with a role change and a time skip to determine whether his numbers will translate to the rotation. His 6.3% HR/FB (10.1% career) and .272 BABIP seem fortunate (.294 career), but his elevated strand rate (78.1% vs. 73.4% career) looks sustainable as long as his K% doesn't regress to 2014's 18.8% mark. Fantasy owners need those K's, so let's start there.
Minor worked with a four-pitch mix as a reliever, suggesting that he has the variety a starting pitcher needs. His fastball was sensational, experiencing a significant velocity spike (91.7 mph to 94.9) while posting an 11% SwStr%, 53.1% Zone%, and .197/.262/.336 line against. The velocity spike is unlikely to transfer completely in a larger workload, but this pitch looks extremely fantasy-friendly even with some regression.
Part of this is due to spin rate. Minor's four-seamer averaged 2,604 Revolutions Per Minute (RPM) last season, considerably above the 2,100-2,400 RPM range most fastballs live in. High-spin fastballs are associated with strikeouts and weak pop-ups, and Minor's generated both with aplomb. In addition to the numbers above, his fastball induced a ton of pop-ups (49.4% FB%, 33.3% IFFB%) while almost never leaving the park (4.8% HR/FB). Minor's .272 BABIP and 6.3% HR/FB suddenly look a lot more sustainable.
Statcast thought that Minor was elite on balls in play as well. His 90.9 mph average airborne exit velocity is better than league average, and his 2.6% rate of Brls/BBE was the 13th best mark in baseball (minimum 100 batted ball events). Statcast became public with 2015 data, so Minor has no other numbers to compare these too. Still, his strong spin rate suggests that his contact management is more skill than luck.
Spin rate is positively correlated with velocity, meaning that Minor's heater might spin less often if the conversion back to starting eliminates his velocity gains. The bright side is that we'll know almost as soon as the season starts whether Minor will maintain his velocity in his new role, confirming whether he's fantasy-viable or not.
The rest of Minor's repertoire was above average last year. His curve is a classic put away pitch, offering an 18.1% SwStr% and 43.6% chase rate at the expense of a low Zone% (32.8%). His change plays off of his heater to do very well in the zone (15.9% SwStr%, 47.7% Zone%, 27.9% chase), and his slider provided elite results on batted balls (.182/.224/.232) and reasonable strikeout indicators (13.6% SwStr%, 45.2% Zone%, 38.6% chase). Importantly, its 50.6% GB% may be Minor's answer to Arlington's elevated HR factors for both RHB (103) and LHB (105).
The move to Texas also gives Minor reasonable defensive support, as Adrian Beltre (six DRS), Elvis Andrus (three), and Roughned Odor (also three) are all plus defenders. Joey Gallo is passable at first (-1), but the defense as a whole takes a hit if he plays third (-4). The team's outfield ranked 19th by Outs Above Average last year with -5, a significant downgrade from what Minor had in Kansas City (11 OAA, seventh).
Alex Claudio lacks a lot of what most teams look for in a closer, so Minor's six saves last year could give him a shot at the ninth inning if starting doesn't work out. Working as a reliever last season also gives him RP-eligibility in leagues that strongly incentivize maximizing your innings pitched. Overall, he's a high-upside sleeper who many owners are likely to write off as a fluke.
Verdict: Champ
Tyler Chatwood (SP, CHC)
Chatwood's 4.69 ERA in 147 2/3 IP isn't special, but nobody should expect strong surface stats in Coors Field. His 3.49 ERA on the road was considerably better than his work at Coors (6.01), leading many to identify Chatwood as a possible sleeper heading into 2018.
The problem is that Chatwood doesn't strike anybody out anywhere. His 19% K% only went up to 19.4% if you isolate his road work, and his walk rate actually increased away from Coors (12.5% BB% on the road). That's way too high for a guy with a sub-20% K%, severely capping his upside.
Chatwood's repertoire simply isn't that good. His fastball is roughly average (7.5% SwStr%, 53.8% Zone%), but his sinker accomplishes nothing (6.1% SwStr%, 41.2% Zone%, 22.1% chase) and his curve is a near-automatic ball (13.8% SwStr%, 23.9% Zone%, 31.9% chase). His slider generates whiffs (15.8% SwStr%), but it doesn't have the Zone% (36.1%) or chase rate (37.8%) to be a consistent weapon. Chatwood's change flashes excellence (20.8% SwStr%, 22.8% Zone%, 44.9% chase), but the rest of his arsenal's inability to set it up makes it the least-utilized offering Chatwood has (3.8% usage).
Chatwood's heat has a plus spin rate (2,480 RPM), but it doesn't get the results Minor's does. Its 17.9% FB% and IFFB% are both dwarfed by Minor's, and its 39.3% HR/FB suggests that it's a mistake every time it ends up airborne. Since it doesn't generate Ks either, it seems likely that Chatwood's strong spin rate is actually gyrospin, or measurable spin that doesn't actually accomplish anything. This so-called useless spin is not likely to morph into anything more productive, keeping Chatwood as a clear pitch-to-contact guy.
Chatwood posted a .283 BABIP last year, but there is no contact suppression ability here either. He does not suppress LD% (20.4% LD% career), induces few flies (24.9% career), and produces even fewer pop-ups (5.6% IFFB% career). He managed to post nine DRS last year, but his previous career best was three. Leaving Coors will help, but his season BABIP is likely to be significantly higher than last year's mark.
Contact-driven arms rely on the defense behind them, and Chicago's is a strong unit. Shortstop Addison Russell had 15 DRS last year, and a pair of second baseman (Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez) contributed five more each. Anthony Rizzo had nine at first base, and Kris Bryant posted one at third. The team's outfield is middling (15th with -4 OAA), but nothing good is happening in the air for Chatwood anyway. His average airborne exit velocity against (92.7 mph) and rate of Brls/BBE (5.6%) both increased relative to 2016 (90.8 and 4.2%, respectively).
Any ballpark besides Coors would obviously boost Chatwood's fantasy value, but Wrigley plays differently every year. Last year, it inflated offense with a Run Factor of 107 for RHB and 104 for LHB. In 2016, it hindered offense with Run Factors of 97 and 87. No other ballpark is affected by the weather like this, making it more of a day-to-day decision based on the weather forecast than a set hitter's or pitcher's park.
Chatwood can luck into decent starts on occasion, and his new team should give him plenty of opportunities to pick up wins. That makes him a viable streaming option if you're looking for bulk innings, but his poor rate stats really hurt you if you have an innings cap or use K/9. Let somebody else invest in his potential.
Verdict: Chump
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