Champ or Chump: Me!

September 28, 2021

Rick Lucks reviews all of the predictions he made this fantasy season to determine what worked and what didn't. What will he learn?

With just a week to go this season, most fantasy seasons have come to an end. Managers in weekly formats have set their final lineup, and predicting how teams will distribute playing time based on their ever-changing needs ahead of time is an exercise in futility. The entire premise of this column relies on using data to predict how players might perform over a significant sample size, and that's simply no longer possible for 2021.

That said, it's never too early to start preparing for 2022. This column will briefly review every player we've profiled this season and analyze what was right or wrong about the thinking used at the time. It's also your opportunity to make fun of me for calls that didn't turn out so well, but the primary purpose is to identify some key takeaways that can inform our strategies in the future.

We will look at each player's publication date and original verdict, with players who I feel are more interesting getting more analysis. We have 24 players to look at in this piece, so let's get started!

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1. Tyler O'Neill

Champ, 4/5

O'Neill homered on Opening Day and the original piece cited a "realistic projection" of 30 HR and 10 SB over a full season when he was only rostered in 10% of Yahoo! leagues. He bested both totals, slashing .281/.348/.544 with 32 HR and 14 SB. The strong average is likely a mirage considering his 31.7 K% and .362 BABIP, but O'Neill looks like a top-50 pick next year. Final Verdict: Champ

2. Jonathan India

Chump, 4/13

India led the Reds in RBI at the time of the original article, and I argued that it was a mirage considering his lack of a carrying fantasy skill and insignificant role in Cincinnati's lineup. I also noted that we didn't have much data to work with and he might have 15/15 upside if everything broke right. That's basically what happened, as he ended up hitting .268/.377/.455 with 20 HR and 11 SB while moving into the leadoff spot. Final Verdict: Chump (for me, not India)

3. Zach McKinstry

Chump, 4/20

McKinstry was rostered in 42% of leagues when I wrote the original article and I couldn't figure out why. He was hot, but he was the second-string utility guy on one of the deepest rosters in baseball. Sure enough, he ended up with nearly as many MiLB PAs (150) and MLB PAs (172) and carries a disappointing .215/.263/.405 season line. Final Verdict: Champ (for me, not McKinstry)

4. Buster Posey

Champ, 4/27

The 34-year-old catcher was hitting .277/.358/.553 at the time of publication, and I not only said that he would continue performing as a top catcher, but that his season numbers were due for positive regression. That call was spot-on, as he was slashing .300/.385/.499 with 18 HR at the time of this writing. The fact that he was only rostered in 59% of leagues at the end of April shows you how strong ageism is in the fantasy community. Final Verdict: Champ

5. Luis Castillo

???, 5/4

This is a tough one to evaluate as I didn't take a strong stand either way. I argued that his K% would rebound, and it did to 24% for the season and 27.5% in the second half. I also boldly predicted that his final season numbers would look better than his 1-3 record and 6.07 ERA at the time of publication. Castillo was much better in the second half with a 3.28 ERA, bringing his season ERA to 4.05 with one start left. I think we're calling this a win. Final Verdict: Champ

6. Dominic Smith

Chump, 5/11

Smith was awful at the time of writing, hitting .222/.271/.323 despite being rostered in 64% of leagues. I predicted that his BABIP would rebound somewhat but that he would still stink, and that's exactly what happened. He's now hitting .244/.305/.361 with 11 HR and has mercifully lost his starting job, though the Mets were hitting him in the middle of the order as late as mid-August. Final Verdict: Champ

7. Huascar Ynoa

Chump, 5/18

Ynoa punched a wall and ended up on the IL as I was researching this piece, and I felt like a Chump for publishing an article on an injured guy. That said, my calls for regression came true: he has a 5.01 ERA since returning from his self-inflicted injury versus 3.02 beforehand. Final Verdict: Champ

8. Adolis Garcia

Champ, 5/25

Garcia was a world-beater at the time of writing, slashing .291/.329/.603 with 14 HR and five steals to that point. He kept piling up the counting stats and now stands at 30 HR and 13 steals on the season. Unfortunately, his batting average was down to .270 by the end of the first half and he hit only .211 in the second. My original analysis compared his plate approach to Javy Baez and noted that he could collapse at any moment, and he did. I thought he would have one great season before reality caught up to him though. Still, 30 HR and 13 SB is pretty good for a guy literally no one drafted, so... Final Verdict: Champ

9. Jarred Kelenic

Chump, 6/1

Kelenic got off to a brutal start and never recovered, slashing .174/.255/.347 with 14 HR on the season. I hedged my bet in the original piece by noting his elite prospect pedigree and associated upside, but all of the analysis sounds pessimistic in retrospect. He still has long-term value, but 2021 was pretty bad. Final Verdict: Champ

10. Cedric Mullins

Champ, 6/8

Mullins was hitting a ridiculous .322/.390/.533 with nine homers and steals when I published this piece. I called Mullins a Champ based on a projection that he would hit .280 while producing at a 15 HR, 20-25 SB pace over the rest of the season. Mullins obliterated those totals, going 30/30 with a .299/.369/.535 line. I specifically called out a lack of power and Mullins made me look bad, so I'll take the Chump tag here. Final Verdict: Chump

11. Alec Bohm

Champ, 6/15

I called Bohm a Champ because his xStats looked good, and they still look good. His .245/.302/.342 line on the season does not look good, and the Phillies ultimately demoted him to the minors. Swing and a miss on my part, though I will invest again next year at the right price. Final Verdict: Chump

12. Sammy Long

Champ, 6/22

This is probably my least-favorite prediction of the season. I got caught up in puff pieces from Spring Training and the feel-good story of a guy pitching to his childhood idol and called him a Champ. He was anything but, sporting a 5.53 ERA and pedestrian 21.6 K% in limited opportunities. Final Verdict: Chump

13. Trevor Story

Champ, 6/29

Much of this piece's analysis centered around how Story might fare in the different ballpark, rendering it null and void since he was never traded. I ultimately pegged Story as a .260 hitter with 25 HR and 30 SB, and he fell short of all three marks despite remaining at Coors Field (.247, 23 HR, 19 SB). Reports suggest that he's miserable in Denver, so the 29-year-old may be a good bounce-back candidate in a different uniform next year. Final Verdict: Chump

14. Vidal Brujan

Champ, 7/13

Brujan hit .077 in 26 PAs, never getting a serious look. I wanted steals but should have paid more attention to how the Rays planned to use him. Final Verdict: Chump

15. Jarren Duran

Chump, 7/20

The original piece expressed concern that Duran was selling out for power when his profile relied more on speed and batting average. Duran never became a regular in Boston and struggled to a .215/.241/.336 with two homers and two steals in 112 PAs. Final Verdict: Champ

16. Patrick Sandoval

Champ, 7/27

Unfortunately, Sandoval's season ended with a back injury just three starts after I wrote this piece. Those three starts weren't great, but I'm calling this a push since it may have been injury-related.

17. Tanner Houck

Champ, 8/3

Houck's season-long numbers are strong as he has posted a 3.77 ERA, 3.37 xFIP, and 29.2 K%. He had a 2.48 ERA and 2.41 xFIP when I wrote this piece though, so he trended in the wrong direction after I wrote it. He also lost his rotation spot, though I remain unconvinced that it was the right call considering Boston's other options. This is a loss for me, but expect to see Houck on a lot of preseason sleeper lists next spring. Final Verdict: Chump

18. Tylor Megill

Chump, 8/10

Megill had a 3.20 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, and 25.8 K% when I wrote this piece, but I didn't think he had the stuff to support his strikeout rate or current ERA. The Mets were also about to embark on a challenging schedule, an issue for a guy that I had pegged as nothing more than a streamer. Megill has only two QS to his name since this piece went live, and his ERA has jumped to 4.78 on the season. Final Verdict: Champ

19. Josiah Gray

Champ, 8/17

I stated that Gray's extreme fly ball profile could lead to more HR than fantasy managers would like, and that's exactly what has happened with a HR/9 of 2.73. I also stated that most of them would be solo shots as Gray wouldn't allow too many baserunners. That has not happened, as Gray has a 10.7 BB% that has contributed to a 1.42 WHIP and a bloated 5.92 ERA. Final Verdict: Chump

20. Amed Rosario

Champ, 8/24

I recommended Rosario as a speed play and he has swiped exactly zero bases since this article went live. He's also hitting just .188 in September, so he's been a total zero. Final Verdict: Chump

21. Edward Cabrera

Champ, 8/31

Cabrera is the classic pitching prospect who combines electric stuff with questionable command, making him high-volatility and a good fit for managers who need to make something happen down the stretch. His 5.79 ERA and 15.9 BB% represent the downside of that profile, but the real surprise here is the pedestrian 20.6 K%. Cabrera's going to be a fantasy bust until he translates his raw stuff into strikeouts, which has me concerned going into 2022. Final Verdict: Chump

22. Frank Schwindel

Champ, 9/7

Schwindel has done nothing but mash since the Cubs traded all of their players at the deadline, yet his lack of prospect pedigree kept his roster rate to 62% at the time of writing. I pretty much said he would keep doing what he's doing and he has. It'll be interesting to see what drafters make of him next season. Final Verdict: Champ

23. Ranger Suarez

Champ, 9/14

Suarez has made three starts since I compared him to a better version of prime Kyle Hendricks, and all three were great. He tossed six innings of two-run ball against the Cubs and Orioles with a total of 13 K and fired a complete-game shutout with seven strikeouts against the Pirates. He's another arm to look out for in 2022. Final Verdict: Champ

24. Elias Diaz

Champ, 9/21

Diaz has zero homers and three RBI in the last week, so he didn't do much for managers looking for power from a catcher slot. Final Verdict: Chump

Conclusions

My overall tally is 12 wins, 11 losses, and one injury-related push. However, my wins were generally clustered early in the year when more players were available on waivers and those additions could have a greater impact on your team's numbers. That's useful information for those of you in Readerland, and it also lets me know that I need to find a new approach for in-season evaluations.

My track record on top pitching prospects was also abysmal, as Gray, Cabrera, and to a lesser extent Houck, were all overvalued. I should look at those guys again and try to figure out what I missed. Challenging your own assumptions is one of the best ways to grow as a fantasy manager, and I encourage you to try similar exercises with your own decisions.

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