RADIO
Conventional wisdom says to stick with struggling stars early on in the season. This is sound advice, as most of them live up to the back of their baseball cards eventually. At this point in the season, however, you have to be willing to pull the plug, cut your losses, and accept that you are going to get almost nothing out of a significant Draft Day investment. You do not want to finish outside of the money because you waited too long to dump a bust.
If Yahoo ownership rates are any indication, owners are holding on to struggling 2016 studs well past their expiration dates. Mark Trumbo's numbers are available on waivers in most leagues, yet he's 70% owned. Xander Bogaerts has contributed almost nothing this season, yet still enjoys a 95% ownership rate befitting a superstar. While it is possible that nothing worthwhile is available on waivers this late in the year, you should at least consider dumping these guys in an effort to catch lightning in a bottle.
Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo! leagues.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Mark Trumbo (OF/1B, BAL) 70% Owned
Trumbo smashed 47 homers with a .256/.316/.533 line last season, but 2017 has been far more pedestrian: .237/.297/.412 with 20 HR over 505 PAs. The low average, 25 HR bat has never been worth less in fantasy than it is right now, so the only reason to hold Trumbo is if you think he will revert to 2016 form in the near future.
He probably won't. Trumbo's FB% (40.2%) is down relative to his career best 43.1% mark from last season, but a massive decline in HR/FB (24.6% last year, 14.3% this) is truly the root of his production to date. The drop does not seem luck-based either, as he is pulling fewer fly balls (23.6% vs. 27.2% a year ago), producing less average airborne exit velocity (94.6 mph vs. 96.7), and Barreling fewer baseballs (7.5% rate of Brls/BBE vs. 15.8% last year.) Trumbo's career HR/FB is only 18.6%, suggesting that last year was the fluke. Trumbo has pop, but it isn't elite.
This is problematic considering his poor batting average. Trumbo's .274 BABIP may seem like a candidate for positive regression, but his career .286 mark suggests that he is a below average BABIP guy. His 17.5% LD% is actually higher than his career mark (16.8%), and they're also overperforming relative to their career average (.787 BABIP against .730 career). His IFFB% is also up (15% vs. 12.6% last season), and Trumbo hits a lot of fly balls. Trumbo doesn't pull a lot of ground balls (51.7% this year), allowing him to fare well against the shift (.367). Everything in his profile supports a low BABIP though.
Optimists may point to an improved K% (25.5% last year, 23.2% this) as a reason to believe in Trumbo, but it looks like a mirage. His SwStr% (13.6% to 13%) and chase rate (33.8% to 32.5%) are both slightly better than they were last season, but not by enough to support a sizable K% swing. This means that Trumbo is likely to strikeout more often over the rest of the season, dragging down his already poor average in the process.
The Orioles have taken to hitting Trumbo seventh in their order, capping his counting stat upside even if he catches fire in September. Most fantasy owners would be better off rostering a player with a similar profile on a rebuilding club, as a weak offense's cleanup hitter usually gets more RBI and runs scored than a guy on the periphery of a stronger offense. Don't be afraid to make the swap.
Verdict: Chump
Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS) 95% Owned
Bogaerts contributed in every fantasy category last year, posting a .294/.356/.446 line with 21 HR and 13 SB. He's not really contributing in any fantasy category this season, posting a .280/.340/.413 line with eight homers and 11 SB. He's only been caught stealing once, but he doesn't run often enough to be a game changer. Last year's 13 bags were a professional best, so it's logical to conclude that Bogaerts just doesn't like to run that much.
He doesn't like to hit for power either. His FB% is down relative to last season (34.9% to 30.2%), making it very challenging to project much pop out of his bat. His HR/FB has also declined (11.4% last year to 7.3% this). Average airborne exit velocity (92.5 mph last year, 90.5 this) and Brls/BBE (5.3% last year, 1.1% this) both support the decline, so this isn't a case of bad luck. Bogaerts just doesn't have the quantity or quality of fly balls to meaningfully contribute in the power categories.
Players need to hit for a very high average to be fantasy-relevant without significant speed or power, and .280 does not cut it. Bogaerts already has a .333 BABIP this season (.336 career), so it's going to be hard to BABIP his way to anything higher. Bogaerts's .281 BABIP on ground balls is 26 points lower than his .307 career mark, but the decline is supported by his average exit velocity (88 mph last year, 85.7 mph this) and the fact that very few players sustain BABIPs on the ground of .300+. His flies have also overachieved (.157 vs. career .127), and his pitiful airborne contact quality explains his underachieving line drives (.697 vs. .738 career).
If anything, his league average LD% (20.9%) and elevated IFFB% (14.5%) suggest a lower BABIP moving forward. He is probably not a true talent .330 BABIP guy despite his career average, giving him batting average downside that he really can't afford as a fantasy play.
Finally, the Red Sox do not provide Bogaerts with the counting stats that they did last year. Part of this is that he's played himself into the sixth spot, where counting stats are harder to come by. The team as a whole has also declined dramatically offensively, posting a wRC+ of 93 against a 113 mark last year. The league average wRC+ is always 100, with each point above or below that representing one percentage point better or worse than average. Boston is now a below average offensive team overall, a fact that seemed inconceivable as recently as last season.
That leaves us with a shortstop who does not run, doesn't hit homers, needs a fortunate BABIP to hit .280, and doesn't pile up a lot of counting stats. Bogaerts has good plate discipline (18.1% K%, 7.6% BB%), but it isn't elite. He's young enough that he could still figure something out, but this profile as it stands is clearly waiver fodder. Name recognition is the only reason he is owned in so many leagues.
Verdict: Chump
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