Champ or Chump: Luisangel Acuna and Spencer Schwellenbach Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

September 24, 2024

Are 2B/SS Luisangel Acuna (Mets) and SP Spencer Schwellenbach (Braves) fantasy breakouts, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.

We're in the fantasy baseball season's final week. It's easy to assume your waiver wire gems will keep performing well, but this isn't always the case.

Luisangel Acuna is off to a hot start with the Mets, but he may lose his starting job with the imminent return of Francisco Lindor. The Braves don't have an obvious replacement for Spencer Schwellenbach, but they'll probably be careful with him anyway.

Let's take a deep dive into two baseball players for the final time in 2024!

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Luisangel Acuna (2B/SS, NYM) 31% Rostered

Acuna's scintillating start includes a .379/.400/.828 triple-slash line with three homers in 30 plate appearances, but 30 PAs is far too small a sample to draw accurate conclusions from. The 22-year-old isn't projected as an everyday player, much less an impact fantasy asset.

Here is Acuna's FanGraphs scouting report:

He's a below-average hitter who struggles to access decent raw pop in games. His writeup notes that Acuna has chase and plate coverage issues, leading to streakiness at the plate. He's also described as a "very versatile utility guy" in the future.

Scouting reports aren't everything, but Acuna's MiLB resume isn't that impressive either. He first cracked the High Minors in 2022 with Double-A (Fresno) of the Texas organization, hitting .224/.302/.349 with three homers and 12 steals across 169 PAs. He didn't flash much pop with a 9.1% HR/FB or batting average ability with his .274 BABIP.

He was successful on 80% of his steal attempts (12-for-15), giving him 45 SB upside over a full season. Sadly, we've all seen jackrabbits who could steal tons of bases if only they were good at baseball.

Acuna appeared to improve dramatically in 2023, slashing .315/.377/.453 with seven homers and 42 SB in 402 PAs with Fresno. His BABIP jumped over a hundred points to .381, but nothing else changed. His BB% declined slightly from 10.1% to 9.2%, while his K% went from 21.3% to 18.9%. His HR/FB remained constant at 9.1%.

Acuna went 42-for-47 on SB attempts, giving him a success rate of 89%. The Mets liked his numbers enough to take Acuna as the headliner in the Max Scherzer deal, and his numbers regressed immediately.

Assigned to Double-A (Binghamton), Acuna hit .243/.307/.304 with two homers and 15 steals across 167 PAs. His .288 BABIP did Acuna no favors, while his HR/FB fell to 5%. He maintained his plate discipline with a 9% BB% and 18% K%, but that wasn't enough to bring his line to respectability.

Worst of all, Acuna was caught on five of 20 SB attempts for a success rate of 75%. With everything trending in the wrong direction, the Mets promoted Acuna to Triple-A (Syracuse) to begin 2024.

Triple-A is extremely hitter-friendly, but nobody told Acuna. He struggled to a .258/.299/.355 line with seven homers and 40 steals across 587 PAs. Acuna's .299 BABIP prevented him from taking advantage of balls in play, while his 6.6% HR/FB was pathetic by Triple-A standards.

His plate discipline was fine with a 5.5% BB% against a 16.4% K%, but he was caught on 14 of 54 SB attempts for a success rate of 74%. There's no way he would have made his MLB debut this year if Lindor didn't get hurt.

Lindor got hurt though, giving Acuna the week of his life. His 37.5% HR/FB is due for substantial regression, and the Mets hit him ninth every game despite his hot start. Furthermore, Lindor is expected to return to New York's lineup tonight against the Braves, leaving Acuna with nowhere to play.

Acuna has MiLB experience at 2B and in the outfield, but the Mets don't have any obvious openings at either position. Jose Iglesias means too much in the clubhouse to bench, and the team has a surplus of outfielders already with Brandon Nimmo, Harrison Bader, Jesse Winker, and Starling Marte. Third base won't work either with Mark Vientos's breakout campaign.

Roster Resource projects Acuna on the bench once Lindor is healthy, making him a poor volume play. He's 0-for-1 on SB attempts as a Met, so this Chump shouldn't be trusted in the final week.

Spencer Schwellenbach (SP, ATL) 70% Rostered

Schwellenbach has been a revelation for the Braves this season, going 7-7 with a 3.61 ERA in 109 2/3 IP. His ERA estimators are similar with a 3.45 xERA, 3.32 FIP, and 3.35 xFIP, suggesting Schwellenbach has been slightly unlucky if anything. He also has a great K-BB% with a 26.3% K% and 4.9% BB%.

Schwellenbach came out of nowhere. He dominated High-A but was old for the level at age 24. That earned him a quick promotion to Double-A (Mississippi), where he made two excellent starts with a 0.00 ERA and 38.6% K% before getting the call to Atlanta.

Here is the FanGraphs scouting report on Schwellenbach:

Schwellenbach features a solid six-pitch mix. His fastball (8.9% SwStr%, 66.5% Zone%) and cutter (11.9% SwStr%, 65.1 Zone%) excel at getting him ahead in the count, with his sinker (3.2% SwStr%, 51.6% Zone%) serving as a third option.

Schwellenbach's curve (18% SwStr%, 49.2% Zone%, 38.5% chase rate) and splitter (25% SwStr%, 38.4% Zone%, 41.3% chase) are his primary put-away pitches. He also throws a solid slider that's in between his fastballs and put-away pitches (15.5% SwStr%, 47% Zone%, 45.7% chase). The mix is enough to keep hitters guessing, making him an intriguing play in 2025.

That said, this author is leery of Schwellenbach this week. Tommy John surgery delayed his pro debut by a year and shoulder inflammation limited him to 65 IP in 2023, so he's never approached the 100-inning plateau. He's already up to 154 2/3 IP this season, so you know the Braves want to protect their young arm.

The Braves upcoming schedule also does Schwellenbach no favors. He's scheduled to start tonight against the Mets, a very hot team looking to secure a playoff berth. Assuming he survives that, he lines up to face Kansas City on the last day of the year: another team that could be playing for its life.

He probably won't make that start against the Royals. If Atlanta is out of it, they'll shut him down. If it means something, ace Chris Sale on short rest makes more sense than a rookie. That means Schwellenbach only has one start against the Mets.

Do you want your season to come down to a fatigued rookie against a hot team? If not, you don't need to start this Chump. 

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