May 25, 2017

Rick Lucks analyzes Kevin Pillar & Michael Conforto to determine whether they will continue to produce during the 2017 MLB season.

The fantasy community hypes up a few players every draft season without driving their ADP too high. Kevin Pillar was viewed as an intriguing speed play if he could hit enough to receive regular PAs, yet his ADP was just 321. Michael Conforto was buried on the Mets depth chart, but everyone thought he would hit if given the opportunity to do so. The situation's ADP was 313.7.

If you invested in either guy at their market rate, you are probably in the top tier of your league's standings. Both players are off to excellent starts, seemingly rewarding the faith many had in them but were unwilling to pay for. Will owners reap these rewards all season, or will these outfielders ultimately play down to their dirt cheap price tags?

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo leagues.

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The Fantasy Jury is Out

Kevin Pillar (OF, TOR) 68% Owned

Long known as a light-hitting defensive specialist, Pillar is slashing an excellent .306/.357/.483 with six big flies and seven swipes this year. Hiding beneath the impressive surface stats is an unimpressive SB rate, as he has been caught four times already. He went 14-for-20 in SB attempts last year, producing a 70% success rate that likely was not high enough to justify running with Toronto's high-powered offense. His glove work is also down, as he has just two DRS this year. He seems to be losing some of his former athleticism at age 28.

This fact makes Pillar's .329 BABIP puzzling. It is predicated on more productive ground balls (.313 against .279 career), but a loss of athleticism would be expected to produce the opposite result. Pillar's .279 career BABIP on grounders is already well above league average, making regression likely even if Pillar hasn't lost his wheels. Pillar has also been fortunate on line drives (.742 vs. .688 career), making overall batting average regression the most likely outcome.

Fantasy owners might excuse a lower average and less speed if the power stroke was sustainable, but it isn't. Pillar is not hitting any more flies than he did last year (35.5% FB% vs. 33.9% last year), so he hasn't joined the fly ball revolution. He also isn't pulling fly balls more often than he used to (23.6% vs. 21.4% last year). His average exit velocity on airborne batted balls is 91.2 mph, unimpressive by both the league's standards and in relation to his performance last year (91 mph). His 6.4% rate of Barrels per Batted Ball Event is also below average. Pillar's HR/FB has surged to 10.9% from a paltry 4.5% a year ago, but there is nothing in the underlying metrics supporting the improved performance.

Optimists could point to improved plate discipline as an argument in Pillar's favor, as the outfielder has impressively combined a career best 33.2% chase rate with a career high Z-Swing% (70.5%) and Z-Contact% (94.3%). Pillar never really struck out though, so his 13.2% K% is only marginally better than his career mark of 15.7%. His current BB% of 7.1% is also likely to decline when the power fades.

The result is an outfielder who may not steal much, hit for a lot of power, or produce a high batting average. He's rosterable in fantasy due to his leadoff slot in Toronto's order, but he's nothing more than a runs play in deeper formats. His current numbers scream fluke.

Verdict: Chump

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM) 87% Owned

Conforto's 2017 line of .333/.425/.713 with 13 HR is reminiscent of his breakout 2015, when he slugged nine bombs in 194 PAs. The Mets grossly mishandled him last year, but he seems to be back on track now. A lot of Conforto's luck metrics suggest regression, but a deeper look at his exit velocity suggests more signal, or meaning, than luck.

For example, his current HR/FB of 34.2% is absurd and likely to decline moving forward. That said, his airborne batted balls average 96.7 mph, 18th highest in MLB (min. 80 balls in play). Barrels, a stat combining exit velocity and launch angle, like Conforto even more. His 17% rate of Brls/BBE is seventh best in the majors. Conforto has real power that is likely to produce many more homers with his fly ball tendencies (40.4% FB%) even if his HR/FB regresses a little.

Conforto's .370 BABIP is a little harder to explain, but the average shouldn't be too much of a drag. There is nothing in Conforto's history suggesting that he can maintain his current LD% of 23.4%, so he'll probably lose a few points of batting average there. His liners also sport a BABIP of .864, a number likely to decline to his career norm of .720. Conforto's exit velocity should allow him to beat the league average, but his career line drive BABIP is already plus. Conforto's .235 BABIP on ground balls seems sustainable enough, but his 80.8 mph average exit velocity on the ground suggests a rate closer to his .205 career mark.

Conforto is not a true talent .333 hitter, but he's not that bad either. His all-fields approach should make him immune to the shift, while his retooled swing seems to have mitigated the number of useless pop-ups he hits (2.6% IFFB%). His 11.6% SwStr% is better than his 24.2% K% would suggest, giving him some batting average upside by learning to avoid the strikeout. Conforto also has an advanced knowledge of the zone, as his BB% of 13.1% is completely supported by his 27.7% chase rate.

The Mets are still utilizing Conforto incorrectly, as his power profile would benefit from more RBI opportunities than the leadoff slot generally offers. Still, Conforto has forced the Mets to play him even when the team becomes healthy again. If you missed out on Aaron Judge's amazing performance, Conforto may represent a second chance.

Verdict: Champ

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