X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Kevin Pillar & Michael Conforto

Rick Lucks analyzes Kevin Pillar & Michael Conforto to determine whether they will continue to produce during the 2017 MLB season.

The fantasy community hypes up a few players every draft season without driving their ADP too high. Kevin Pillar was viewed as an intriguing speed play if he could hit enough to receive regular PAs, yet his ADP was just 321. Michael Conforto was buried on the Mets depth chart, but everyone thought he would hit if given the opportunity to do so. The situation's ADP was 313.7.

If you invested in either guy at their market rate, you are probably in the top tier of your league's standings. Both players are off to excellent starts, seemingly rewarding the faith many had in them but were unwilling to pay for. Will owners reap these rewards all season, or will these outfielders ultimately play down to their dirt cheap price tags?

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Kevin Pillar (OF, TOR) 68% Owned

Long known as a light-hitting defensive specialist, Pillar is slashing an excellent .306/.357/.483 with six big flies and seven swipes this year. Hiding beneath the impressive surface stats is an unimpressive SB rate, as he has been caught four times already. He went 14-for-20 in SB attempts last year, producing a 70% success rate that likely was not high enough to justify running with Toronto's high-powered offense. His glove work is also down, as he has just two DRS this year. He seems to be losing some of his former athleticism at age 28.

This fact makes Pillar's .329 BABIP puzzling. It is predicated on more productive ground balls (.313 against .279 career), but a loss of athleticism would be expected to produce the opposite result. Pillar's .279 career BABIP on grounders is already well above league average, making regression likely even if Pillar hasn't lost his wheels. Pillar has also been fortunate on line drives (.742 vs. .688 career), making overall batting average regression the most likely outcome.

Fantasy owners might excuse a lower average and less speed if the power stroke was sustainable, but it isn't. Pillar is not hitting any more flies than he did last year (35.5% FB% vs. 33.9% last year), so he hasn't joined the fly ball revolution. He also isn't pulling fly balls more often than he used to (23.6% vs. 21.4% last year). His average exit velocity on airborne batted balls is 91.2 mph, unimpressive by both the league's standards and in relation to his performance last year (91 mph). His 6.4% rate of Barrels per Batted Ball Event is also below average. Pillar's HR/FB has surged to 10.9% from a paltry 4.5% a year ago, but there is nothing in the underlying metrics supporting the improved performance.

Optimists could point to improved plate discipline as an argument in Pillar's favor, as the outfielder has impressively combined a career best 33.2% chase rate with a career high Z-Swing% (70.5%) and Z-Contact% (94.3%). Pillar never really struck out though, so his 13.2% K% is only marginally better than his career mark of 15.7%. His current BB% of 7.1% is also likely to decline when the power fades.

The result is an outfielder who may not steal much, hit for a lot of power, or produce a high batting average. He's rosterable in fantasy due to his leadoff slot in Toronto's order, but he's nothing more than a runs play in deeper formats. His current numbers scream fluke.

Verdict: Chump

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM) 87% Owned

Conforto's 2017 line of .333/.425/.713 with 13 HR is reminiscent of his breakout 2015, when he slugged nine bombs in 194 PAs. The Mets grossly mishandled him last year, but he seems to be back on track now. A lot of Conforto's luck metrics suggest regression, but a deeper look at his exit velocity suggests more signal, or meaning, than luck.

For example, his current HR/FB of 34.2% is absurd and likely to decline moving forward. That said, his airborne batted balls average 96.7 mph, 18th highest in MLB (min. 80 balls in play). Barrels, a stat combining exit velocity and launch angle, like Conforto even more. His 17% rate of Brls/BBE is seventh best in the majors. Conforto has real power that is likely to produce many more homers with his fly ball tendencies (40.4% FB%) even if his HR/FB regresses a little.

Conforto's .370 BABIP is a little harder to explain, but the average shouldn't be too much of a drag. There is nothing in Conforto's history suggesting that he can maintain his current LD% of 23.4%, so he'll probably lose a few points of batting average there. His liners also sport a BABIP of .864, a number likely to decline to his career norm of .720. Conforto's exit velocity should allow him to beat the league average, but his career line drive BABIP is already plus. Conforto's .235 BABIP on ground balls seems sustainable enough, but his 80.8 mph average exit velocity on the ground suggests a rate closer to his .205 career mark.

Conforto is not a true talent .333 hitter, but he's not that bad either. His all-fields approach should make him immune to the shift, while his retooled swing seems to have mitigated the number of useless pop-ups he hits (2.6% IFFB%). His 11.6% SwStr% is better than his 24.2% K% would suggest, giving him some batting average upside by learning to avoid the strikeout. Conforto also has an advanced knowledge of the zone, as his BB% of 13.1% is completely supported by his 27.7% chase rate.

The Mets are still utilizing Conforto incorrectly, as his power profile would benefit from more RBI opportunities than the leadoff slot generally offers. Still, Conforto has forced the Mets to play him even when the team becomes healthy again. If you missed out on Aaron Judge's amazing performance, Conforto may represent a second chance.

Verdict: Champ

 

More Player Outlooks

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez3 hours ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam Tuesday
A.J. Puk3 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Michael King3 hours ago

Fans 11 In Five Shutout Innings Tuesday
Christian Yelich4 hours ago

Hits First Homer Of Season, Steals Base Tuesday
Evan Engram4 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Anthony Bender4 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Robert Hassell III4 hours ago

Has Three-Hit Day At Triple-A
Thomas Harrington4 hours ago

Hit Hard In MLB Debut Tuesday
Gunnar Henderson4 hours ago

Hits Solo Homer In Triple-A Rehab Game Tuesday
Marcelo Mayer4 hours ago

Hits First Home Run At Triple-A
Caleb Williams4 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge5 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews5 hours ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones5 hours ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin5 hours ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice5 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep5 hours ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson5 hours ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell5 hours ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao5 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry5 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey5 hours ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt6 hours ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz6 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman6 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford7 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi7 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen7 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick7 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners7 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay8 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López8 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland8 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia8 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti8 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL8 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette8 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus8 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants8 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears8 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Sam Ehlinger9 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Guerschon Yabusele9 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns9 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals9 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Jevon Carter9 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry9 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips9 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jalen Smith9 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball9 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter10 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey10 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton10 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale10 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant10 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal10 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II10 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons10 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young10 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser10 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo10 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud10 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart10 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba10 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga11 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry11 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown11 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault11 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere11 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn11 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro11 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions13 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans14 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders14 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear14 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins14 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL14 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä14 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway14 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys14 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal14 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy14 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Josh Norris15 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk15 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth16 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp17 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim17 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood17 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau17 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole17 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith21 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment21 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka21 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov21 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov21 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes22 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman2 days ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF