X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Kevin Gausman

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of breakout possibility SP Kevin Gausman in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Is he really as good as his peripherals indicate?

Separating legitimate breakouts from fluke seasons is one of the biggest components of fantasy analysis, and the unique structure of the 2020 campaign is making it more challenging than ever. Can you imagine making your final keeper decisions on June 1 in a normal year? That's going to be all of the information we have going into 2021.

It'll be an inexact science, but we can try to spot trends to point us in the right direction. For instance, Kevin Gausman of the San Francisco Giants has been an average starting pitcher since his MLB debut in 2013. He has a 22.1 career K% and a career ERA of 4.30. This year, he's sporting a 31 K% and 3.07 xFIP to go with a middling 4.43 ERA and 2-2 record. Has the 29-year-old former top prospect turned a corner, or is his 2020 success a mirage?

The answer is likely somewhere in between. Gausman is better than his 4.43 ERA might suggest, but still has a significant problem that will likely prevent him from living up to his sterling xFIP. He is currently rostered in 29% of Yahoo! leagues, and at least one manager in every league could probably use his services. Of course, that manager isn't necessarily you. Here is a more detailed look at Gausman's profile.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

What the Luck Metrics Say

 

The first step in evaluating any pitcher's performance is looking at his "luck metrics:" BABIP, strand rate, and HR/FB. Some pitchers can control these variables to an extent, while predictable factors such as a club's defense can influence them as well. Still, outlying marks in any of the three are likely to regress over time.

Gausman is allowing a .307 BABIP this season against a career mark of .314, a difference that probably isn't driving his success this season. He also has a 70.7% strand rate against a career mark of 73.9%, suggesting that he has been unfortunate considering his strikeout spike. His 20.5 HR/FB is a career-worst, significantly higher than his 13.8% career rate. Allowing more home runs doesn't make you an effective pitcher, so we can conclude that sheer dumb luck isn't behind Gausman's performance.

Interestingly, the Giants play in a pitcher's park but Gausman's 5.40 ERA at home is considerably higher than his 3.48 mark on the road. This is almost certainly small sample size noise and adds further credence to the notion that HR/FB isn't predictive of anything after about a month's worth of games.

That said, Gausman's .467 xSLG isn't that much lower than the .472 slugging percentage he has allowed thus far. His .262 xBA is also substantially higher than his .245 BA allowed, suggesting that his BABIP deserves to be a little higher than it is. In short, these metrics do not provide the answers we're searching for.

 

An Improving Fastball

 

The biggest driver of Gausman's success to date has been his four-seam fastball. It has ranked about average over his career, recording a 7.3 SwStr% and 58 Zone%. It was better than that in 2019 with a 10 SwStr% and 58.2 Zone%, but the time he spent as a reliever made one wonder if he could repeat it as a starter.

Gausman's 40 2/3 IP this season have come nearly exclusively as a starter (his one relief appearance lasted more than four innings), so he hasn't had the benefit of airing it out for a couple of batters. His heater has still been amazing: 11.8 SwStr% and 71.9 Zone%. Better yet, all of the offering's peripherals are trending in the right direction.

Gausman is throwing harder than he did a season ago, dialing it up to 95.6 mph against an average of 94.2 mph in 2019 and 93.6 in 2018. He's also generating a lot more spin, averaging 2,326 RPM in 2020 against 2,250 in 2019 and 2,168 in 2018. Gausman has always enjoyed a high active spin rate, with 92.3% of his fastball's RPM contributing to movement this year. His improved spin rate means that his active spin is making more of an impact, giving Gausman a dynamic weapon with which he can attack hitters.

 

Repertoire Changes?

 

Gausman has been perceived as a two-pitch arm who combines a mediocre fastball with a great splitter. Now that he also has a great fastball to pair with his splitter, his breakout must be real right? Not so fast. The table below highlights what Gausman has been throwing this year according to Pitch Info:

Gausman shelved his slider last year, but he's brought it back in a limited capacity. Unfortunately, it still isn't accomplishing that much. Its 8.5 SwStr% is fairly low for a breaking pitch, and batters are seldom chasing it out of the strike zone with an O-Swing% of just 17.9. Its 40.4 Zone% isn't stealing many called strikes either, and RHB (who have seen 40 of the 51 sliders Gausman has thrown this year) have an xwOBA of .553 against it. It's a complete waste of a pitch.

Gausman has never featured a changeup, and Statcast suggests he still doesn't despite the info above. The diagram below highlights Gausman's pitch usage on Baseball Savant:

Judging from those percentages, it's likely that what Pitch Info is registering as a changeup is actually a splitter that doesn't have the bite it's supposed to. Per Pitch Info, Gausman's split has a 23.2 SwStr%, 27.4 Zone%, and 37.7% chase rate this season. His change is inferior with a 13.2 SwStr%, 37.4 Zone%, and 14% chase rate. There's no reason to throw that changeup on purpose if you have Gausman's splitter.

Furthermore, Gausman's splitter has a career chase rate of 44.3%, roughly seven points higher than its current mark. This could suggest that even the pitches Pitch Info interprets as splitters don't have quite the same action they've had in the past. It's still a great strikeout pitch, but appears to be trending in the wrong direction.

 

Conclusion

 

Add it all together, and we have a guy with a great high-spin fastball and an excellent split when it's working. Two great weapons are all it takes to post high strikeout numbers, so Gausman is likely to continue racking up Ks moving forward.

However, high-spin fastballs are generally easier to lift, and a mistake can quickly wind up in the cheap seats. Furthermore, splitters that don't have the intended bite tend to get crushed. Gausman is also pretty predictable with just two viable offerings. This gives him more blowup potential than other arms.

The upside is intriguing, but there is enough volatility here that Gausman can't be recommended for fantasy gamers trying to maintain their ratios. Likewise, there's no reason to roll the dice with Gausman if you're currently in first place. However, Gausman is the perfect guy to sign if you need to make things happen this month. After all, you're not going to climb from sixth to first without taking some risks.

Verdict: Champ (assuming you're the GM of a middling team looking for a spark)



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF