Champ or Chump: Josh Hader, Corey Seager, Corbin Carroll Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

May 7, 2024

Are fantasy baseball mainstays Josh Hader, Corey Seager, and Corbin Carroll buy-lows, sell-highs, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball values.

The calendar has flipped to May, so it's time to assess your fantasy players. Players who aren't performing may force us to adjust our expectations moving forward rather than assume positive regression is coming.

Of course, we don't want to cut bait on a superstar who goes supernova for five months, either. It's a delicate balancing act.

Three fantasy underperformers thus far are Josh Hader, Corey Seager, and Corbin Carroll. Will they recover their fantasy value or should managers sell them at a discount? Let's find out!

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Josh Hader, Houston Astros

96% Rostered

Hader was the second reliever off the board in most fantasy drafts, so his 6.14 ERA in 14.2 IP is a shocker. His "luck metrics" have been awful with a .400 BABIP, 25% HR/FB, and 54.9% strand rate. As such, his ERA estimators like xERA (2.98) and xFIP (2.08) are much stronger.

Luckily, bad luck is likely the root cause of all his issues. He has a .199 xBA and .337 xSLG based on the exit velocities and launch angles he's allowed, so he doesn't deserve his .255 BAA or his .418 slugging percentage. His velocity has held steady at 96.3 mph year over year, and there's no significant pitch mix change that could've gone awry.

Hader is still dominating opposing hitters with his 38.1% K%, and his 11.1% BB% is comparable to his career rate of 10.3%. His 25.8% FB% is roughly half his career rate of 48.8%, so he's doing a better job limiting airborne contact without being rewarded.

The Astros haven't lost faith in Hader despite his ugly results, and he only has one blown save on the season. His save total of three is low, but that's just as much on Houston's performance as a team than Hader himself.

With elite strikeout totals and maximal job security, Hader is a Champ for this season. He's a great buy-low candidate if his current manager soured on him.

Corey Seager, Texas Rangers

98% Rostered

Fantasy managers understood they were taking on injury risk when drafting Seager, but the thought of him being healthy but playing poorly seemed absurd. That's where we find ourselves considering his .228/.303/.291 line with two homers over 142 PAs.

Seager's plate discipline isn't the problem. His 9.2% BB% and 18.3% K% are comparable to his career marks of 9.3% and 17.7%, respectively. Seager's 90.2% Z-Contact% would be a career-best, his 10.9% SwStr% his second-best, and his 32.2% chase rate is virtually identical to his career 32% mark.

Seager's batted ball distribution is odd but reads more flukish than anything else. His 41.2% FB% would be a career-best if Seager maintains it, so he's elevating the baseball. His 14.7% LD% is well south of his career rate of 22.2% though, explaining his .270 BABIP (.318 career).

LD% isn't predictive of anything in small samples, so positive regression should be expected. Seager's expected statistics are better than his actual numbers with a .247 xBA and .429 xSLG, and both will increase if Seager starts hitting liners at his career rate.

The 30-year-old Seager is still a fixture as the second hitter in Texas's potent lineup, so the counting stats fantasy managers expected should still be coming. Provided he remains healthy, Seager is a Champ and an intriguing buy-low opportunity if available at any discount.

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

99% Rostered

Last year, Carroll won NL Rookie of the Year with a .285/.362/.506 triple slash line, 25 HR, and 54 SB. This year, that's declined to .203/.297/.250 with one homer and eight steals across 145 PAs. What happened?

The answer is threefold. First, bad luck has been an issue. Carroll's .232 xBA is 30 points better than his actual average, while his .350 xSLG is 100 points better than his slugging percentage. All of these numbers are substantially worse than last year, however.

Let's compare Carroll's contact quality this year to 2023.

2024:

2023:

Carroll hit the ball better last season no matter what metric you look at. His rate of Brls/BBE (called Barrel% above) fell by 2.7%. His xBA took a hit because his IFFB% surged from 11.7% in 2023 to 27.5% this season. Average exit velocity can be deceptive since it doesn't account for launch angle, but Carroll's airborne EV has fallen from 93.6 mph in 2023 to 91.6 mph in 2024.

Some have speculated that Carroll's loss of power is injury-related, possibly a wrist issue sustained when he crashed into teammate Jake McCarthy on April 14. However, the 23-year-old swears he's healthy and his struggles began before the collision, so we have to assume that health isn't the reason unless we hear differently.

The real issue is that fantasy gamers overestimated Carroll's power. His 2023 contact quality looks great next to his 2024 numbers, but his xSLG of .441 was 65 points below his actual mark. His Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, and Sweet-Spot% are all in blue. Carroll's xBA was only .268, 17 points below his batting average.

Carroll's scouting report indicated a classic leadoff profile with speed, plate discipline, and contact ability. His power bloomed late in hitter-friendly environments, but he was such a highly-regarded prospect that the possibility of it being a mirage was never seriously considered. Once he cracked 25 homers as a rookie, that became the baseline.

Carroll has some pop but not enough to justify his position as a top-five draft pick back in March. Furthermore, Arizona has the lowest HR factor for left-handed hitters like Carroll at 73. It's not the right place for a guy with marginal power.

Carroll's strengths are regressing too. His 28.9 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed ranks in the 92nd percentile, but his 30.1 ft./sec ranked in the 99th last year. Similarly, his K% improved from 19.4% to 17.9%, but his Z-Contact% is down from 88.5% to 86.3%. His O-Contact% is up six points (68.2% to 74.2%), potentially explaining why he's hitting the ball with less authority.

Carroll is on pace for nearly 50 SB, so he can't be dropped in any format. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks have relegated him to seventh or eighth in the batting order so he won't generate the counting stats expected of a first-round pick. The power probably isn't coming back, and he's likely more of a .260-.270 hitter than the .285 he put up last season.

Sadly, the prudent move is trading Carroll for as much value as possible. He's still a fantasy asset but a Chump considering his inflated draft price.

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