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Do the hot starts of outfielders Jake McCarthy (Diamondbacks) and Heliot Ramos (Giants) make them fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value.
Mookie Betts fractured his left wrist on Sunday, leaving fantasy managers scrambling for a replacement. If you're using Betts in the middle infield, the preferred replacement is David Hamilton. Hamilton bizarrely lost playing time so the Red Sox could play center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela (four Outs Above Average) as a terrible shortstop (-6 OAA), but his .288/340/.446 line forced his way back into the lineup. We evaluated him previously.
The Dodgers made a similarly baffling decision by using Betts at short (-5 OAA), but that's not our concern. If you need an outfielder to replace Betts, two names to consider are Jake McCarthy and Heliot Ramos. Both are off to hot starts, but one is a far better bet to maintain long-term fantasy viability.
Which one? Let's find out!
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Jake McCarthy (OF, ARI) 5% Rostered
McCarthy is hitting .279/.365/.409 with 10 steals and three homers over 180 plate appearances. The 27-year-old has elite wheels, with his 29.2 feet/sec Statcast Sprint Speed ranking in the 94th percentile. He also offers strong plate discipline with a 24.8% chase rate, 8.7% SwStr%, and 91.3% Z-Contact% producing a 10% BB% and 17.8% K%.
The combination is enticing for fantasy managers, but he's largely a forgotten man. McCarthy made his MLB debut in 2021 and broke through the next season, slashing .283/.342/.427 with eight homers and 23 SB in 354 PAs. His .349 BABIP was a little high, but his plate discipline was solid (6.5% BB%, 21.5% K%) and he was only caught stealing thrice for a success rate of 88%.
Expectations were high in 2023, but McCarthy regressed to a .243/.318/.326 line with two homers and 26 steals in 312 PAs. The performance saw McCarthy lose playing time and even his MLB roster spot, but it wasn't as bad as it initially appeared.
McCarthy was on pace for 50 steals over a full season in 2023, giving him a lot of fantasy upside. He was only caught stealing four times, and his 87% success rate on SB attempts was nearly as good as 2022. He also attempted more steals despite logging fewer PAs and reaching base less often, indicating a willingness to run that should've endeared him to fantasy managers.
Furthermore, McCarthy's plate discipline improved to an 8.3% BB% and 19.9% K%, indicating growth stymied by his .305 BABIP.
"A .305 BABIP is more sustainable than a .349 mark!" you might be saying. That's typically true, but McCarthy has the profile of a huge BABIP guy. He's fast and has a career FB% of 29.9%, giving him a chance to leg out a hit on most of his batted balls. He's also posted a LD% above the league average in every MLB season, taking full advantage of the best batted-ball type for BABIP.
This season, McCarthy has a .331 BABIP effectively splitting the difference between 2022 and 2023. His xBA of .271 is similar to his actual average, and we can say his current mark is deserved since xBA consistently underrates elite speedsters. He is 10-for-11 on SB attempts this year, good for a success rate of 91%. McCarthy should have the green light to run wild.
To be clear, McCarthy's profile isn't perfect. The Diamondbacks platoon him, so he doesn't start against left-handed starters. He hits fifth or sixth in the lineup when his profile would work better at the top of the order. He ranks in the first percentile in HardHit%, meaning the entire league has more oomph than him.
Still, he should hit for a decent average and contribute plenty of SBs, a combination that should be rostered in way more than five percent of Yahoo! leagues. This Champ is especially valuable in leagues with daily lineup changes since you can bench him whenever Arizona faces a lefty. Likewise, his value increases in OBP formats and points leagues that care about walks.
Heliot Ramos (OF, SF) 72% Rostered
Ramos ranks as one of the biggest early surprises of the 2024 season, slashing .326/.404/.561 with eight long balls and a steal across 151 PAs. He logged MLB time in both 2022 and 2023, generally in a reserve role and without much success at the plate. Furthermore, his MiLB history is pedestrian at best:
Ramos didn't consistently hit well until 2023. You could say that his development took that long, but it's just as easy to argue his success resulted from a tiny sample in the hitter-happy Pacific Coast League. Most of his peripherals support the latter argument.
In 2023, Ramos hit .300/.382/.546 with 12 HR and nine steals in 263 PAs. His plate discipline looks decent with a 10.3% BB% against a 25.1% K%, but his SwStr% was an atrocious 15.3%. His 25 HR pace is threatened by his 28.4% FB%, suggesting an inability to lift the ball like a slugger should. Even his steals were a mirage with four CS for a success rate of 69%. Naturally, his .368 BABIP wouldn't be expected to repeat at the highest level.
In 2024, Ramos hit .296/.388/.565 with eight homers and two steals in 134 PAs. His SwStr% improved dramatically to 11.9%, but his K% increased to 27.6% against an 11.9% BB%. He didn't learn to elevate the ball with a 29.9% FB%, and his two SB attempts suggest his poor success rate in 2023 earned him a red light. An unsustainable .366 BABIP still propped up his overall line.
Ramos hits the ball hard if his Statcast metrics are any indication:
However, he hasn't solved any of the problems mentioned above. A 14.4% SwStr% supports his 28.5% K%, so swing-and-miss is still a huge bugaboo. Worse, his 79.7% Z-Contact% indicates he's swinging through strikes, not just put-away pitches.
His 28.9% FB% is too low for a guy with a 30.8% HR/FB, so he's not elevating the ball. Ramos's home park has an 80 HR factor for RHB from 2022 to 2024, so his HR/FB should be expected to decline as well.
Finally, his .427 BABIP is way too high. His xBA is .276, a whopping 50 points below his actual mark. Even .276 would be an aggressive projection moving forward considering his strikeout rate.
The 24-year-old Ramos hits the ball hard, but there's too many strikeouts and grounders in his profile. He plays for a team with a weak offense in a pitcher's park. He doesn't steal. There's nothing wrong with riding a hot streak, but that's all you're doing with this Chump.
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