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Is Jackson Holliday a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into the 2024 fantasy value of Baltimore's top prospect.
Well-regarded prospects are breaking camp with their clubs more frequently these days, which is why Wyatt Langford started with the Rangers and Jackson Merrill got a trip to South Korea. However, the fantasy community is greedy. We want every top prospect to debut on Opening Day.
As such, many fantasy managers were disappointed when the Orioles elected not to bring the No. 1 prospect in the game, Jackson Holliday, north. That disappointment transformed into elation when Baltimore summoned the 20-year-old to the big leagues on April 10. He would still be able to play nearly the entire season!
Sadly, Holliday hasn't helped fantasy managers yet. He's hitting .067 with a 60 K%. He's certainly better than that, but has the prospect hype produced dreams of fantasy production that won't be realized? Let's find out!
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The Scouting Report on Jackson Holliday
Holliday is the top prospect in baseball according to both FanGraphs and MLB.com, so scouts love him. It's easy to assume that fantasy managers should love him too, but remember that professional scouts and fantasy baseball gamers are looking for different things. Holliday's FanGraphs scouting report provides a good example:
The numbers on the left indicate a player's present grades, meaning what scouts expect if the player was dropped into MLB right now. That's what fantasy managers in redraft leagues care about. The ones on the right indicate future grades, or where scouts see a player settling in long-term.
Over the long term, FanGraphs expects Holliday to combine an above-average hit tool with above-average game power. Today, his hit tool is below-average while his game power is virtually non-existent. Holliday's lofty prospect ranking is predicated on his future potential, not his game-changing ability in his rookie season.
MLB.com doesn't offer present and future grades like FanGraphs, but their projections usually skew toward future grades. They give Holliday 70-grade hit and 60-grade power, but the scouting report notes that he's "still adding strength." Holliday hasn't reached physical maturity yet, and he needs to fill out his frame before hitting for the power expected of a top prospect.
Holliday should fill out his frame. After all, we know what his father Matt Holliday looked like. He won't do so immediately, however. It will probably take a few years for Holliday to master his power stroke.
Jackson Holliday on the Farm
Holliday has generally put up massive MiLB numbers backed by outstanding plate discipline, but his HR and SB totals haven't been fantasy-friendly. He spent most of last season with High-A (Frederick), hitting .314/.452/.488 with five homers and 17 steals over 259 PAs. His plate discipline was outstanding, as his 19.3 BB% nearly matched his 20.8% K%. He also posted an 8.4% SwStr%.
Unfortunately, Holliday is highly unlikely to repeat his .405 BABIP at the highest level. His 24% FB% was also very low, which helped his BABIP but curtailed his power production. Unlike other prospects with low FB% rates, Holliday's 13.9% HR/FB wasn't high enough to say he's a swing adjustment away from unlocking huge power. The 17 steals were accompanied by seven CS, producing a mediocre success rate of 71%.
Still, the overall line was ridiculous and the Orioles promoted him to Double-A (Bowie). There, Holliday hit .338/.421/.507 with three homers and three stolen bases in 164 PAs. His BB% tumbled to 12.8%, but his K% held steady at 20.7%. That said, his SwStr% increased a little to 10.1%.
His BABIP jumped to .425 in the tiny sample, and his FB% increased to 32.4% while his HR/FB fell to 8.6%. Again, his success was BABIP-driven. Holliday didn't hit the volume of fly balls or put the oomph behind them for big power numbers. He was also caught stealing once for a break-even success rate of 75%.
Holliday finished the 2023 campaign with Triple-A (Norfolk), hitting .267/.396/.400 with two homers and a steal in 91 PAs. His plate discipline was superb with a 17.6% BB%, 18.7% K%, and 9.3% SwStr%. His BABIP declined to .321 though, while his 20.7% FB% was way too low to produce power numbers. His 16.7% HR/FB looks like an improvement, but that's more indicative of the power-friendly environment of Triple-A than anything Holliday did.
Holliday returned to Norfolk this year and hit .333/.482/.595 with two homers and a steal in 56 PAs. His 21.4% BB% was insane, but his 14.3% K% masked his 10.4% SwStr%. Holliday's .364 BABIP was still high, and his 26.5% FB% was still low. He's a work in progress.
Jackson Holliday's Team Context
Baltimore may have called Holliday to the big club, but they're giving him something less than a full opportunity. The team is platooning him, benching him in favor of Jorge Mateo when lefty DL Hall started against them on April 13. He's also hitting ninth, a lineup role that won't give him the counting stats or ABs needed for fantasy purposes.
Holliday is a shortstop by trade, but the Orioles are playing him out of position at 2B. His defense has hurt the team by this author's eye test, potentially limiting his opportunities moving forward.
If Holliday doesn't work out immediately, the team could easily pivot to another top prospect. Coby Mayo slugged 29 HR last season and has a .369/.417/.692 line at Triple-A, outperforming Holliday. Mayo won't play 2B, but Mateo, Jordan Westburg, and Ramon Urias all have middle infield experience and could play the keystone while Mayo plays his natural position of 3B. It would essentially be a one-for-one swap.
The Final Verdict on Jackson Holliday
Holliday has a bright future ahead of him, but he's still extremely raw. His eye has abandoned him with a 45.5% chase rate as an Oriole, contributing to a 22.7% SwStr% that has him looking overmatched. He's yet to add loft to his swing and fill out his frame, and his SB success rate needs work. His glovework at second base is also questionable.
Projection systems are pessimistic about his immediate prospects:
Fantasy managers in keeper and dynasty formats should roster Holliday now as the long-term upside is too great to ignore. However, he's unlikely to help in redraft leagues as a .250ish hitter with little power or speed. For this year only, Holliday is a Chump who doesn't need to be rostered in 87% of leagues.
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