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Are top prospects Jace Jung (Detroit 2B/3B) and Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay 3B) fantasy breakouts, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.
Traditionally, teams wait until September to call up promising rookies. September rosters no longer expand to 3,000 players per team, so clubs will take the plunge earlier if they think a prospect could benefit from big league time.
Two teams recently made this decision. Jace Jung, younger brother of Texas' Josh Jung, and the No. 64 prospect on MLB.com, is now a Detroit Tiger. Likewise, Tampa Bay replaced the traded Isaac Paredes with the game's No. 2 prospect, Junior Caminero.
Seeing top prospects get the call is always exciting, but what will they offer in fantasy? Let's find out!
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Jace Jung (2B, DET) 6% Rostered
Jung is off to a solid start, slashing .333/.500/.333 in 12 MLB PAs. That's way too small a sample to draw conclusions from, so we have to look at other data points for an idea of what to expect.
A quick look at Jung's scouting report tells us his power will be his carrying tool in fantasy. Here is his FanGraphs scouting report:
It's a classic power-over-hit profile, but the scouts see enough of a hit tool for Jung to access his power and produce in games. He doesn't offer much speed, and his best defensive tool is his arm. Detroit concurs, playing Jung primarily at third base even though he was drafted as a second baseman.
MLB.com's scouting report is startlingly similar:
This report likes Jung's hit tool a little more, but his power is still the calling card. He can't run and his glove is a minus, but the overall grade of 55 suggests the entire package will work at the highest level.
The traditional scouting report doesn't include plate discipline, and Jung's is outstanding. He established himself as a prospect in 2023 with Double-A (Erie), hitting .284/.373/.563 with 14 HR in just 209 PAs. He struck out at a 26.8% clip, but his underlying 13.7% SwStr% wasn't bad. Jung also walked 11% of the time, offsetting some Ks.
More importantly, Jung's swing is ideal for producing power. He's great at lift, with 45.7% of his batted balls at Double-A classified as flies. He also led full-season Tigers prospects with a 53% Pull% in 2023, making it easier for him to find the cheap seats.
Jung earned a promotion to Triple-A (Toledo) to begin the 2024 campaign and hit .257/.377/.454 with 14 HR in 415 PAs. The overall power numbers came down because his HR/FB regressed from 24.1% at Double-A to 13.7%, but he still elevated the ball with a 41.3% FB%. The lack of oomph is mildly concerning but probably a small sample fluke considering his scouting report.
Meanwhile, Jung's plate discipline improved dramatically with a 16.1% BB% against a 22.4% K%. His SwStr% fell by three ticks to 10.1%, while his eye was excellent with a 23% chase rate.
Jung has 2B eligibility on most platforms since that's what he played last season, but Detroit is using him at 3B and he should quickly gain eligibility there. He's currently hitting seventh, but Detroit's lineup lacks established stars and he might work his way up if he produces.
This Champ should produce at a 20-HR full-season pace with the upside for 30 right away, with extra value in OBP leagues and points formats that value walks.
Junior Caminero (3B, TB) 56% Rostered
Caminero is also off to a fast start, slashing .333/455/.333 in 22 PAs. Again, we need to look at larger sample sizes and scouting reports to determine what to expect moving forward.
Let's begin with Caminero's FanGraphs scouting report:
It's similar to Jung's: power-over-hit profile, can't run, weak glove, strong arm. Caminero is two years younger, so he gets a higher future value (FV) score. However, the written scouting report provides cause for concern.
First, the scouts see a clear weakness opposing pitchers can exploit: "Caminero's cacophonous cut leaves him vulnerable to good velocity up around his hands." Nearly every MLB arm has good velocity these days, so Caminero will struggle unless he fixes the issue.
Second, "his breaking ball recognition and overall plate discipline are both pretty crude." His plate discipline looks like a strength from a glance at Caminero's MiLB performance, but it seems he's just taking advantage of flawed MiLB pitching.
A closer look at Caminero's minor league resume reveals more red flags. He hit .309/.373/.548 with 20 HR in 351 PAs at Double-A (Montgomery) last year, outstanding for a season that began at age 19.
His plate discipline looked strong with a 9.1% BB% against a 17.1% K%, but his 12.2% SwStr% suggests he deserved more strikeouts. Similarly, you'd like to see something higher than his 34% FB% to take advantage of his 23.3% HR/FB.
Caminero was rewarded with a brief MLB cup of coffee last season, hitting .235 in 36 PAs. He began the 2024 campaign at Triple-A (Durham) but was limited to 236 PAs by a Grade-2 quad strain suffered at the end of May. He hit .276/.331/.498 with 13 HR.
Unfortunately, most of his peripherals went the wrong way. Caminero's 30.2% HR/FB was muted by his 26.5% FB%, suggesting he'll need to change his swing to make the most of his elite raw power. Likewise, his 6.8% BB% and 21.2% K% were worse than his Double-A marks. His 11.4% SwStr% and 29% chase rate weren't bad, especially for a 20-year-old at Triple-A.
The Rays have been hitting Caminero fifth, a role that carries significant RBI potential. However, this is the Rays we're talking about. Fantasy managers have learned that no player is safe from their endless lineup shuffling.
It's easy to see why Caminero is such a highly-regarded prospect, but he's still raw. He struggles with hard stuff up and in, his plate discipline isn't polished, and he doesn't elevate the ball enough to take full advantage of his prodigious raw power. Adding loft probably means more swing-and-miss, making it difficult to solve both issues at once.
This author gets Jackson Holliday vibes where the player is obviously talented but likely years away from becoming a fantasy mainstay. In keeper and dynasty formats, the wait will be worth it. In redraft formats, this Chump doesn't need to be rostered in so many leagues.
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