RADIO
Rick Lucks reviews five players from previous entries to give a final verdict as to their Champ or Chump status for the 2016 fantasy baseball season.
The point of Champ or Chump is to use every metric imaginable to try to predict how a player will perform in the future. It's not always right, as true talent levels change while luck plays a role in every play's individual outcome. Historically, I conclude the analysis based on what I see as the most likely outcome and then move on, never looking back to see if I was right or wrong.
That ends now. While I could introduce names for 2017 draft prep, there will be plenty of time for that in the coming months. Instead, I'm taking a second look at the five most interesting (in my opinion, of course) players to appear in Champ or Chump during the 2016 season. My selections will probably seem completely arbitrary, but I ruled out more recent analysis and anyone that failed to meet expectations due to injury. There are still way too many names to cover everyone, so I focused on personal favorites. Without further ado, let's see how I did. Verdicts are based on my original prediction, not the player's performance.
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The Fantasy Jury Is Out
Jeanmar Gomez (RP, PHI)
The first RP in this column's history is also the first to get a second look in the same season. Way back on April 16, I encouraged readers to add Gomez as something more than Philadelphia's closer of the moment. He lacked the Ks generally expected of a closer, but offered a strong GB% in a park that requires it. He also had a history of beating the league average ERA. I speculated both that the Phils would get enough save opportunities for fantasy owners to care and that Gomez would be boring enough to avoid Trade Deadline suitors, allowing him to compile saves all year.
I was mostly right. Gomez has 37 saves, tied for seventh in all of baseball. He failed to accumulate an appreciable number of Ks (15.8% K%), allowing him to remain a Phillie past July 31. The league ERA is 4.20 as I type this, and Gomez bettered that number in four of six months this year. One of the outliers was June's 4.35 ERA, which isn't too much higher.
His final ERA of 4.85 provides a hint to just how disastrous September has been, as Gomez's 19.13 ERA over eight innings this month is awful. He has finally lost the closer's job, but 37 saves are worth far more than what you paid for him. He's better than his September numbers, but I think the Gomez train has left the station. For fantasy purposes, I'm confident in labeling him a one year wonder.
Verdict: Champ
Joey Votto (1B, CIN)
After an April that saw Votto hit just .229 with two homers, I got the bright idea to call Votto a Chump on May 1. I was right for a month, as Votto's .200 average dragged down the value of seven dingers in May. After that, oops is all I can say. Votto currently has 28 bombs, a .324/.435/.545 triple slash line, and 191 R+RBI with three more games to add to the totals.
My original analysis centered on the fact that Votto was pulling too many grounders, hurting his average, while simultaneously failing to pull anything in the air, hurting his power totals. A 70+ Pull% on his grounders in April declined to 53.2% by year's end, meaning that the shift no longer hampered his batting average. Votto's power has always been hit or miss, but his Pull% on flies has at least broken into double digits (11.6%). I also noted that pitchers were challenging Votto more in an effort to take his elite eye out of the equation. It proved to be a statistical blip, though, as his final Zone% of 44.7% is far closer to his career 43.1% mark than April's nearly 50 percent figure.
If this prediction burned you, know that I practiced what I preached and traded Votto in an NL-Only league for Giancarlo Stanton and Jon Gray, both of whom were Champs in this column. Stanton got hurt, again, shortly thereafter, while Gray's production was nowhere near enough to replace Votto's performance. The trade doomed me to a middling finish. I accept my punishment.
Verdict: Chump
David Price (SP, BOS)
On May 9, I puzzled over Price's excellent 4-0 record and decidedly less excellent 6.14 ERA. As an adherent of DIPS theory, I trusted in Price's 30.6% K% and 2.88 FIP over the inflated BABIP caused by a fluky 29+ LD% and the tiny strand rate it caused. I assured readers he would return to ace form.
That kind of happened. Price's final ERA of 4.04 is much better than 6.14, but still far higher than owners expected when they selected Price to lead their pitching staff. Boston continued to support him ably, allowing Price to post a record of 17-9. On the downside, his K% fell to a good 24.1% instead of the great 30.6% number, a change I should have seen coming in retrospect due to the changeup ranking as the only plus plus pitch in Price's repertoire. He's also been homer prone, as his current 13.5% HR/FB is a career worst. As a result, his FIP is actually higher now (3.55) than it was before.
Price's BABIP and strand rate normalized as I thought they would, and Price was certainly useful this year. I promised an ace, however, and I don't think he lived up to that title. If he continues to rely almost exclusively on one pitch to get Ks, it may be best to count on him only as a #2 next season.
Verdict: Chump
Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT)
In a column published on June 19, I argued that Pittsburgh's superstar was beginning a new phase of his career. Age has robbed him of the athleticism he was once famous for, as his SB attempts, UBR, and defensive metrics all pointed to a noticeable decline. Boasting only six swipes against seven CS, this part of my analysis was right on the money. Cutch does not appear to be a speed asset in fantasy anymore.
I went on to argue that 2016 would be a lost year, but that 2017 would see an uptick in power production to recoup most of the superstar's value. He was hitting a lot more fly balls and pulling them with a little more frequency at the time. However, his current FB% of 41.7% is not that much higher than his 38.6% career rate. I also brought up the possibility of McCutchen selling out for power to make up for his loss of speed, but his 10.5% SwStr% does not support this theory very well. It was 12.5% at the time of writing, but his current number is only two tenths of a point higher than last year's mark.
I labelled 2016 as a lost year, and a triple slash line of .255/.337/.432 certainly qualifies as that from a first round selection. Therefore, my Chump tag was deserved. My optimism for next year, however, has been tempered considerably. I don't think I'm getting any shares unless he falls to the midway point of drafts. Even then, I might roll the dice with a sleeper.
Verdict: Champ
Drew Pomeranz (SP, BOS)
I was far from the only person who speculated that Pomeranz would struggle in Boston. He's a BABIP-suppression type of pitcher who FIP always seems to catch up with in the end, and he had to face a DH in a hitter friendly ballpark after the trade from San Diego. He had a great K% at the time, but none of his offerings really stand out by SwStr%. I called for the K% to regress and the ERA to balloon.
After the trade, Pomeranz posted a 4.68 ERA, 4.87 FIP, and a 3-5 record. The team is demoting him to the bullpen for their postseason run, proving that he was not the impact addition he may have appeared to be on the surface. His final numbers (11-12, 3.35 ERA) still look reasonable, but he needed to post a 16% LD% against to do it. If that reverts even to Pomeranz's career average of 19%, he could be in for a world of hurt.
Pomeranz lacks the stuff to repeat his current K%, and control types typically struggle in Boston. If you drafted Sonny Gray in 2016, you know what to expect in 2017 from Drew Pomeranz. Avoid if at all possible.
Verdict: Champ
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