January 18, 2018

Rick Lucks previews the fantasy prospects of Freddy Galvis and Jay Bruce to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.

Baseball's hot stove is finally starting to heat up a bit, with names like Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole headed to new addresses in 2018. It's late in coming, but now is the time some fantasy owners begin overlooking the smaller moves to concentrate on the biggest names. Don't make that mistake.

This doesn't mean that bigger names should be ignored; Jay Bruce is covered below and the former Pirates will be featured in the coming weeks.

Big names aside, you should also consider unheralded names such as Freddy Galvis for your fantasy roster. Value is value, right?

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Freddy Galvis (SS, SD)

Galvis was boring roster glue at best last season, slashing .255/.309/.382 with 12 HR and 14 SB (five CS). The 28-year old is probably younger than you think he is, and the pedestrian numbers above mask the best plate discipline metrics of the shortstop's career (6.8% BB%, 16.7% K%). His 33.1% chase rate represented a career best (37.7% career), and his 7.6% SwStr% was Galvis's lowest since his rookie year in 2012.

Refusing to strikeout is a big piece of how Galvis hits a handful of homers every year. His raw power is essentially nonexistent (89.9 mph average airborne exit velocity, 2.4% Brls/BBE), but he hits enough fly balls (39.2% FB% last year) to luck into 10-15 HR per season. Avoiding the K gives Galvis more balls in play than your average player, potentially giving the switch-hitter enough volume to hit homers despite a disastrous ballpark switch.

Citizens Bank Park was one of the most power-friendly stadiums in baseball last year, posting a HR factor of 116 for LHB and 119 for RHB. Petco Park was nearly the exact opposite, posting a HR factor of 88 for LHB and 93 for RHB. Galvis's batting average could benefit from his left side (1B factors of 95 vs. 98 in favor of San Diego), while the two stadiums had identical 1B factors of 98 in 2017.

Singles and SB are likely the most viable path to fantasy relevance Galvis has. His raw speed is above average, clocking in at 27.4 ft./sec per Statcast's Sprint Speed metric last year. His .292 BABIP last year exceeded his .284 career rate thanks to a 24.1% LD%, but he beat his 21.9% career LD% in both 2016 (23.5%) and 2015 (22.2%). It may be more sustainable than it initially appears.

Galvis's career BABIP on grounders is just .230 (.228 last year), but should have some upside. Galvis is an above average runner with no pull tendency (49.4% Pull% on the ground last season), allowing him to crush the shift for a .370 batting average over 98 PAs last year (.301 career). His average exit velocity on ground balls is not  impressive (80.3 mph), but should be enough to get his BABIP on ground balls to .250 or so.

That would boost Galvis's batting average to something in the .265-.270 range with 20 SB and 10 HR potential. Not the most exciting numbers, and certainly nothing to reach for in standard formats. However, in leagues where playing time alone justifies a draft choice, Galvis's ability to do something with his time on the field is likely to make him a draft-day value.

Verdict: Champ

Jay Bruce (OF, NYM)

Bruce hit a bunch of dingers in 2017, smacking 36 to go with an otherwise pedestrian .254/.324/.508 line. The campaign looks like the definition of a fluke as all of his indicators either held steady or regressed during his career year.

Fantasy owners are likely to look to Bruce for power, so let's start there. His 18.5% HR/FB was virtually identical to his career 17% career rate, but he pulled fewer flies relative to his career average (23.6% vs. 26.4%) and posted his lowest average airborne exit velocity in the Statcast Era (92.4 mph vs. 93.1 in 2016 and 93.0 in 2015). His rate of Brls/BBE spiked (10.5% vs. 8.7% in 2016 and 8.6% in 2015), but it remained very good as opposed to great.

Bruce's power explosion was the result of hitting a ton of fly balls (46.7% FB%, 42.4% career) that may simply be unsustainable moving forward. Regression to even his career rate could knock his HR total back into the upper 20s with a poor batting average, numbers that may belong on the waiver wire considering how easy homers are to find these days.

Even if Bruce manages another 30+ dinger season, his average might make owning him difficult without a few high-average guys to balance him out. His K% improved last year (22.5% vs. 23.7% career), but the underlying SwStr% (13% vs. 12.6%) argues against any actual improvement taking place.

Bruce's career BABIP is .283, and last year's .274 mark failed to reach it even with an extra point of LD% (20.8%) relative to his career rate (19.9%). The problem is Bruce's ground balls, which produced a BABIP of .191 against a career rate of .226.

Regression to his career average should not be expected moving forward, as the 31-year old is just old enough to have debuted before the shift completely caught on. Bruce was shifted in 348 of his 383 PAs last season, hitting .273 against it (.303 without it). That number likely overestimates Bruce's batting average potential, as he pulled 69.1% of his grounders vs. 63.2% over his career. He could easily hit less than .200 against the shift this year if he keeps pulling grounders at a 70% clip.

Bruce is not a plus runner (26.5 ft./sec per Statcast Sprint Speed for the second year in a row), so he won't beat out as many grounders as other players will. His average exit velocity on the ground was above average (83.3 mph), but the worst mark Bruce has produced in the Statcast Era (84.2 mph in 2016, 86.1 mph in 2015). These considerations only exasperate the problems Bruce is likely to have with the shift in the future.

Bruce also signed up for a ballpark that actively suppresses a left-handed batter's offense. Citi Field hurt lefties in both batting average (96 1B factor) and power production (92 HR factor). Cleveland enhances both for left-handed hitters (102 1B factor, 106 HR factor), but Bruce failed to capitalize on it in the couple of months he spent in Cleveland (.248/.331/.477 with seven homers in 169 PAs with Cleveland).

Finally, the Mets may be deep enough where playing time is not assured for Bruce if he ends up in an extended funk. Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes are both corner outfielders who would have to play over Bruce if everyone is healthy, and the team's pitching staff would appreciate an actual centerfielder such as Juan Lagares handling the position instead of a corner type. Initial speculation saw Bruce potentially shifting to first base, but the rumored signing of Adrian Gonzalez plus Dominic Smith's presence on the roster complicates that calculus a bit.

That leaves us with a low batting average, power-only hitter who may not produce enough home runs to make up for it. Let somebody else pay for last year's production.

Verdict: Chump

More 2018 Player Outlooks