X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump - Freddy Galvis and Jay Bruce

Rick Lucks previews the fantasy prospects of Freddy Galvis and Jay Bruce to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.

Baseball's hot stove is finally starting to heat up a bit, with names like Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole headed to new addresses in 2018. It's late in coming, but now is the time some fantasy owners begin overlooking the smaller moves to concentrate on the biggest names. Don't make that mistake.

This doesn't mean that bigger names should be ignored; Jay Bruce is covered below and the former Pirates will be featured in the coming weeks.

Big names aside, you should also consider unheralded names such as Freddy Galvis for your fantasy roster. Value is value, right?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Freddy Galvis (SS, SD)

Galvis was boring roster glue at best last season, slashing .255/.309/.382 with 12 HR and 14 SB (five CS). The 28-year old is probably younger than you think he is, and the pedestrian numbers above mask the best plate discipline metrics of the shortstop's career (6.8% BB%, 16.7% K%). His 33.1% chase rate represented a career best (37.7% career), and his 7.6% SwStr% was Galvis's lowest since his rookie year in 2012.

Refusing to strikeout is a big piece of how Galvis hits a handful of homers every year. His raw power is essentially nonexistent (89.9 mph average airborne exit velocity, 2.4% Brls/BBE), but he hits enough fly balls (39.2% FB% last year) to luck into 10-15 HR per season. Avoiding the K gives Galvis more balls in play than your average player, potentially giving the switch-hitter enough volume to hit homers despite a disastrous ballpark switch.

Citizens Bank Park was one of the most power-friendly stadiums in baseball last year, posting a HR factor of 116 for LHB and 119 for RHB. Petco Park was nearly the exact opposite, posting a HR factor of 88 for LHB and 93 for RHB. Galvis's batting average could benefit from his left side (1B factors of 95 vs. 98 in favor of San Diego), while the two stadiums had identical 1B factors of 98 in 2017.

Singles and SB are likely the most viable path to fantasy relevance Galvis has. His raw speed is above average, clocking in at 27.4 ft./sec per Statcast's Sprint Speed metric last year. His .292 BABIP last year exceeded his .284 career rate thanks to a 24.1% LD%, but he beat his 21.9% career LD% in both 2016 (23.5%) and 2015 (22.2%). It may be more sustainable than it initially appears.

Galvis's career BABIP on grounders is just .230 (.228 last year), but should have some upside. Galvis is an above average runner with no pull tendency (49.4% Pull% on the ground last season), allowing him to crush the shift for a .370 batting average over 98 PAs last year (.301 career). His average exit velocity on ground balls is not  impressive (80.3 mph), but should be enough to get his BABIP on ground balls to .250 or so.

That would boost Galvis's batting average to something in the .265-.270 range with 20 SB and 10 HR potential. Not the most exciting numbers, and certainly nothing to reach for in standard formats. However, in leagues where playing time alone justifies a draft choice, Galvis's ability to do something with his time on the field is likely to make him a draft-day value.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jay Bruce (OF, NYM)

Bruce hit a bunch of dingers in 2017, smacking 36 to go with an otherwise pedestrian .254/.324/.508 line. The campaign looks like the definition of a fluke as all of his indicators either held steady or regressed during his career year.

Fantasy owners are likely to look to Bruce for power, so let's start there. His 18.5% HR/FB was virtually identical to his career 17% career rate, but he pulled fewer flies relative to his career average (23.6% vs. 26.4%) and posted his lowest average airborne exit velocity in the Statcast Era (92.4 mph vs. 93.1 in 2016 and 93.0 in 2015). His rate of Brls/BBE spiked (10.5% vs. 8.7% in 2016 and 8.6% in 2015), but it remained very good as opposed to great.

Bruce's power explosion was the result of hitting a ton of fly balls (46.7% FB%, 42.4% career) that may simply be unsustainable moving forward. Regression to even his career rate could knock his HR total back into the upper 20s with a poor batting average, numbers that may belong on the waiver wire considering how easy homers are to find these days.

Even if Bruce manages another 30+ dinger season, his average might make owning him difficult without a few high-average guys to balance him out. His K% improved last year (22.5% vs. 23.7% career), but the underlying SwStr% (13% vs. 12.6%) argues against any actual improvement taking place.

Bruce's career BABIP is .283, and last year's .274 mark failed to reach it even with an extra point of LD% (20.8%) relative to his career rate (19.9%). The problem is Bruce's ground balls, which produced a BABIP of .191 against a career rate of .226.

Regression to his career average should not be expected moving forward, as the 31-year old is just old enough to have debuted before the shift completely caught on. Bruce was shifted in 348 of his 383 PAs last season, hitting .273 against it (.303 without it). That number likely overestimates Bruce's batting average potential, as he pulled 69.1% of his grounders vs. 63.2% over his career. He could easily hit less than .200 against the shift this year if he keeps pulling grounders at a 70% clip.

Bruce is not a plus runner (26.5 ft./sec per Statcast Sprint Speed for the second year in a row), so he won't beat out as many grounders as other players will. His average exit velocity on the ground was above average (83.3 mph), but the worst mark Bruce has produced in the Statcast Era (84.2 mph in 2016, 86.1 mph in 2015). These considerations only exasperate the problems Bruce is likely to have with the shift in the future.

Bruce also signed up for a ballpark that actively suppresses a left-handed batter's offense. Citi Field hurt lefties in both batting average (96 1B factor) and power production (92 HR factor). Cleveland enhances both for left-handed hitters (102 1B factor, 106 HR factor), but Bruce failed to capitalize on it in the couple of months he spent in Cleveland (.248/.331/.477 with seven homers in 169 PAs with Cleveland).

Finally, the Mets may be deep enough where playing time is not assured for Bruce if he ends up in an extended funk. Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes are both corner outfielders who would have to play over Bruce if everyone is healthy, and the team's pitching staff would appreciate an actual centerfielder such as Juan Lagares handling the position instead of a corner type. Initial speculation saw Bruce potentially shifting to first base, but the rumored signing of Adrian Gonzalez plus Dominic Smith's presence on the roster complicates that calculus a bit.

That leaves us with a low batting average, power-only hitter who may not produce enough home runs to make up for it. Let somebody else pay for last year's production.

Verdict: Chump

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF