Champ or Chump: Edward Cabrera

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of Miami Marlins SP Edward Cabrera in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2021. What should we expect moving forward?

With September call-ups limited to just a handful of players instead of every rebuilding club's entire 40-man roster, fantasy managers may not get as many new names on their waiver wires as they've grown accustomed to. That said, there are still some interesting names coming up. The Miami Marlins got a jump on the competition by giving Edward Cabrera his first taste of big-league action on August 26.

Cabrera enjoyed a successful debut against the Washington Nationals, tossing 6 1/3 IP with three earned runs for a quality start and a respectable 4.26 ERA. Unfortunately, his three walks allowed exceeded his two strikeouts, leading to a 5.55 xFIP that has some gamers staying away. His 5.5 overall SwStr% also leaves something to be desired, especially against a mediocre offense like Washington.

Cabrera's MiLB resume suggests that he should generate many more strikeouts than he did in his debut, and he is currently ranked as the number-two prospect in Miami's system per MLB.com. His control lapses at times though, making him a great addition for rosters that need to make something happen over the season's final month. Let's take a closer look at this 23-year-old arm.

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A Prospect's Journey

Cabrera is a top prospect today, but this wasn't always the case. All 30 big-league clubs passed on him when he became eligible to sign a professional contract out of the Dominican Republic in 2014, and he received just a $100,000 signing bonus when he inked a contract in 2015. Scouts liked his raw stuff but didn't think that he would be able to harness it consistently, making him look like a future bullpen piece at best.

All of that began to change when he succeeded at Double-A (Jacksonville) in 2019 as a 21-year-old, posting a 2.56 ERA and 3.14 xFIP over 38 2/3 IP in his first taste of the High Minors. He was certainly fortunate by "luck stats" such as his .242 BABIP and 89.9% strand rate, but it's tough to fake a 27.6 K% and 8.3 BB%. Jacksonville is also a hitter's park with a 118 HR factor from 2017-19, so we can't credit his park for his success.

Cabrera spent 2020 at Miami's alternate training site where he reportedly made great strides with his control and the bite on his breaking pitches. He probably would have made his MLB debut that year if minor shoulder soreness didn't end his season prematurely.

Cabrera returned to Double-A to begin his 2021 season, posting a 2.77 ERA and 2.97 xFIP over 26 IP for Pensacola. His luck metrics predictably regressed to a .291 BABIP and 72.1% strand rate, but his K-BB% became even better with a 34 K% and 6.2 BB%. Pensacola is also a hitter's park with a 107 HR factor and 103 BABIP factor, so Cabrera didn't get any help from his environment. The Marlins deemed his performance worthy of a promotion to Triple-A (Jacksonville), the same park that Cabrera pitched in in 2019.

Cabrera posted a solid 3.68 ERA and 4.00 xFIP over 29 1/3 IP at the higher level, and his accompanying luck metrics were fairly normal at a .316 BABIP and 79.7% strand rate. However, the rest of his peripherals took a substantial hit. His 37.2 K% was amazing, but his 14.7 BB% was a little high. His GB% also declined from 48.2% at Double-A to 39.3% at Triple-A, leading to many more homers allowed considering that his HR/FB remained steady at about 13%. The total package is certainly interesting but far from a slam dunk for our purposes.

Scout Talk

Cabrera's signature offering is a 97 mph fastball that can hit triple digits when he needs it to. It didn't impress with a 2,263 RPM spin rate during his debut, but Cabrera still uses it to generate weak ground ball contact thanks to the downhill plane generated by his 6-foot-5 frame. His changeup is his best secondary pitch while his slider is a work in progress. He also threw a curve 21.8% of the time in his first start.

Cabrera is somewhat of a polarizing figure in scouting circles as some are higher on his stuff than others. For example, the FanGraphs scouting team is relatively pessimistic about his future:

They see a big heater and a slider and change with potential, but not much in terms of immediate production. They never see above-average command either, putting more pressure on his stuff to be elite. In contrast, MLB.com is much higher on him:

The fastball is graded higher and both secondary offerings are depicted as above-average right now. With league-average control, they drop a 55 FV on him instead of the more conservative 50 the FanGraphs report indicated. Both scouting reports like Cabrera, but one is definitely more into him than the other.

Conclusions

Cabrera has RP eligibility in some formats, so go ahead and check for that if it matters in your league's settings. He is scheduled to start tonight against the New York Mets, a lineup with big names but substandard offensive results for most of the season. The Fish plan to skip Cabrera's next start thanks to an off day per Roster Resource, so we don't know how often he'll take the hill moving forward.

The combination of electric stuff and questionable control makes for a volatile fantasy player who could pay huge dividends or crash and burn. As such, he should be rostered by managers who need a September surge to make the playoffs or finish in the money. Nearly every league has somebody (or multiple somebodies) in that situation, so he should be rostered in far more than 26% of Yahoo! leagues. Of course, Cabrera is an obvious Champ in keeper and dynasty formats that care about 2022 and beyond.

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