👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria

It is time for the fantasy community to realize that we collectively suffer from an age bias. Sure, a 35-year old is unlikely to break out in the same manner a 23-year old could, but he is also less likely to turn into an overhyped bust. Youth and experience should be balanced on most fantasy rosters, with safe investments mitigating the risk presented by upside plays.

With that in mind, two veterans are profiled below. Dustin Pedroia just had a career year at age 32, while Evan Longoria turned back the clock to slam 36 bombs in 2016. Should fantasy owners invest in an encore performance? Let's find out.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Dustin Pedroia (2B, BOS) ADP: 129.3

Raise your hand if you saw a .318/.376/.449 line with 15 bombs and seven swipes coming for Boston's aging second sacker. If you're raising your hand right now, you're lying. Pedroia's four CS probably mean that the steals should not be expected to return, but everything else seems sustainable in his upcoming age 33 campaign.

Pedroia's .339 BABIP last year may not repeat, but he does project as a plus BABIP guy. His career average is .315, he is allergic to fly balls (26.8% FB% last season), and he just set a personal best IFFB% of 8.6%. Calling Fenway home is also a plus for BABIP. His BABIP luck was moderately high (a .275 BABIP on ground balls against a career rate of .267, for example), but was not too outrageous. His 24.2% LD% should revert closer to his 20.9% career rate, but otherwise his BABIP should be about the same.

Pedroia also keeps his average up by rarely striking out. Last season's 10.5% K% was nothing short of excellent, while his 4.8% SwStr% suggests that it was close to his true talent level. His eye is also a plus (26% O-Swing% last year) and plate discipline tends to age well, so the pieces are in place for Pedroia to age gracefully. Boston's potent lineup should also allow him to contribute significantly in the counting categories even if he has a down year.

Pedroia's pop is questionable, but this was also true in 2016. His 9.9% HR/FB does not seem too high to repeat, while his aforementioned 26.8% FB% is already low. Pedroia gets his power numbers by batting a bunch of times, not with any real power skill. While he is older, there is no reason to dock Pedroia's playing time projection until he actually starts missing time. Therefore, he should hit 15ish homers again. It's not exciting, but it works for fantasy.

Verdict: Champ
Evan Longoria (3B, TB) ADP: 101

Fantasy owners can always appreciate 36 dingers, especially if they come attached to a solid .273/.318/.521 triple slash line. Despite seemingly being older, Longoria is only 31 years old and has recorded at least 670 PAs four years running. Like Pedroia, there is no reason to dock his playing time projection yet.

I also see little reason to dock his power projection. Longoria's HR spike came with a sizable jump in both FB% (40.4% to 46.8%) and HR/FB (10.8% to 15.5%) relative to the year before. The FB% increase is a great indicator, and the fact that he managed to pull far more fly balls (28%) than the previous season (21.1%) helps me to trust the increased HR/FB as well.

Statcast data likes Longoria too. His 57 Barrels were tied for sixth among all MLB batters last season, indicating that he was well above average at squaring up the baseball. Last year's 11.9% SwStr% was a career worst, but is still perfectly fine if he is swinging harder to generate more power. The resulting 21% K% was still league average, so it is not as though Longoria has turned into Adam Dunn 2.0.

There is some slight batting average downside here, as batted ball luck was required to produce last season's .298 BABIP. His career rate is .301, but Longoria is shiftable (.265 vs. traditional shift, .315 without it) and enjoyed particularly productive line drives (.762 vs. .738 career). Still, a 30-bomb bat at this price is hard to argue with, especially with a lineup slot that is almost guaranteed to be favorable.

Verdict: Champ

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nikita Kucherov

Hits 130-Point Mark in Monday's Overtime Win
Jack Eichel

Collects Four Points Against Jets
Jordan Goodwin

Returns From Two-Game Absence
Jerami Grant

Tagged as Questionable for Tuesday
Grayson Allen

Questionable Tuesday
Jalen Green

Cleared for Action Tuesday
Devin Booker

Available Tuesday
Immanuel Quickley

Considered Day-to-Day
Joel Embiid

Expected to Miss Play-In Tournament
Nolan Arenado

Hits Two Homers, Drives in Five on Monday
Brandon Lowe

Stays Hot in Monday's Blowout Win Over Nationals
Kyle Schwarber

Goes Deep Twice on Monday in Win Over Cubs
Tucker Kraft

Worth Buying Low in Dynasty Leagues?
Jackson Holliday

Not Expected to Come Off Injured List This Week
Jakobi Meyers

the Jaguars Receiver to Target in Dynasty Leagues?
Tage Thompson

Reaches 40 Goals
Jayden Higgins

Is Jayden Higgins a Year 2 Breakout Candidate?
Mavrik Bourque

has a Hat Trick on Monday
Sam LaPorta

a Buy-Low Target Coming Off of Injury
D'Andre Swift

Is it Time to Trade D'Andre Swift in Dynasty Leagues?
Patrick Cantlay

Finding Form Heading to RBC Heritage
Ludvig Aberg

Continues Playing Well Heading to RBC Heritage
Ryan Mountcastle

Orioles Place Ryan Mountcastle on 60-Day Injured List With Foot Fracture
Dru Smith

Ruled Out Against Hornets on Tuesday
Pelle Larsson

Considered Questionable for Tuesday
Simone Fontecchio

Slated to Suit Up Against Hornets
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Unavailable for Tuesday
Frank Nazar

Good to Go Monday
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic to be Re-Evaluated on Tuesday
Brandon Hagel

Misses Monday's Action
Radek Faksa

Michael Bunting, Radek Faksa Rejoin Stars Lineup Monday
MIN

Wild Resting Several Key Players Monday
Jared McCann

to Miss Kraken's Last Three Games
Jonathan Quick

to Make Final NHL Appearance Monday
Leon Draisaitl

Returns to Practice
Merrill Kelly

to Make his Season Debut on Tuesday
Tatsuya Imai

Going on 15-Day Injured List With Arm Fatigue
CFB

Tramell Jones Jr. Outperforms Aaron Philo During Florida's Spring Scrimmage
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on 10-Day Injured List With Hamstring Strain
CFB

Keelon Russell Flashes in Alabama's Spring Game
Ty Gibbs

Holds off the Field for His First Cup Series Victory at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Earns His First Runner-Up Finish at Bristol
Kyle Larson

Dominant Performance At Bristol Falls Short of Victory
Tyler Reddick

Matches his Career-Best Finish at Bristol
Alex Bowman

Crashes Early at Bristol in Return From Injury
NFL

Relatively Unproven Jadarian Price Could Shine in a Featured Role
NFL

Chris Bell a High-Risk/High-Reward Gamble
DeVonta Smith

Shakeup in Philadelphia Could Lead to a DeVonta Smith Breakout
Derik Queen

has 30-Point, 22-Rebound Season Finale
Woody Marks

Likely to Settle into a Complementary Role
Ryan Nembhard

Sets Rookie Assist Record
Carlos Ulberg

Is The New Light Heavyweight Champion
Cade Cunningham

Records 14 Assists Sunday
Jiří Procházka

Jiri Prochazka Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
NFL

Should Eli Stowers Be the First Tight End Selected in Dynasty Rookie Drafts?
Milwaukee Bucks

Doc Rivers Departs as Bucks Head Coach
Azamat Murzakanov

Suffers His First Loss
Dylan Harper

Suffers Thumb Injury in Finale
Paulo Costa

Wins Back-to-Back Fights
Immanuel Quickley

Leaves Finale with Hamstring Issue
Cooper Flagg

Exits Finale with Ankle Injury
Curtis Blaydes

Drops Decision At UFC 327
Josh Hokit

Remains Unbeaten
Chris Kreider

Posts Two Assists in Overtime Loss
Marco Rossi

Gives Canucks Rare Victory
Nico Hischier

Records 30th Three-Point Game
Adam Fantilli

Nets 24th Goal of the Season
Lane Hutson

Reaches Historic Record With Two Assists Sunday
Connor McMichael

Picks Up Three Points Sunday
Nick Suzuki

Reaches 100 Points This Year
Logan Thompson

Shuts Out the Penguins
Collin Sexton

Cleared to Play Sunday
Mark Williams

Sits Season Finale
Christian Yelich

Brewers Expecting "Bad News" on Christian Yelich
Charlie McAvoy

Among Bruins Players Resting Sunday
Thomas Chabot

Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot Resting Against Devils
Quentin Johnston

Presented with Opportunity for More Volume
Travis Kelce

Worth Trading Ahead of Potential Retirement Tour
Jalen Coker

Does Jalen Coker Have Weekly Fantasy Appeal Going Forward?
DJ Moore

Is DJ Moore the Top Fantasy Receiver in Buffalo?
Derrick Henry

Still an RB1 in Fantasy Football?
Edwin Díaz

Dodgers Monitoring Edwin Diaz's Velocity
Jarquez Hunter

Can Jarquez Hunter Rebound from a Forgettable Rookie Season?
Ladd McConkey

Can Ladd McConkey Recapture Rookie-Season Magic?
Ryan Flournoy

Faces a Hard Path to Fantasy Relevance Despite Year 2 Flashes
Bryce Young

Entering Prove-it Territory
Devaughn Vele

Will Devaughn Vele See a Larger Role in Second Season with Saints?
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar A Worthy DFS Option for Bristol Lineups?
NASCAR

Could Bubba Wallace Be A Solid DFS Option for Bristol Lineups?
Sam Antonacci

Slated to Make MLB Debut on Tuesday
Jonathan Taylor

Back to High-End RB1 Tier with QB Returning?
Mickey Moniak

has Multi-Homer Game in San Diego
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Leaves Early on Saturday With Knee Tightness
Noah Schultz

White Sox to Promote Top Pitching Prospect Noah Schultz
Tyler Soderstrom

Slugs Two Home Runs in Win Over Mets
Adley Rutschman

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Ankle Inflammation
George Springer

Suffers Fractured Toe on Saturday
Gabriel Moreno

Likely Headed to Injured List
Juan Soto

Could Return for Next Homestand
Corbin Carroll

Officially Back in Saturday's Lineup
Max Muncy

Hits Three Homers, Including Walk-Off Blast
Carlos Ulberg

A Slight Underdog
Jiří Procházka

Jiri Prochazka Can Become UFC Champion Again
Paulo Costa

Makes his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Azamat Murzakanov

Looks To Remain Unbeaten
Josh Hokit

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Curtis Blaydes

A Favorite At UFC 327
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF