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Champ or Chump: Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria

It is time for the fantasy community to realize that we collectively suffer from an age bias. Sure, a 35-year old is unlikely to break out in the same manner a 23-year old could, but he is also less likely to turn into an overhyped bust. Youth and experience should be balanced on most fantasy rosters, with safe investments mitigating the risk presented by upside plays.

With that in mind, two veterans are profiled below. Dustin Pedroia just had a career year at age 32, while Evan Longoria turned back the clock to slam 36 bombs in 2016. Should fantasy owners invest in an encore performance? Let's find out.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Dustin Pedroia (2B, BOS) ADP: 129.3

Raise your hand if you saw a .318/.376/.449 line with 15 bombs and seven swipes coming for Boston's aging second sacker. If you're raising your hand right now, you're lying. Pedroia's four CS probably mean that the steals should not be expected to return, but everything else seems sustainable in his upcoming age 33 campaign.

Pedroia's .339 BABIP last year may not repeat, but he does project as a plus BABIP guy. His career average is .315, he is allergic to fly balls (26.8% FB% last season), and he just set a personal best IFFB% of 8.6%. Calling Fenway home is also a plus for BABIP. His BABIP luck was moderately high (a .275 BABIP on ground balls against a career rate of .267, for example), but was not too outrageous. His 24.2% LD% should revert closer to his 20.9% career rate, but otherwise his BABIP should be about the same.

Pedroia also keeps his average up by rarely striking out. Last season's 10.5% K% was nothing short of excellent, while his 4.8% SwStr% suggests that it was close to his true talent level. His eye is also a plus (26% O-Swing% last year) and plate discipline tends to age well, so the pieces are in place for Pedroia to age gracefully. Boston's potent lineup should also allow him to contribute significantly in the counting categories even if he has a down year.

Pedroia's pop is questionable, but this was also true in 2016. His 9.9% HR/FB does not seem too high to repeat, while his aforementioned 26.8% FB% is already low. Pedroia gets his power numbers by batting a bunch of times, not with any real power skill. While he is older, there is no reason to dock Pedroia's playing time projection until he actually starts missing time. Therefore, he should hit 15ish homers again. It's not exciting, but it works for fantasy.

Verdict: Champ
Evan Longoria (3B, TB) ADP: 101

Fantasy owners can always appreciate 36 dingers, especially if they come attached to a solid .273/.318/.521 triple slash line. Despite seemingly being older, Longoria is only 31 years old and has recorded at least 670 PAs four years running. Like Pedroia, there is no reason to dock his playing time projection yet.

I also see little reason to dock his power projection. Longoria's HR spike came with a sizable jump in both FB% (40.4% to 46.8%) and HR/FB (10.8% to 15.5%) relative to the year before. The FB% increase is a great indicator, and the fact that he managed to pull far more fly balls (28%) than the previous season (21.1%) helps me to trust the increased HR/FB as well.

Statcast data likes Longoria too. His 57 Barrels were tied for sixth among all MLB batters last season, indicating that he was well above average at squaring up the baseball. Last year's 11.9% SwStr% was a career worst, but is still perfectly fine if he is swinging harder to generate more power. The resulting 21% K% was still league average, so it is not as though Longoria has turned into Adam Dunn 2.0.

There is some slight batting average downside here, as batted ball luck was required to produce last season's .298 BABIP. His career rate is .301, but Longoria is shiftable (.265 vs. traditional shift, .315 without it) and enjoyed particularly productive line drives (.762 vs. .738 career). Still, a 30-bomb bat at this price is hard to argue with, especially with a lineup slot that is almost guaranteed to be favorable.

Verdict: Champ

 




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kevin Huerter

Active on Sunday Night
Caris LeVert

Duncan Robinson, Caris LeVert Available Sunday
Dean Wade

Max Strus Replaces Dean Wade in Starting Lineup Sunday
Luke Kornet

Iffy for Monday
Larry Nance Jr.

Won't Play Sunday
De'Aaron Fox

Listed as Questionable for Monday's Action
Jalen Williams

Officially Available for Game 1 Against Spurs
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Named MVP for Second Straight Year
Jonah Coleman

is an Intriguing Power Back to Target in Dynasty Leagues
Colt Emerson

Mariners Promoting Top Prospect Colt Emerson to Major Leagues
Darius Slayton

Lacking Long-Term Upside for Dynasty Managers
Keaton Mitchell

a Prime Dynasty Handcuff Option Entering First Season in L.A.
Jadarian Price

Looks Like the Running Back of the Future in Seattle
Isaiah Bond

Dynasty Outlook Clouded by Uncertain Role in Cleveland
James Cook III

Remains a High-End Dynasty RB1 Entering 2026
Lamar Jackson

Poised for Bounce Back Season in 2026
Bucky Irving

Expected to Be Ready for Training Camp
Kyle Williams

Deep Threat Kyle Williams Facing Uphill Battle for Playing Time
Michael Pittman Jr.

Could Receive Short-Term Value Uptick in PPR Leagues
Stefon Diggs

Chiefs, Commanders Could Make Sense for Stefon Diggs
Will Howard

Dynasty Value Dealt a Blow
Jaylen Warren

Should Benefit From Veteran QB's Return to Pittsburgh
Drew Allar

Could Continue to Hold Dynasty Value
Pat Freiermuth

Could See a Small Dynasty Bump With Veteran QB Returning
DK Metcalf

A Dynasty Sell Candidate With Veteran QB Returning?
Bones Hyland

Wants to Stay in Minnesota
Mike Conley

Hints He Will Continue Playing Next Season
Kevin Huerter

Iffy for Sunday Night
Caris LeVert

Questionable for Game 7
Duncan Robinson

Back on Injury Report Ahead of Game 7
Larry Nance Jr.

Likely Out Sunday Due to Illness
Munetaka Murakami

Fantastic First Season Continues With Two More Homers
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Dazzles With 13-Strikeout Complete Game on Saturday
Aaron Rodgers

Signs One-Year Deal With Steelers
Blake Snell

to Undergo Elbow Surgery on Tuesday
Clay Holmes

Could Miss Around Three Months
Jose Altuve

Exits After Swing
Corey Seager

Absent With Back Spasms on Saturday
Jeremy Lauzon

Misses Saturday's Practice
Mark Stone

Doesn't Practice Saturday
Josh Manson

Misses Practice, Considered Day-to-Day
Brent Burns

Day-to-Day Ahead of Conference Finals
Cale Makar

Considered Day-to-Day
Alex Lyon

Likely to Start Game 6 Against Canadiens
Owen Power

Available Saturday
Isaac TeSlaa

Can Isaac TeSlaa Carve Out a Larger Role in Detroit Going Forward?
Troy Franklin

Facing Uphill Battle for Playing Time in Denver
Trevor Lawrence

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Courtland Sutton

in Line for Reduced Role in Denver?
Trevor Story

Hits the Injured List With Groin Injury
Blake Snell

Likely to Need Elbow Surgery
Duncan Robinson

Nets 14 Points With Four Triples
Cade Cunningham

Contributes 21 Points in Game 6 Win
Jalen Duren

Bounces Back With Double-Double
Anthony Edwards

Finishes Season-Ending Loss With 24 Points
Victor Wembanyama

Tallies 19 Points in Friday's Win
De'Aaron Fox

Highly Effective in Blowout Win
Stephon Castle

Shines in Series-Clincher
Kyle Schwarber

on a Heater, Hits Two More Homers to Take Major-League Lead
Clay Holmes

Suffers Fractured Fibula on Friday Night
Blake Snell

Heads to 15-Day Injured List
Blake Snell

Scratched From Start on Friday for Undisclosed Reasons
Max Fried

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Bone Bruise
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Jeremiah Cobb Impresses New Auburn Staff
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Alberto Mendoza Very Likely to Start for Georgia Tech
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Charles Woodson Jr. Commits to Michigan
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Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
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Amasses Three Points in Crucial Victory Thursday
Juraj Slafkovsky

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Carter Hart

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Pavel Dorofeyev

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Shea Theodore

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Mitchell Marner

Scores Special Goal in Series-Clincher
Ryan Johnson

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Drew Helleson

Won't Play Thursday
Radko Gudas

Unlikely to Play Thursday
Jeremy Lauzon

Remains Out Thursday
Mark Stone

Misses Third Consecutive Game
EDM

Kris Knoblauch Fired as Oilers Head Coach
CFB

Virginia Tech Lands Commitment from Four-Star QB Peter Bourque
Byron Buxton

Scratched on Thursday With Hip Soreness
Cal Raleigh

Heading to Injured List With Oblique Strain
Francisco Alvarez

has Knee Surgery, Expected to Miss Eight Weeks
Quinn Hughes

Finishes Postseason With 15 Points
Cal Raleigh

Exits With Apparent Side Injury on Wednesday Night
Juan Soto

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NFL Veteran Tom Moore Joins Iowa Coaching Staff
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ACC, Big 12 Support 24-Team College Football Playoff
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Anthony Colandrea Looking to Elevate Nebraska Back to National Contention
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Kwazi Gilmer Set for Big Impact at Nebraska
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Trending Well Ahead of PGA Championship Despite Concerning Form
J.J. Spaun

Trending Up Ahead of PGA Championship
Adam Scott

Riding Strong Form Into PGA Championship
Patrick Reed

Looking to Make Another Run at PGA Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Looks to Build on Strong Finish at Truist Championship
Sam Burns

Must Keep Ball in Play at PGA Championship
Jordan Spieth

Looks to Complete Career Grand Slam at Aronimink
Brandt Snedeker

Not the Best Option for the PGA Championship
Rasmus Hojgaard

a Volatile Option at PGA Championship
Maverick McNealy

Seeking Better Start in Philadelphia
Harry Hall

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Aronimink
Hideki Matsuyama

Attempts to Improve Over 2025 PGA Championship
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Defend PGA Championship at Aronimink
Nicolai Hojgaard

Wants to Keep Momentum Rolling in Philadelphia
Ben Griffin

Attempting to Bounce Back After Truist Championship
CFB

Transfer Defensive Lineman Devarrick Woods Commits to Clemson
Harris English

Will Need His Putter to Thrive at Aronimink
Akshay Bhatia

Creative Flair Could Show Itself in Philadelphia
Keegan Bradley

Knows the Aronimink Golf Club Well
Si Woo Kim

Struggles at Truist Championship
Gary Woodland

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Xander Schauffele

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CFB

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Notre Dame, USC in Discussions to Resume Rivalry Series
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Ahmad Hardy's Gunshot Wound Not Viewed as Career-Threatening
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