👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria

It is time for the fantasy community to realize that we collectively suffer from an age bias. Sure, a 35-year old is unlikely to break out in the same manner a 23-year old could, but he is also less likely to turn into an overhyped bust. Youth and experience should be balanced on most fantasy rosters, with safe investments mitigating the risk presented by upside plays.

With that in mind, two veterans are profiled below. Dustin Pedroia just had a career year at age 32, while Evan Longoria turned back the clock to slam 36 bombs in 2016. Should fantasy owners invest in an encore performance? Let's find out.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Dustin Pedroia (2B, BOS) ADP: 129.3

Raise your hand if you saw a .318/.376/.449 line with 15 bombs and seven swipes coming for Boston's aging second sacker. If you're raising your hand right now, you're lying. Pedroia's four CS probably mean that the steals should not be expected to return, but everything else seems sustainable in his upcoming age 33 campaign.

Pedroia's .339 BABIP last year may not repeat, but he does project as a plus BABIP guy. His career average is .315, he is allergic to fly balls (26.8% FB% last season), and he just set a personal best IFFB% of 8.6%. Calling Fenway home is also a plus for BABIP. His BABIP luck was moderately high (a .275 BABIP on ground balls against a career rate of .267, for example), but was not too outrageous. His 24.2% LD% should revert closer to his 20.9% career rate, but otherwise his BABIP should be about the same.

Pedroia also keeps his average up by rarely striking out. Last season's 10.5% K% was nothing short of excellent, while his 4.8% SwStr% suggests that it was close to his true talent level. His eye is also a plus (26% O-Swing% last year) and plate discipline tends to age well, so the pieces are in place for Pedroia to age gracefully. Boston's potent lineup should also allow him to contribute significantly in the counting categories even if he has a down year.

Pedroia's pop is questionable, but this was also true in 2016. His 9.9% HR/FB does not seem too high to repeat, while his aforementioned 26.8% FB% is already low. Pedroia gets his power numbers by batting a bunch of times, not with any real power skill. While he is older, there is no reason to dock Pedroia's playing time projection until he actually starts missing time. Therefore, he should hit 15ish homers again. It's not exciting, but it works for fantasy.

Verdict: Champ
Evan Longoria (3B, TB) ADP: 101

Fantasy owners can always appreciate 36 dingers, especially if they come attached to a solid .273/.318/.521 triple slash line. Despite seemingly being older, Longoria is only 31 years old and has recorded at least 670 PAs four years running. Like Pedroia, there is no reason to dock his playing time projection yet.

I also see little reason to dock his power projection. Longoria's HR spike came with a sizable jump in both FB% (40.4% to 46.8%) and HR/FB (10.8% to 15.5%) relative to the year before. The FB% increase is a great indicator, and the fact that he managed to pull far more fly balls (28%) than the previous season (21.1%) helps me to trust the increased HR/FB as well.

Statcast data likes Longoria too. His 57 Barrels were tied for sixth among all MLB batters last season, indicating that he was well above average at squaring up the baseball. Last year's 11.9% SwStr% was a career worst, but is still perfectly fine if he is swinging harder to generate more power. The resulting 21% K% was still league average, so it is not as though Longoria has turned into Adam Dunn 2.0.

There is some slight batting average downside here, as batted ball luck was required to produce last season's .298 BABIP. His career rate is .301, but Longoria is shiftable (.265 vs. traditional shift, .315 without it) and enjoyed particularly productive line drives (.762 vs. .738 career). Still, a 30-bomb bat at this price is hard to argue with, especially with a lineup slot that is almost guaranteed to be favorable.

Verdict: Champ

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Emeka Egbuka

to Settle into "Z" Role in Year 2
Trey Benson

Droppable in Some Dynasty Leagues?
Cameron Ward

Looking to Make a Year 2 Leap
Omar Cooper Jr.

to Require Some Patience in Dynasty Leagues?
Jordyn Tyson

Is Jordyn Tyson the Best Rookie Receiver in Dynasty Leagues?
Nico Collins

Still in the WR1 Tier for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Admits He Wasn't Close to Returning Before Season Ended
Colston Loveland

Is Colston Loveland a Top-25 Dynasty Asset?
CFB

Isaac Brown Has All-American Upside in 2026
LeBron James

Uncertain About Future After Season-Ending Loss
Zay Flowers

Is Zay Flowers Still Undervalued Coming Off a Career Season?
Ajay Mitchell

Continues to Excel for Thunder
CFB

Nyck Harbor Heading into Breakout Year?
LeQuint Allen Jr.

a Steady Dynasty Riser During Quiet Jaguars Offseason
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Posts 35 Points in Series Clincher
CFB

Notre Dame, USC in Discussions to Resume Rivalry Series
Cade Cunningham

Struggles in Game 4 Loss
Shedeur Sanders

a Dynasty Hold Amid Quarterback Room Uncertainty
CFB

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Has Eyes on ACC Title
James Harden

Records 40th Postseason Double-Double
Quinshon Judkins

' Dynasty Stock on the Rise with Offensive Improvements
CFB

Ahmad Hardy's Gunshot Wound Not Viewed as Career-Threatening
Donovan Mitchell

Ties NBA Playoff Record With 39 Second-Half Points
Tommy Fleetwood

on Upward Trend Ahead of PGA Championship
Bryson DeChambeau

a High-Upside Play With Risk at PGA Championship
Isaiah Davis

' Dynasty Value Takes a Hit Thanks to Teammate's Extension
Kaleb Johnson

Will Kaleb Johnson Have a Bigger Role Under New Coaching Staff?
Draymond Green

Set to Stay With Warriors
Trey McBride

an Elite Fantasy TE Any Way You Slice it
Stephen Curry

Warriors Looking to Extend Stephen Curry in Offseason
Brock Purdy

All Signs Point to Bounce-Back Season for Brock Purdy in 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Bucks Listening to Offers for Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jalen McMillan

has a Path to Bigger Role, But There Will be Target Competition
OG Anunoby

Expected to Be Ready for Game 1 of East Finals
De'Aaron Fox

Listed as Questionable for Game 5
A.J. Ewing

Mets to Call Up Top Prospect A.J. Ewing
Kevin Huerter

to Remain Sidelined in Game 4
Caris LeVert

is Cleared for Game 4 on Monday
Thomas Bryant

is Available to Play in Game 4
Victor Wembanyama

Won't be Suspended Following Game 4 Ejection
Mookie Betts

is Officially Back on Monday
Nathan Eovaldi

Scratched From Monday's Start With Side Tightness
Mark Jankowski

Signs Two-Year Extension With Hurricanes
Joel Kiviranta

Cleared to Play Monday
Josh Manson

Available for Game 4 Monday
Mackenzie Blackwood

Expected to Start Monday
Jonas Brodin

Won't Play Monday
Joel Eriksson Ek

Remains Out Monday
Justin Jefferson

Dynasty Stock on the Rise With New QB in Minnesota
J.J. McCarthy

Injuries, QB Addition in Minnesota Deal Big Blow to J.J. McCarthy's Dynasty Value
Aaron Rodgers

Doesn't Meet With Steelers Over the Weekend
Chris Boswell

Steelers Agree With Kicker Chris Boswell on Four-Year Extension
Henry Bolte

Athletics to Promote Top Outfield Prospect Henry Bolte to Major Leagues
Khamzat Chimaev

Suffers his First Loss
Sean Strickland

Recaptures Middleweight Title
Tatsuro Taira

Suffers Fifth-Round TKO Loss
Harold Fannin Jr.

Offers Tantalizing Dynasty Upside Despite Uncertain Offense
Joshua Van

Defends Flyweight Title
MMA

Waldo Cortes-Acosta Drops Decision
Alexander Volkov

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Shane Van Gisbergen

Dominates Watkins Glen for First Win of 2026
Michael McDowell

Finishes Second for Best Run of the Year At Watkins Glen
Ty Gibbs

Scores New Career-Best Finish of Third at Watkins Glen
Tyler Reddick

Continues His Strong Season With Fifth-Place Run at Watkins Glen
Austin Dillon

Earns his First Top-10 Finish of 2026 at Watkins Glen
Mookie Betts

Dodgers Expect Mookie Betts to Return on Monday
CFB

Ahmad Hardy Sustains Gunshot Wound, in Stable Condition
Anthony Edwards

Powers Wolves to Game 4 Win
De'Aaron Fox

Posts 24 Points as Spurs Drop Game 4 to Wolves
Victor Wembanyama

Ejected in Game 4 Loss
VJ Edgecombe

Struggles with Shot in Game 4
Paul George

Held to Seven Points in 76ers' Game 4 Loss
Rasmus Dahlin

Records Two Points in Game 3 Loss
Tage Thompson

Comes Alive in Game 3 Against Canadiens
Cole Caufield

Ends Dry Spell Sunday
Alex Newhook

Nets Two More Goals in Sunday's Victory
Mitchell Marner

Notches Three Assists in Losing Effort
Beckett Sennecke

Extends Goal Streak to Three Games
Cutter Gauthier

Records Hat Trick of Assists in Game 4 Win
Auston Matthews

Uncertain About Future With Maple Leafs
Frederik Andersen

Enjoying Special Postseason
Josh Manson

"Close" to Returning
Joel Kiviranta

Could Return to Action Monday
Radko Gudas

a Game-Time Call Sunday
Mark Stone

Unavailable Sunday
Connor Zilisch

Will Start Fifth in his First Watkins Glen Cup Series Race
Tyler Reddick

Is A Top DFS Option for Watkins Glen Lineups
Christopher Bell

Is Likely to Bounce Back This Week at Watkins Glen
Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodon Activated for Season Debut on Sunday
William Byron

Is William Byron Playable in DFS Lineups at Watkins Glen?
Kyle Larson

May have A Positive Day at Watkins Glen
Chase Briscoe

May Compete for A Top-10 Finish at Watkins Glen
NASCAR

A.J. Allmendinger May have Another Solid Outing at Watkins Glen
Ty Gibbs

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Watkins Glen?
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain Worth Rostering for Watkins Glen Lineups?
Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Watkins Glen?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite at Watkins Glen
Chase Elliott

Is Chase Elliott a No-Brainer DFS Pick at Watkins Glen?
Chris Buescher

Qualifies 14th at Watkins Glen
Ryan Blaney

Has Upside at Watkins Glen After Signing Contract Extension
Michael McDowell

Still Searching for First Top-Five Finish at Watkins Glen
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar Too Aggressive for Road-Course Racing?
Luis Castillo

Mariners Intend to Piggyback Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller
Logan Webb

Placed on 15-Day Injured List With Knee Bursitis
Bryce Miller

is Set to Return on Wednesday
Jeff Hoffman

Could Return to Closer Role
CHI

Blackhawks Bring in Roman Kantserov for Next Season
Mason McTavish

Set to Rejoin Ducks Lineup Sunday
Taj Bradley

Hits the Injured List With Pectoral Inflammation
Kyle Bradish

has Nice Bounce-Back Performance With 10 K's
Casey Mize

Throws Bullpen on Friday, Return Not Imminent
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Optimistic About Returning Next Wednesday
Tyler Glasnow

Dodgers Put Tyler Glasnow on Injured List With Back Spasms
Blake Snell

to Make Season Debut for Dodgers on Saturday
Cole Ragans

Royals Place Cole Ragans on Injured List With Elbow Impingement
Sean Strickland

An Underdog At UFC 328
Khamzat Chimaev

Set For UFC 328 Main Event
Tatsuro Taira

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Joshua Van

Set For His First Title Defense
Alexander Volkov

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Waldo Cortes-Acosta Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Nick Lodolo

Officially Activated, Making Season Debut on Friday
CFB

Walker Lyons Could be Go-To Target for Bear Bachmeier
CFB

Ty Benefield a Potential Game-Changer for LSU Defense
CFB

Hayden Lowe Set for Significant Role Following Miami's NFL Departures
CFB

Taylor Wein in Position for Big Season on Oklahoma's Defensive Line
CFB

Rasheem Biles an Instant Impact Player for Texas
Roman Anthony

Heading for the Injured List
CFB

Sam Leavitt Expected to Be Full-Go for Fall Camp
Tarik Skubal

Could Return in 4-6 Weeks After Successful Elbow Surgery
Cole Ragans

Royals Hopeful That Cole Ragans Makes his Next Start
CFB

Brauntae Johnson the Next Star in Notre Dame's Secondary?
CFB

Ethan Barbour a Name to Know in Georgia's Tight End Room
CFB

Payton Pierce Next Up at Linebacker for Ohio State
CFB

Javin Gordon to Play Significant Role for Tennessee?
CFB

Tanook Hines Stepping into WR1 Role for USC
CFB

Rueben Owens II has "Star Potential" in Fourth Campaign
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF