X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Drew Thorpe and Mitchell Parker Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Mitchell Parker - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Are promising pitchers Drew Thorpe (White Sox) and Mitchell Parker (Nationals) fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value.

They say that pitching wins championships. That might be true, but bad pitching loses championships far more quickly.

While most leagues have only one offensive rate stat (batting average or OBP), there are two for pitching (ERA and WHIP). If your league has an innings cap and counts strikeouts, K/9 effectively becomes a third rate stat. Rate stats can be more challenging to make up ground in than counting stats, so you don't want to put yourself in a hole.

Adding a top prospect to your team like Drew Thorpe sounds appealing, but the potential downside is severe. Likewise, past success doesn't guarantee future performance. Mitchell Parker is a far dicier proposition than his ERA estimators suggest. Let's find out why!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Drew Thorpe (SP, CWS) 10% Rostered

Thorpe has a 1.35 ERA over 60 IP for Double-A (Birmingham), led the minors in strikeouts in 2023, and was included in two blockbuster trades this past offseason (Juan Soto and Dylan Cease). The 23-year-old is about as high-profile as possible for a rookie with zero big-league experience, but the fame overshadows what we should expect on the field.

The scouting report on Thorpe is underwhelming. Here's what FanGraphs and MLB.com have to say:

Both outlets love his changeup and complement his control. FanGraphs hates his fastball, which is below-average in velocity (88-92 mph) and spin. MLB.com gives it a pass because he locates it well, but that's captured in his control/command grade. His slider is similar, with FanGraphs noting below-average bite while MLB.com focuses on Thorpe's control over it. Unsurprisingly, MLB.com ranks Thorpe as the 54th best prospect to 74th at FanGraphs.

MLB-caliber control is rare on the farm, helping Thorpe compile impressive stats in small samples. He began the 2023 campaign at High-A (Hudson Valley) in the Yankees system, posting a 2.81 ERA and 3.20 xFIP in 109 innings. His 32.4% K% and 7.7% BB% were impressive, earning a promotion to Double-A (Somerset).

Thorpe only logged 30.1 IP at Somerset, but he was incredible: 1.48 ERA, 1.82 xFIP, 40% K%, and 4.5% BB%. Still, his 94.9% strand rate and .207 BABIP were obviously unsustainable, perhaps explaining why he was traded twice.

Thorpe's 1.35 ERA this year masks a 3.35 xFIP, suggesting he isn't quite as dominant as last season. His K% plummeted to 25% while his BB% jumped to 7.6%, reducing his fantasy upside. Most importantly, we have to consider how Thorpe is doing this. MiLB hitters often struggle with bendy pitches and heaters in quality locations. MLB hitters crush mediocre breaking stuff and low-velo fastballs in the zone.

Team context matters too and Thorpe's couldn't possibly be worse. The White Sox are easily the worst team in baseball, so Thorpe will struggle to earn Ws even if he's amazing. Their ballpark isn't the easiest place to pitch either, so any mistakes are likely heading over the fence.

Ultimately, the FanGraphs scouting report compares Thorpe to Jeremy Hellickson: a name you probably haven't thought about in a while and definitely don't want on your fantasy team. He's a top prospect because innings eaters have value in real life but he's a Chump for fantasy purposes despite relatively easy matchups tonight @SEA and on June 16 @ARI. Do you think the White Sox would have started his clock in a lost season if they believed he was an impact prospect?

 

Mitchell Parker (SP, WAS) 23% Rostered

At age 24, Parker came out of nowhere to post a 4-3 record and 3.47 ERA across 57 IP with the Nationals. His 3.71 xFIP and 3.56 xERA suggest he deserves his performance to date, and fantasy managers may be moving him into "must-start" territory.

Don't do that. Parker's .258 BABIP is unsustainable, and his 74.1% strand rate is elevated considering his 19.8% K%. Parker threw more strikeouts on the farm, but he was a completely different pitcher there.

Parker has just 14.1 IP at Triple-A split between 2023 and 2024, so we have to go back to Double-A (Harrisburg) in 2023 for a sense of what he was like in MiLB. He pitched to a 4.20 ERA and 3.80 xFIP over 113.2 IP with a solid 27.2% K% but 11.1% BB%. The profile reads like a guy with little idea where the ball is going, not the finesse hurler he's looked like in MLB.

Parker utilizes a four-pitch mix: fastball, curve, splitter, and sinker. His fastball gets him ahead in the count with a 60.3% Zone%, but its 5.5% SwStr% means it isn't generating any swing-and-miss. It averages 92.5 mph, which is well below average. Similarly, its 2,173 RPM spin rate is too low for "late life" but too high to reliably induce weak contact. Hitters have a .198 average and .267 slugging percentage against the pitch, but its .261 xBA and .424 xSLG suggest it isn't that effective.

Discrepancies like this can prove sustainable if an arm has reliable defensive support, but Parker doesn't. The Nationals rank 26th with -15 Outs Above Average (OAA), but Parker has received one OAA on the mound thus far. If the Nationals defense struggles as much behind Parker as their other pitchers, he may find it difficult to actualize his expected stats moving forward. Overperforming them would be virtually impossible.

His curve is effectively a second fastball with a 55% Zone% and 10.9% SwStr%. His splitter offers strikeout potential with a 20.8% SwStr% and 45.4% chase rate, but its 27.5% Zone% means that his minor league walks would return if he tried to throw it more frequently. His slider has flashed potential with a 21% SwStr%, 53.2% Zone%, and 37.9% chase rate, but he's only thrown it 62 times all season.

Washington isn't as bad as the White Sox, but they still project as one of the league's weaker clubs. Nationals Park ties for fifth with a 102 park factor from 2022-2024 (discounting London Stadium), so his stadium won't help either.

Parker has favorable matchups tonight @DET and on June 16 vs. MIA, so he's streamable in fantasy over the short term. However, this Chump is more risky than many managers realize and shouldn't be used against high-quality opponents.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Jac Caglianone

Roams Right Field At Double-A On Thursday
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
Sebastian Walcott

Smacks Second Home Run Of 2025
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Kenley Jansen

Records His Sixth Save Of The Season
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Miguel Vargas

Homers Against The Twins On Thursday
Hunter Goodman

Delivers In Game 1 On Thursday With Two Hits
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Christopher Morel

Home Run Seals Victory For Rays
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Zach Neto

Hits Go-Ahead Home Run On Thursday
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Tallies Three Hits In Win Against Arizona
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Pete Fairbanks

Picks Up Fourth Save On Thursday
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Picks Up Save On Thursday
Corbin Burnes

Picks Up Eight Strikeouts In Thursday's Start
MacKenzie Gore

Strikes Out Eight In Loss On Thursday
Cade Povich

Picks Up Win On Thursday
Bobby Witt Jr.

Scores Three Runs, Steals A Base On Thursday
Alex Bregman

Homers In Loss To Seattle
Mike Yastrzemski

Homers, Drives In Two On Thursday
Salvador Perez

Notches Four Doubles, Four RBI In Thursday's Doubleheader
Jordan Beck

Homers Three Times On Thursday
Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Dalton Rushing

Homers In Four-Hit Game
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Max Muncy

With A Pair Of Doubles Back At Triple-A
Michael Lorenzen

Tosses Quality Start
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams Taken By Lions At No. 28 Overall
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Go With Malaki Starks At No. 27 Overall In NFL Draft
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Takes Donovan Jackson No. 24 Overall
NFL

Rams Trade The 26th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Falcons
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Trade Back Into First Round To Draft James Pearce Jr. At No. 26 Overall

Matthew Golden Selected No. 23 Overall By Green Bay
NFL

Texans Trade The 25th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Giants

Omarion Hampton Taken No. 22 Overall By Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Selects Derrick Harmon At No. 21 Overall
Denver Broncos

Broncos Build Secondary By Selecting Jahdae Barron At No. 20

Buccaneers Add Emeka Egbuka At No. 19
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF