Champ or Chump: Drew Thorpe and Mitchell Parker Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

June 11, 2024

Are promising pitchers Drew Thorpe (White Sox) and Mitchell Parker (Nationals) fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value.

They say that pitching wins championships. That might be true, but bad pitching loses championships far more quickly.

While most leagues have only one offensive rate stat (batting average or OBP), there are two for pitching (ERA and WHIP). If your league has an innings cap and counts strikeouts, K/9 effectively becomes a third rate stat. Rate stats can be more challenging to make up ground in than counting stats, so you don't want to put yourself in a hole.

Adding a top prospect to your team like Drew Thorpe sounds appealing, but the potential downside is severe. Likewise, past success doesn't guarantee future performance. Mitchell Parker is a far dicier proposition than his ERA estimators suggest. Let's find out why!

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Drew Thorpe (SP, CWS) 10% Rostered

Thorpe has a 1.35 ERA over 60 IP for Double-A (Birmingham), led the minors in strikeouts in 2023, and was included in two blockbuster trades this past offseason (Juan Soto and Dylan Cease). The 23-year-old is about as high-profile as possible for a rookie with zero big-league experience, but the fame overshadows what we should expect on the field.

The scouting report on Thorpe is underwhelming. Here's what FanGraphs and MLB.com have to say:

Both outlets love his changeup and complement his control. FanGraphs hates his fastball, which is below-average in velocity (88-92 mph) and spin. MLB.com gives it a pass because he locates it well, but that's captured in his control/command grade. His slider is similar, with FanGraphs noting below-average bite while MLB.com focuses on Thorpe's control over it. Unsurprisingly, MLB.com ranks Thorpe as the 54th best prospect to 74th at FanGraphs.

MLB-caliber control is rare on the farm, helping Thorpe compile impressive stats in small samples. He began the 2023 campaign at High-A (Hudson Valley) in the Yankees system, posting a 2.81 ERA and 3.20 xFIP in 109 innings. His 32.4% K% and 7.7% BB% were impressive, earning a promotion to Double-A (Somerset).

Thorpe only logged 30.1 IP at Somerset, but he was incredible: 1.48 ERA, 1.82 xFIP, 40% K%, and 4.5% BB%. Still, his 94.9% strand rate and .207 BABIP were obviously unsustainable, perhaps explaining why he was traded twice.

Thorpe's 1.35 ERA this year masks a 3.35 xFIP, suggesting he isn't quite as dominant as last season. His K% plummeted to 25% while his BB% jumped to 7.6%, reducing his fantasy upside. Most importantly, we have to consider how Thorpe is doing this. MiLB hitters often struggle with bendy pitches and heaters in quality locations. MLB hitters crush mediocre breaking stuff and low-velo fastballs in the zone.

Team context matters too and Thorpe's couldn't possibly be worse. The White Sox are easily the worst team in baseball, so Thorpe will struggle to earn Ws even if he's amazing. Their ballpark isn't the easiest place to pitch either, so any mistakes are likely heading over the fence.

Ultimately, the FanGraphs scouting report compares Thorpe to Jeremy Hellickson: a name you probably haven't thought about in a while and definitely don't want on your fantasy team. He's a top prospect because innings eaters have value in real life but he's a Chump for fantasy purposes despite relatively easy matchups tonight @SEA and on June 16 @ARI. Do you think the White Sox would have started his clock in a lost season if they believed he was an impact prospect?

Mitchell Parker (SP, WAS) 23% Rostered

At age 24, Parker came out of nowhere to post a 4-3 record and 3.47 ERA across 57 IP with the Nationals. His 3.71 xFIP and 3.56 xERA suggest he deserves his performance to date, and fantasy managers may be moving him into "must-start" territory.

Don't do that. Parker's .258 BABIP is unsustainable, and his 74.1% strand rate is elevated considering his 19.8% K%. Parker threw more strikeouts on the farm, but he was a completely different pitcher there.

Parker has just 14.1 IP at Triple-A split between 2023 and 2024, so we have to go back to Double-A (Harrisburg) in 2023 for a sense of what he was like in MiLB. He pitched to a 4.20 ERA and 3.80 xFIP over 113.2 IP with a solid 27.2% K% but 11.1% BB%. The profile reads like a guy with little idea where the ball is going, not the finesse hurler he's looked like in MLB.

Parker utilizes a four-pitch mix: fastball, curve, splitter, and sinker. His fastball gets him ahead in the count with a 60.3% Zone%, but its 5.5% SwStr% means it isn't generating any swing-and-miss. It averages 92.5 mph, which is well below average. Similarly, its 2,173 RPM spin rate is too low for "late life" but too high to reliably induce weak contact. Hitters have a .198 average and .267 slugging percentage against the pitch, but its .261 xBA and .424 xSLG suggest it isn't that effective.

Discrepancies like this can prove sustainable if an arm has reliable defensive support, but Parker doesn't. The Nationals rank 26th with -15 Outs Above Average (OAA), but Parker has received one OAA on the mound thus far. If the Nationals defense struggles as much behind Parker as their other pitchers, he may find it difficult to actualize his expected stats moving forward. Overperforming them would be virtually impossible.

His curve is effectively a second fastball with a 55% Zone% and 10.9% SwStr%. His splitter offers strikeout potential with a 20.8% SwStr% and 45.4% chase rate, but its 27.5% Zone% means that his minor league walks would return if he tried to throw it more frequently. His slider has flashed potential with a 21% SwStr%, 53.2% Zone%, and 37.9% chase rate, but he's only thrown it 62 times all season.

Washington isn't as bad as the White Sox, but they still project as one of the league's weaker clubs. Nationals Park ties for fifth with a 102 park factor from 2022-2024 (discounting London Stadium), so his stadium won't help either.

Parker has favorable matchups tonight @DET and on June 16 vs. MIA, so he's streamable in fantasy over the short term. However, this Chump is more risky than many managers realize and shouldn't be used against high-quality opponents.

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