Champ or Chump: David Fry and Matt Waldron Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

May 28, 2024

Are unheralded players David Fry and Matt Waldron fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value.

Managing your fantasy baseball rosters can feel like work. You double-check your lineups, research waiver options, and watch your team daily. It's also easy to feel down if your teams aren't performing as expected. Wasn't fantasy baseball supposed to be fun?

One solution to this is rostering "fun" players you'd like to follow anyway, but doing so may compromise your roster's competitiveness. Winning is fun, so you don't want to hinder your chances for a chuckle in late May.

The ideal solution is fun players who could help you win a fantasy title. David Fry is a 28-year-old catcher and utility man putting up outstanding numbers. Matt Waldron is a 27-year-old knuckleball guy with legitimate fantasy upside. Let's learn more about them!

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David Fry (C/OF/1B, CLE) - 71% Rostered

Fry was never much of a prospect. Milwaukee selected him 215th overall in 2018 and signed him for a $10,000 bonus. He never appeared on top prospect lists and was the player to be named later in a 2022 trade headlined by J.C. Mejia. Fantasy managers are understandably shocked by his .344/.487/.600 line with six homers and three steals over 119 PAs. His .410 BABIP isn't real, so you might be tempted to dismiss him.

Fry wasn't on the fantasy radar, but his MiLB history suggests he has legitimate skills. He first reached Double-A with Biloxi in the Milwaukee organization, slashing .248/.341/.447 with 11 homers and a steal in 299 PAs. He demonstrated strong plate discipline with a 10.4% BB% and 23.7% K%, and his .300 BABIP was luck-neutral. Throw in a 20 HR pace and catcher eligibility, and there's potential for fantasy viability.

The performance earned Fry a promotion to Triple-A (Nashville), where he hit .288/.383/.462 with a homer in 60 PAs. It was a tiny sample with a 28.3% K% and .412 BABIP, but his 11.7% BB% suggested strong plate discipline. Cleveland acquired Fry and sent him to Triple-A (Columbus) for 2022.

He spent the entire season there, logging 479 PAs and slashing .256/.329/.450 with 17 HR and two steals. His plate discipline improved with an 8.1% BB% and 19.2% K%, and his .285 BABIP suggested some batting average upside. Fry returned to Columbus in 2023 and excelled, hitting .317/.402/.545 with four homers and two steals in 117 PAs. Fry's .364 BABIP probably wasn't sustainable, but his 9.4% BB% and 17.9% K% should be.

Fry finished 2023 in Cleveland, hitting .238/.319/.416 with four homers and two steals in 113 PAs. He looked overmatched with a 43% chase rate and 14.4% SwStr% contributing to a 26.5% K%, but that wasn't the guy he was on the farm.

This year, he's showing the plate discipline that made him a successful minor leaguer. His 24.2% chase rate ranks in the 100th percentile, making his eye-popping 18.5% BB% believable. He's also improved his SwStr% to 9.9%, enabling Fry to post a 21% K%.

Fry's xBA of .256 suggests significant batting average regression is likely, but remember that regression means we should project Fry for an average in the .250 range moving forward. We should not expect Fry to hit .190 over his next 120 PAs to "even out" his hot start. He's also maintained his 20-25 HR pace from the minors, and his perfect success rate on steal attempts should help him compile a few more bags.

A .250 hitter with 20 HR plays as a fantasy catcher, especially since Cleveland hits him fourth or fifth when he's in the lineup. He also has 10 games in the outfield, eight at first base, and three at third base, so you can plug him into other roster spots if needed.

Cleveland doesn't always start Fry, but catchers never play every day. He's viable in all two-catcher formats, leagues with daily lineup changes, and OBP formats (including point leagues). He lacks name recognition and prospect pedigree, but Fry is a Champ.

Matt Waldron (SP/RP, SD) - 7% Rostered

On the surface, Waldron's 2024 hasn't been great. He has a 2-5 record with a 4.86 ERA across 50 IP. His ERA estimators are better (3.83 xERA, 4.03 xFIP), but his 23.5% K% and 8.6% BB% don't scream fantasy viability. However, Waldron's surface-level stats don't tell an accurate story.

Waldron is a knuckleball guy. The initial scouting report said Waldron used his knuckler as a secondary pitch to complement a traditional arsenal, but it's now his most-thrown pitch.

Waldron features a five-pitch mix. His knuckleball has a 49.7% Zone% and 12.5% SwStr%, making it effectively a plus fastball. His heater plays well off the knuckler with a 9.9% SwStr% and 57.1% Zone%. His sweeping slider steals strikes with a 56.5% Zone%, but its 3.7% SwStr% and 10% chase rate don't offer strikeout upside. Waldron's sinker is bad with a 3.5% SwStr% and .310 BAA, while his cutter has strikeout potential (9.4% SwStr%, 52.8% Zone%) but gets hit hard (.444 average against).

Knucklers have always been the exception to the DIPS theory metrics, such as FIP. Baseball Savant isn't even coded to accommodate knuckleballs. If you've ever looked at a pitcher's Statcast pitch arsenal, you've probably seen something like this:

The ball in the top right corner spins to give readers a visualization of what the pitch looks like. You're out of luck if you want Waldron's knuckleball though:

It doesn't even attempt to show the pitch's spin, instead replacing the ball with the MLB logo.

The goal of the knuckleball is to induce weak contact and low BABIPs. Waldron's .329 BABIP suggests he's failing, but his xBA suggests otherwise. Hitters have a .240 average against his knuckler versus a .218 xBA. Similarly, hitters have a .280 average against his sweeping slider but an xBA of just .191. San Diego ranks 12th in MLB with four OAA as a team, so poor defense doesn't explain the discrepancy. Waldron's luck should even out.

This becomes especially interesting if we look at Waldron's monthly splits. In April, he pitched to a 4.35 ERA in 31 IP with a 19.7% K%, 7.3% BB%, and .292 BABIP. In May, a 5.68 ERA and .404 BABIP over 19 IP masked a 29.8% K% and 10.7% BB%. Waldron is figuring out how to knuckle his way to the dominance fantasy managers crave.

Waldron is still learning his craft, so he's best streamed in fantasy. His home start tonight against the Marlins is a favorable matchup, and his next start on June 3 in Los Angeles against the Angels looks good too. Now is a perfect time to add this Champ to your roster.

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