RADIO
Rick Lucks previews the fantasy prospects of Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.
Five-tool players are among the most sought after commodities in all of fantasy baseball. This is a great thing if they are performing the way you expected them to, but most owners give ex-five tool guys a much longer leash than anyone else on their roster. They end up dropping points in the standings as a result, swearing that they will never roster that guy again to get him back.
Real MLB players couldn't care less about your fantasy team, so any effort at retribution is misguided. Instead, ex-five tool guys should be considered based on their skills today. For example, both Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen used to be pieces to build a fantasy team around. They're not those players anymore, but that doesn't mean that you should avoid them entirely.
Of course, it's also important to bow out of the bidding if it starts getting out of hand. Here is a realistic look at what each player will produce in 2018.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Curtis Granderson (OF, TOR)
Granderson's .212 batting average was low enough to sink your average category last year, but his .323 OBP and 26 long balls still provided some value. It would be hard to expect another BABIP as low as Granderson's .228 last year, but nothing close to a full rebound to his career .292 should be expected.
Multiple factors contributed to Granderson's horrific BABIP last year. He's extremely prone to the shift, facing it in 268 of 303 possible PAs in 2017. His 65.4% Pull% on ground balls and .235 batting average against it suggest that he will continue to be shifted virtually every time up, preventing his .206 BABIP on grounders from approaching his .226 career mark.
Granderson is also not the athlete he used to be, as his Statcast Sprint Speed declined from a scorching 27.7 ft./sec in 2015 to a league average 27.o in 2016 before bottoming out last year at 26.6. He's now below average in footspeed, preventing him from beating out hits he used to be able to while simultaneously putting an end to his running game (6-for-8 in SB attempts last year).
Swapping out Citi Field and Dodger Stadium for the Rogers Centre could also boost Granderson's average slightly, as the former two ballparks each suppressed left-handed singles (Park factors of 96 and 98, respectively) while Toronto offered a little boost (103).
Granderson hit fewer line drives last season than he typically does (18.6% LD% vs. 21% career), giving him room for positive regression this year. His FB% (42.1% in 2016 to 48.8%) and IFFB% (4.5% to 13.8%) both surged to unprecedented heights that seem likely to normalize in the coming year as well. He'll still have a fly ball-profile with maybe more pop-ups than you'd like to see, but it'll at least be better than last year.
His airborne contact quality was actually better last season, suggesting that Granderson remains a viable source of power numbers. He set a Statcast Era best with a 10.9% rate of Brls/BBE, besting his 2016 (7.1%) and 2015 (8.3%) marks substantially. His 93 mph average airborne exit velocity also reversed 2016's decline in that area (91.7 mph), nearly reaching his 2015 mark of 93.2 mph. Finally, he pulled more of his fly balls (36.3%) than he has over his career (31.2%).
Granderson's ballpark switch could also help pad his HR totals. Citi Field suppresses left-handed power (92 HR Factor), while the Dodgers didn't deploy him consistently enough to take advantage of Dodger Stadium's 106 HR factor for LHB. Toronto only had a 95 HR factor for LHB last year, but it was 110 as recently as 2016. Rogers Centre is known for being power-friendly, so the park switch should be viewed as a strong positive.
Roster Resource also has Granderson penciled into the leadoff slot, a role Granderson may be well suited for given his 13.5% BB% and 21.6% chase rate. He also posted a career best 8.6% SwStr%, but still ran a 23.3% K% by virtue of being entirely too patient at the plate (38.2% Swing% last year). Toronto's offseason is probably far from done, so current lineup projections should be viewed skeptically. Still, a favorable spot in Toronto's offense may be enough to justify Granderson's cost on its own.
Granderson is best utilized in daily formats because he has never quite solved left-handed pitching (.223/296/.401 career, .202/.274/.394 last year). Obviously, he's also better in formats replacing batting average with OBP. If you use him as the long side of a platoon in the right format, the 37-year old has profit potential in fantasy.
Verdict: Champ
Andrew McCutchen (OF, SF)
McCutchen's .279/.363/.486 triple slash line with 28 HR and 11 SB (five CS) in 2017 was a nice bounce back after 2016's disappointing .256/.336/.430 with 24 HR and more CS (seven) than steals (six). However, he has become the latest Giants reclamation project, as the team continues to collect aging offensive players who will struggle in the league's worst offensive park.
To be fair, Pittsburgh's 90 HR factor for RHB last season worked against McCutchen, and he still compiled a 16.4% HR/FB (13.1% career). San Francisco is even tougher (86 HR Factor), and both the outfielder's average airborne exit velocity (93.4 mph vs. 94 in 2016 and 95.1 in 2015) and rate of Brls/BBE (7.7% vs. 8.5% and 9.5%) trended in the wrong direction last year despite surface success. He pulled slightly fewer fly balls as well (21.1% vs. 22.7% career), making a significantly lower HR/FB in 2018 the safest projection.
McCutchen's .305 BABIP was fine, but his career mark of .328 could go a long way toward making up for reduced power numbers. Sadly, last season's .231 BABIP on ground balls is probably more realistic than his career mark of .291. His average exit velocity on grounders nosedived last year (83.6 mph vs. 86.5 in 2016 and 85.6 in 2015), while his Statcast Sprint Speed held constant (28.5 ft./sec vs. 28.4 in 2016). Pittsburgh and San Francisco posted identical 1B Park factors of 103 last year, so the ballpark switch should not have an impact on his average this year.
McCutchen had a lower FB% (41.7% in 2016, 37.4% last year) and IFFB% (12.6% to 8.2%) last year, and his LD% was normal (21.9% LD% vs. 21.2% career). These indicators should have allowed McCutchen to best his career BABIP, so the fact that he didn't is sobering for his future prospects. His SB success rate also left something to be desired at roughly 69 percent, suggesting that he lost some acceleration that Sprint Speed does not measure.
McCutchen still has a reasonable floor thanks to excellent plate discipline metrics. His 11.2% BB% last year was rooted in a strong 25% chase rate, making him a safe bet for OBP in formats that care. His 17.8% K% was also supported by a SwStr% of 8.7%, McCutchen's best since 2011. Favorable K% rates are becoming increasingly difficult to find, giving McCutchen batting average upside that many of his brethren lack.
Still, it seems likely that someone in your league will be willing to pay for prime McCutchen on a pennant contender, and neither part of that scenario seems very likely. The prudent move is to pass.
Verdict: Chump
