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Are top prospects Connor Norby (Miami 2B/3B) and Dylan Crews (Washington OF) fantasy breakouts, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.
Why do people love lists so much? MLB.com ranks the top 30 prospects in every organization plus an overall top 100, making it sound like everyone is a huge prospect. Most prospect lists are also agnostic of time, making it difficult to know if someone is expected to be great right away or struggle for a few years.
The recent Connor Norby trade illustrates this. Norby was ranked as the No.3 prospect in Miami's system post-trade, suggesting a solid prospect pedigree. However, FanGraphs ranked him No.19 in Baltimore's system before the season, suggesting fantasy irrelevance. Baltimore's system is better than Miami's, but most people don't think about that when browsing prospect lists.
Dylan Crews is a top prospect by any definition, ranking No.3 in all of baseball per MLB. What can we expect following his big league debut last night? Here is a closer look at the immediate fantasy prospects of Norby and Crews.
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Connor Norby (2B/3B, MIA) 15% Rostered
Norby is hitting a lopsided .268/.281/.571 with four homers and a steal in 57 PAs between the Orioles and Marlins this season. He's looked better as a Fish than an O, putting him back on the fantasy radar. He probably shouldn't be, though.
Norby's scouting report isn't super impressive:
Norby combines a weak hit tool with below-average power and awful defense, leaving scouts little to get excited about. Any interest in him is predicated on his MiLB performance.
The now 24-year-old cracked the High Minors with Double-A (Bowie) in 2022, slashing .298/.389/.571 with 17 HR and 10 SB in 633 PAs. He flashed strong plate discipline with an 11.5% BB% and 19.9% K% backed by an 11.6% SwStr%.
Norby also demonstrated fantasy juice, combining a decent 36.8% FB% with a 23.9% HR/FB to produce solid power numbers. Additionally, Norby went 10-for-12 on steal attempts for a success rate of 83%.
The performance earned him a 42-PA taste of Triple-A (Norfolk). Norby returned to Norfolk in 2023 and hit .290/.359/.483 with 21 HR and 10 steals across 633 PAs. Nearly all of his skills regressed.
First, Norby's plate discipline went from good to average. He posted a 9.0% BB% against a 21.6% K% backed by a 34.9% chase rate and 11.5% SwStr%. His FB% fell to 33.6%, and his HR/FB declined to 14.7% despite playing in homer-happy Triple-A. As such, the power he had in Double-A dissipated. He was even caught stealing four times, reducing his success rate to 71%.
Norby repeated Triple-A in 2024, slashing .292/.389/.519 with 16 HR and 13 SB in 375 PAs for Norfolk. His K% jumped to 27.7%, but his underlying 13.2% SwStr% wasn't that much worse while his 31.2% chase rate was a slight improvement. His power indicators also improved with a 36.7% FB% and 20% HR/FB. Norby went 13-for-16 on SB attempts for an 81% success rate.
His MLB debut wasn't great, and he played for Triple-A (Jacksonville) after the trade to Miami. He hit .271/.338/.373 with a homer in 65 PAs, and all his peripherals were horrific. His 29.2% K% was backed by a 43% chase rate and 18.4% SwStr%. His FB% fell to 30%, so the increased swing-and-miss didn't translate to more power. Norby was caught stealing on his only SB attempt.
Norby's peripherals at the MLB level are similar to what he did as a Marlins farmhand. He has a 29.8% K% and a 1.8% BB% backed by a 38.6% chase rate and 17.1% SwStr%. His swing decisions are terrible, but his 76.5% Z-Contact% suggests he's vulnerable inside the zone too.
That would be fine if he had high-quality contact, but he doesn't. Norby's average airborne exit velocity is just 91.6 mph, roughly two ticks below average. His 15.4% rate of Brls/BBE is good but a small sample fluke considering his total lack of exit velocity. Similarly, Norby's .212 xBA and .423 xSLG don't inspire confidence.
The Marlins have a weak lineup in a pitcher's park, so Norby's role lacks inherent fantasy value. This Chump belongs on waivers.
Dylan Crews (OF, WAS) 32% Rostered
Crews was widely regarded as a better prospect than Paul Skenes before the 2023 draft. His FanGraphs scouting report provides plenty of reason for optimism:
A workable hit tool with plus power and wheels will always entice fantasy managers. His MLB.com scouting report is even better:
This scouting report indicates a true five-tool talent. Normally, a 22-year-old with elite physical tools and prospect pedigree would either set the minors on fire or fail to produce and leave fans wondering what all the hype is about. Crews did neither.
Crews got a brief taste of Double-A (Harrisburg) in 2023 and struggled, slashing .208/.318/.278 with no homers and three steals in 85 PAs. The biggest issue was his .278 BABIP, fueled in part by a 15.1% LD% that likely would've increased over a larger sample.
Otherwise, Crews had good plate discipline with a 9.4% BB% and 22.4% K%, though his 13.1% SwStr% was a little high. Crews neither excelled nor struggled with loft, posting a 37.7% FB%. He was also caught stealing three times for a disappointing success rate of 50%.
Crews returned to Harrisburg to begin 2024 and fared much better: .274/.343/.446 with five homers and 15 steals across 201 PAs. His BABIP spiked to .343 thanks to a 27.2% LD%, which tells you how sticky LD% is in small samples.
His 36% FB% was down somewhat, but the lost flies turned into liners. His plate discipline was similar with a 7.6% BB%, 23.7% K%, and 12.9% SwStr%, and he was much more efficient on the bases with an 83% success rate (15-for-18).
The performance earned Crews a shot at Triple-A (Rochester), where he hit .265/.340/.455 with eight homers and 10 steals over 238 PAs. His plate discipline improved substantially with an 8.4% BB%, 17.6% K%, 10.8% SwStr%, and 31.2% chase rate.
Crews's FB% fell to 32.1% and his LD% normalized to 21.4%, hurting his immediate power prospects. His 14.8% HR/FB was disappointing considering how homer-happy Triple-A is as well.
On the bright side, Crews was again successful on 83% of his SB attempts (10-for-12). His combination of a low-fly profile, plus speed, and average LD% would also be expected to produce a better BABIP than his .294.
Overall, Crews has been fine on the farm. His production and peripherals are neither outstanding nor terrible, so decent numbers are the best projection. The upside for more is real, so let's call him a Champ for managers who need to make things happen over the final month.
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