Champ or Chump: Bryan Reynolds and Cavan Biggio

May 30, 2019

Rick Lucks examines the fantasy baseball viability of top prospects Bryan Reynolds (Pirates) and Cavan Biggio (Blue Jays) for fantasy baseball owners in redraft leagues in 2019. Are they worthwhile fantasy assets?

Prospects continue to be called up faster than we can look at them, so we have two more on the docket this week. Bryan Reynolds was a second-round pick by the San Francisco Giants in 2016, but nobody seems to have noticed him raking for the Pirates. Cavan Biggio has big league bloodlines, and his MiLB profile includes some interesting data points for the fantasy owner looking for second base depth.

Unlike other top prospects, both of these guys have ownership rates below 30%. If you need to find a winner off of waivers, either of these 24-year-olds could be a good addition to your squad.

Keep in mind, our Champ / Chump conclusions are based on whether we think a player will outperform their expectations. For example, a pitcher we view as "Tier 2" can be a Champ if they're seen as a Tier 3 pitcher, or they could be a Chump if they're perceived as a Tier 1 pitcher. All ownership rates are from Yahoo! leagues unless otherwise noted. Let's take a closer look at Reynolds and Biggio, shall we?

Bryan Reynolds (OF, PIT)

14% Owned

You would probably be surprised to learn that Reynolds is slashing .327/.381/.577 with five long balls over 113 big league PAs this season, as his ownership rate would probably be way higher if that was common knowledge. He might not have as much power as he's flashed thus far, but this profile should produce excellent batting average and OBP numbers for the rest of the reason.

Since Reynolds has a decent MLB sample size, let's start there. His plate discipline has looked pretty good (8 BB%, 22.1 K%), giving him a reasonable number of batted balls for his .392 BABIP to wreck havoc on opposing pitchers. A lot of people probably look at that BABIP and decide that he's a fluke, but his peripherals support a strong BABIP.

Reynolds isn't hitting a lot of fly balls (32.9 FB%), a proven method of sustaining an elevated BABIP. His .297 BABIP on ground balls is also supported by above average Statcast Sprint speed (27.5 ft./sec Statcast Sprint) and an average exit velocity of 92 mph on ground balls. To put the latter number into perspective, Reynolds's exit velocity on grounders ranks fourth in all of MLB (minimum 50 batted ball events). He's being shifted fairly regularly (32 of 74 opportunities), but it isn't working (.375 average vs. shift) and isn't going to since Reynolds is only pulling 46% of his ground balls.

It's tough to expect power from Reynolds given his low fly ball rate, but his 94.6 mph average airborne exit velocity is above average while his 7.6% rate of Brls/BBE is roughly average. If he tried to start lifting the ball more, he probably could add more homers (at the expense of average) to his profile.

That's a relatively recent development, as Reynolds didn't flash any power on the farm until this season. He first reached Double-A in 2018, slashing .302/.381/.438 with seven homers and four steals (against four CS) in 383 PAs. He had no problem elevating the ball (42% fly ball rate), but did little with fly balls (6.5% HR/FB). He walked a lot (11.2 BB%) without striking out too often (19.1 K%), letting a .362 BABIP carry him to a successful campaign.

Unfortunately, a broken hamate bone cost Reynolds a lot of valuable development time last season, delaying his Triple-A Indianapolis debut until 2019. He torched his opponents, slashing .367/.446/.735 with five homers and three steals (two CS) in just 57 PAs. He walked even more often (12.3 BB%) while his strikeouts held steady (19.3 K%), suggesting an advanced plate approach. Better yet, his FB% increased to 45.9 percent while his HR/FB soared to 29.4%. The new ball at Triple-A has offense up everywhere, but Indianapolis is traditionally a pitcher's park and isn't in the Pacific Coast League.

Scouts didn't see this coming at all. FanGraphs graded Reynolds's hit tool as a 45 (future 50) on the 20-80 scouting scale, a number that seems pretty low considering that Reynolds has hit at every level since patrolling the outfield for Vanderbilt in college. Baseball Savant gives him a slightly above average 55, which still may not do him justice considering his MiLB track record. Both sites rank his power as a 45, but whatever mechanical changes he made this year may render that number moot as well.

Reynolds typically hits 5th, but sometimes finds his way to the second spot of Pittsburgh's order for considerable counting stat potential. He hits too many grounders to count on his slugging percentage continuing (.453 xSLG vs. .577 actual slugging percentage), but he should be a beast in batting average and OBP in an era where that's increasingly hard to find. He should be owned in a lot more leagues.

Verdict: Champ (based on sustainable production that warrants universal fantasy ownership)

Cavan Biggio (2B, TOR)

26% Owned

Biggio has a major league homer to his credit, but his 35.7 K% over 14 big league PAs may have some owners thinking that he's hopelessly overmatched. Like Reynolds, a lot of scouts don't love Biggio. Also like Reynolds, it looks like Biggio might have skills that translate to the fantasy realm nicely.

Biggio first reached the high minors in 2018, slashing .252/.388/.499 with 26 HR and 20 steals (eight CS) over 563 PAs. As you can tell from the discrepancy between his batting average and OBP, he walked a lot (17.8 BB%). He also struck out too much (26.3 K%), though fantasy owners will accept that as part of a potent power-speed package. He was great at lifting the ball (49.5 FB%) and getting it out of the park (17.1% HR/FB), though his .307 BABIP may have been a little high for someone with such an extreme fly ball rate.

The Blue Jays decided that Biggio deserved a crack at Triple-A Buffalo to start 2019, and he was even better. In 173 PAs, Biggio slashed .307/.445/.504 with six homers and five steals (one CS). He walked (19.7 BB%) more often than he struck out (16.2 K%), generally a good indication of mastery of a particular level. His FB% (44) and HR/FB (12.5%) both regressed slightly, but a significant spike in LD% (25.7 vs. 17.3 at Double-A) led a BABIP spike to .346. With a below average and above average LD% on his resume, we should probably assume an average rate going forward.

Scouts don't love Biggio's raw wheels (45 per both FanGraphs and Baseball Savant), but note that he's an intelligent base runner who can effectively pick his spots. That should make him a lock for 15-20 bags per full season in his prime. Baseball Savant's scouting report also notes that Biggio dropped his hands to lift the ball more in 2018, increasing his FB% and tapping into raw power at the expense of more strikeouts and a pull-centric approach. Fantasy owners will make that trade every time

More problematically, Baseball Savant grades Biggio's hit tool at 45 while FanGraphs only sees a 40. Baseball Savant assigns him a 55 power tool, but FanGraphs sees a below average 45 there as well. Whispers that he was a future utility guy led the Jays to use him at 1B, 2B, 3B, and the outfield over his minor league career,  giving him positional versatility in his efforts to stay in the lineup.

Outstanding Triple-A results aside, Biggio's batting average could be a significant risk moving forward. That said, he walks enough to salvage his real-world value and gains a lot of value in OBP formats. It's tough to find homers and steals in one package, so Craig Biggio's son is worth rolling the dice on.

Verdict: Champ (based on an intriguing skill set that should translate well in fantasy)

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