February 17, 2018

Rick Lucks previews the fantasy prospects of Adrian Beltre and Yu Darvish to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.

One great way to identify sleepers and busts is to take advantage of any biases that may impact the community's perception of a player. For example, older players are frequently bargains on draft day because owners assume that they're going to collapse. Adrian Beltre of the Texas Rangers seems to fit into this category so far this draft season.

Postseason performance can also have an effect on a player's perceived value even though October doesn't count in fantasy. Some owners were probably counting on a cheap Yu Darvish after his disastrous World Series performance, but early ADP data suggests that owners aren't overreacting to the small sample size.

You should never avoid a player just because he's old or had a couple of bad starts. As always, you need to look under the hood and see what's really going on. Here is a closer look at Beltre and Darvish.

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The Fantasy Jury is Out

Adrian Beltre (3B, TEX) ADP: 157

A variety of ailments limited Beltre to 389 PAs last season, but they were strong PAs (.312/.383/.532 with 17 HR). He should probably be projected to miss some games at age 39, but Beltre compiled 640 PAs as recently as 2016. Even 500 PAs of last season's numbers are worth much more than his current ADP, presenting savvy owners with a fantastic buying opportunity.

To be fair, the ball definitely bounced in Beltre's favor last season. He posted a .321 BABIP, 21 points higher than his career mark, despite a loss of average exit velocity on both grounders (82.3 mph vs. 88.2 mph in 2016, 87.1 mph in 2015) and airborne batted balls (91.7 mph vs. 93.7 and 93.2). His LD% (19.7% vs. 19.8% career) and IFFB% (11% vs. 10.2% career) were in line with his career norms, and his small decline in FB% (37.1% vs. 39.1% career) wasn't large enough to meaningfully impact BABIP.

This means that some batting average regression should be expected this year, but multiple indicators suggest that Beltre will continue to be an asset in the category. He almost never strikes out, posting a 13.4% K% last year and a 14% mark over his lengthy career. Last season's 7.9% SwStr% provides no reason to think this will change anytime soon.

Beltre also posted his best chase rate since 2009 in 2017 (33.4%), allowing him to bring his BB% into double digits (10%). Plate discipline is the one baseball skill that can get better with age, and Arlington's elder statesman seems to be taking full advantage.

Unlike many other sluggers, Beltre is completely indifferent to the shift. He hit .333 against it last season versus a .327 mark when it wasn't in place. This should allow him to post reasonable BABIPs on ground balls even as his Statcast Sprint Speed declines (25.2 ft./sec last year, 26.1 ft./sec in 2016).

Beltre has never been about raw power, as his career HR/FB of 13.6% attests. He gets his homers by putting a bunch of fly balls in play, ensuring that a few find the cheap seats. Last season's rate of Brls/BBE (6.5%) fits comfortably with his other two seasons in the Statcast Era (8.5% in 2016, 5.5% in 2015), so more of the same should be expected moving forward.

All of these Statcast metrics trending the wrong way may seem like a red flag, and they would be if the trend continues. However, we know that Beltre was hurt last season, making it impossible to separate injury-related decline from age-related decline. Beltre's six Defensive Runs Saved in limited duty at 3B last season suggest that he still has at least some of his former athleticism, so a pass seems warranted until his production suffers.

Beltre is also in a perfect situation to help fantasy owners. His home park is well-known as a hitter's paradise, and the veteran's stellar resume ensures that the team bats him in the valuable cleanup slot every time he plays. This ensures that Beltre delivers plenty of counting stats to go with his batting average and power.

In conclusion, Beltre still has the skills to hit around 25 long balls with a .290 batting average and plenty of R+RBI over a full season. His final stat line may not reach any of these figures due to his age, but he will produce when available. This makes Beltre ideal for daily leagues (where you can bench him if he's not starting) and shallow formats (where a waiver wire replacement won't kill you if Beltre misses significant time). Don't sleep on the elderly!

Verdict: Champ

Yu Darvish (SP, CHC) ADP: 50

Postseason aside, Darvish has been one of the better fantasy pitchers in recent seasons. Last season's 3.86 ERA in 186 2/3 IP wasn't bad, and his xFIP (3.65) was even better. He piles up the strikeouts (27.3% K% last year, 29.7% career) and figures to win plenty of games with a strong supporting cast in Chicago. Many owners might have preferred Darvish in Los Angeles, but Chicago is probably a better spot for him.

The Cubs didn't play the all-world defense they did in 2016 last year, but they came close. Anthony Rizzo had nine DRS at 1B last season, triple the total of Rangers 1B Mike Napoli and Dodgers 1B Cody Bellinger combined. Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez split time at the keystone last year, collectively compiling 10 DRS versus three from Texas 2B Roughned Odor and six from LA's combination of Logan Forsythe and Chase Utley. Shortstop Addison Russell's 15 DRS are somehow a meaningful improvement over Corey Seager's 10 for LA, and both figures dwarf Elvis Andrus's three.

Third base is the only position the Cubs don't win, as the 3Bs for LA (Justin Turner) and Texas (Beltre) were each worth six DRS compared to Kris Bryant's one. Statcast didn't care for any of these team's outfields last year, but the Cubs -4 Outs Above Average was better than Texas's -5 and LA's -9.

Darvish's BABIP against last year (.283) was nearly 10 points lower than his career mark (.292), but opting for Chicago's defense probably makes it sustainable. His contact quality allowed was virtually unchanged last year, so any BABIP suppression is better attributed to the fielders behind him than Darvish himself.

Pitchers relying exclusively on their friends are of little interest in fantasy, but Darvish also has a dominant arsenal of pitches. His fastball is excellent, limiting opposing batters to a .246/.331/.462 line despite a 54.2% Zone%. Its average spin rate of 2,500 RPM (17th highest in MLB min. 100 thrown) allows it to generate whiffs (10.7% SwStr% last year) and induce pop-ups (40.3% FB%, 26.6% IFFB%) with great regularity. He gained velocity last season (93.3 mph in 2016, 94.2 last year), making the pitch even more believable.

Darvish also added a cutter to his regular arsenal last season, increasing its usage from 9.4% to 15.4%. It's 16.2% SwStr% was very impressive for an offering with a 50% Zone% and mediocre chase rate (35.5%). His slider is similar in that it was thrown more often (16.8% to 24.6%) and induced whiffs (14.1% SwStr%) despite being in the zone more often than not (50.2% Zone%). Darvish's curve is a more traditional wipeout pitch (16.2% SwStr%, 31.9% Zone%, 36.5% Zone%), but it fell out of favor (6.1% usage) because Darvish gets comparable whiffs on offerings in the zone.

Darvish also features a terrible sinker (7.6% SwStr%, 39.4% Zone%) that should just be replaced with his fastball and secondary offerings. This is the source of any upside Darvish has yet to reach at the MLB level.

Darvish struggled with the long ball at times last year (15.1% HR/FB vs. 12% career), but otherwise put up the numbers fantasy owners were expecting. With a solid arsenal of pitches and an elite defense behind him, Darvish can front a fantasy rotation in 2018.

Verdict: Champ

More 2018 Player Outlooks