👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champs or Chumps: Aaron Nola & Jon Gray

When streaming starting pitchers, there are generally two criteria to choose the best option. The first is the quality of the opposition, as a lesser offense is less likely to hurt your ratios. The second is venue, as fantasy owners look to maximize innings in Kansas City and Miami while avoiding Coors Field like the plague.

The latter point is why Rockies arms are seldom rostered in standard leagues. The same is true to a lesser degree of other hitter-friendly stadiums, such as Philadelphia and Texas. Bad parks can be overcome, however. Pitchers who tame a hostile home offer serious profit potential, as many owners refuse to even consider them on Draft Day. With this upside in mind, let's see if sophomores Aaron Nola and Jonathan Gray are viable fantasy options.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Aaron Nola (SP, PHI) ADP: 172.7

Nola's 2016 was ugly by surface stats, as he posted a 6-9 record and 4.78 ERA. His 3.08 FIP suggests that he deserved far better, a point his identical 3.08 xFIP agrees with. Nola had problems with BABIP (.334) and strand rate (60.6 percent) last season, both of which can be expected to regress toward the league average rate going forward. The biggest problem with pitching in Philly is the long ball, and Nola has it under control.

That might seem weird to say when his HR/FB was right on the league average last year (12.8 percent), but Nola does not limit homers by relying on weak contact. Instead, he controls them by limiting fly balls. Batters managed a FB% of just 24.8 percent against Nola last year thanks primarily to a two-seam fastball with a 61.6 percent GB%. Fantasy owners usually don't love two-seamers, but Nola's is required to pitch effectively in his home park.

The two-seamer only had a SwStr% of 3.1 percent last year, but Nola still put up a sexy 25.1 percent strikeout rate. He managed this with two plus strikeout offerings: a curve (19 percent SwStr%, 45.9 percent chase rate) and a change (12.7 percent SwStr%, 42.2 percent chase). Two plus pitches are usually enough to sustain strong strikeout rates, so Nola figures to contribute in the category in 2017 despite lacking a big heater (5 percent SwStr%).

Wins may be hard to come by on a rebuilding club, but Nola offers the strikeout and ratio upside to help in all formats regardless. If your league counts QS instead of wins, he could be an SP2 this year. Nola offers tremendous value for his current draft price.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jon Gray (SP, COL) ADP: 187.7

Gray's season was a lot like Nola's in that his surface stats (4.61 ERA) were garbage while the underlying metrics (3.60 FIP, 26 percent strikeout rate) were a lot better. He also managed a league average HR/FB, a significant accomplishment for a Coors hurler.

Unlike Citizens Bank Park, Coors Field is not a pitcher torture chamber just because of homers. Stadiums like Arlington are just as bad in terms of home runs allowed. Coors differentiates itself with its thin air and spacious outfield, preventing breaking balls from breaking, sinkers from sinking, and any but the fastest outfielders from catching routine flies.

Gray has the repertoire to meet the Coors challenge. He doesn't throw a sinker or two-seamer, relying instead on a 95-mph fastball that plays anywhere. Its solid 6.8 percent SwStr% ably sets up an absolutely filthy slider (24.1 percent SwStr%, 48.9 percent chase) and competent change (13 percent SwStr%, 38.9 percent chase). His curve is mediocre (10 percent SwStr%, 22.2 percent chase) so it probably gets scrapped soon. The fastball-changeup-slider combination is probably a pitcher's best bet at mitigating the effects of altitude.

Don't shy away from Gray on Draft Day because of his home address. Gray offers strikeout upside and breakout potential that it is tough to find in his current draft slot. The Rockies are an interesting sleeper team for wins this year, and you can always bench him during home stands if you need to. At worst, Gray seems like the ultimate streaming option with upside for much more.

Verdict: Champ




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Matthew Boyd

Cubs Putting Matthew Boyd on 15-Day Injured List With Biceps Strain
Mickey Moniak

Goes Yard Twice Against his Old Team
Brent Rooker

Homers Twice, Drives in Six in Win Over Astros
Mike Trout

Considered Day-to-Day With Hand Contusion
New York Giants

Dexter Lawrence Requests a Trade, Won't Take Part in Offseason Program
Brooks Koepka

Needs his Putter to Work at Augusta National
Cameron Young

Playing Incredibly Well Heading into 2026 Masters
Kyle Williams

Is Kyle Williams the Latest Patriots Draft Bust at Wide Receiver?
Elic Ayomanor

Should Benefit from Improved Quarterback Play
Isaac TeSlaa

Unlikely to Repeat Touchdown Efficiency
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Remains Unsigned
Darius Slayton

Where Does Darius Slayton Fit Among a Crowd of Giants Pass-Catchers?
Vít Krejčí

Vit Krejci Still Sidelined Monday
Bruce Brown

Likely Available vs. Portland
Spencer Jones

Remains Sidelined Monday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out Monday vs. Orlando
Dillon Brooks

Risks Suspension After 18th Technical Foul
Daniel Gafford

Leaves Game Early with Shoulder Injury
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic to Undergo Hamstring Treatment in Europe
Will Cuylle

Grabs First Career Hat Trick in Blowout Win
Jacob Markstrom

Records First Shutout of the Season
Brady Tkachuk

Scores Twice Against Hurricanes
Sidney Crosby

Registers Three Points in Sunday's Win
Robert Thomas

Pots First Career Hat Trick
Valeri Nichushkin

Labeled Day-to-Day
Chris Duncan

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Renato Moicano

Gets Back In The Win Column
Tabatha Ricci

Gets Outgrappled
Virna Jandiroba

Bounces Back
Brendson Ribeiro

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Earns First-Round Submission Win
Rafael Estevam

Suffers His First Loss
Ethyn Ewing

Dominates At UFC Vegas 115
Pat Bryant

Year 2 Breakout No Longer in the Cards?
Troy Franklin

Set to Take a Step Backward in 2026?
Sam Howell

Joe Milton III to Compete for Backup Role
Cameron Ward

Working in the Building, Making Good Progress
Will Levis

Titans to Trade Will Levis Before the Draft?
Jacob Markstrom

Shuts Out the Canadiens
Brady Tkachuk

Scores Twice on Sunday
Cameron Payne

Out at Least Two Weeks
Duncan Robinson

Iffy for Monday
Jerami Grant

Out Again Monday
Tobias Harris

Questionable Vs. Magic
Karl-Anthony Towns

Back Against Atlanta
Joel Embiid

Available Monday Vs. Spurs
Mike Trout

Exits Early After Getting Hit by Pitch
Brandon Williams

Good to Go Sunday
Marvin Bagley III

Available Sunday Against Lakers
Moussa Diabaté

Moussa Diabate Back in Lineup Sunday
Kirill Kaprizov

Bags Sixth Career Hat Trick Sunday
Stuart Skinner

Nursing Upper-Body Injury
Charlie Lindgren

Gets the Nod Sunday
Pavel Buchnevich

Ready to Play Sunday Night
Jordan Staal

Jordan Martinook Unavailable Sunday
Frederik Andersen

Takes on Senators Sunday
Linus Ullmark

Faces Hurricanes Sunday
Trevor Lawrence

Can a Dynamic Surrounding Cast Lead Trevor Lawrence to Another Career Year?
Malik Willis

Dolphins Want to Build Around Malik Willis
Courtland Sutton

Has Courtland Sutton's Dropping Dynasty Value Made Him a Buy-Low Candidate?
Ryan Rollins

Available Against Grizzlies
David Njoku

One of the Top Remaining Free Agents
Leonard Miller

Matas Buzelis Out Sunday, Leonard Miller Joins Starting Lineup
Tyler Warren

has Room to Grow in Year 2
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Back in Action Sunday
Josh Giddey

Won't Play Against Suns
Trey Murphy III

Out Sunday
Pete Fairbanks

Serving as Opener Before Going on Paternity List
George Klassen

Called Up to Start on Sunday
Stephon Gilmore

Announces his Retirement
Hunter Brown

Placed on 15-Day Injured List with Right-Shoulder Strain
Matthew Stafford

Rams to Put Matthew Stafford on Pitch Count Ahead of 2026 Season?
Isaiah Likely

John Harbaugh "Certain" Isaiah Likely Will Break Out
New York Jets

Jets "Leaning Toward" Arvell Reese at No. 2 Overall
Cleveland Browns

Browns Targeting Carnell Tate at No. 6 Overall?
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Dominates Rockies on Saturday
Byron Buxton

Back in Sunday's Lineup
Mookie Betts

Heading to the Injured List With Oblique Strain
Cade Horton

Cubs Place Cade Horton on 15-Day Injured List With Forearm Strain
Clayton Keller

Collects Four Points Against Canucks
Jack Eichel

Records Three Assists in Saturday's Win
Gabe Perreault

Nets First Career Hat Trick
Nicolas Hague

Exits Early Against Sharks
MacKenzie Weegar

Listed as Day-to-Day
Jack McBain

Considered Week-to-Week
Mookie Betts

Considered Day-to-Day, Heading for an MRI on Saturday
Juan Soto

Day-to-Day With Minor Groin Strain, No Decision on IL Yet
MLB

Cubs-Guardians Game Postponed on Saturday
Mookie Betts

Leaves Early With Back Injury
Alejandro Kirk

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Thumb Fracture
Juan Soto

Mets Concerned About Juan Soto's Calf Injury
Juan Soto

Removed with Calf Tightness
Byron Buxton

is Day-to-Day with Forearm Contusion
Byron Buxton

Leaves on Friday After Being Hit by a Pitch
Chris Duncan

Set For UFC Vegas 115 Main Event
Renato Moicano

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 115
Tabatha Ricci

Set For UFC Vegas 115 Co-Main Event
Virna Jandiroba

Looks To Bounce Back
Brendson Ribeiro

In Desperate Need Of Win
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Looks To Remain Unbeaten
Ethyn Ewing

Set For His Second UFC Bout
Rafael Estevam

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Gunner Stockton Looking "Great" After Offseason Injury
CFB

Sam Leavitt Showing "Encouraging Signs" at LSU Practice
J.J. Spaun

Needs the Putter to Cooperate in San Antonio
Thorbjorn Olesen

Trending Up in San Antonio
Denny McCarthy

Carrying Momentum into San Antonio
Chris Kirk

Has Course History on His Side in San Antonio
Billy Horschel

a Volatile Option at the Valero Texas Open
Joe Highsmith

Still Searching for Form in San Antonio
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks to Find Form at the Valero Texas Open
Jordan Spieth

a Horse for Course History at TPC San Antonio
Robert MacIntyre

Has One Flaw to Overcome at Valero Texas Open to be a Must-Play
Maverick McNealy

In Exceptional Form This Season
Michael Thorbjornsen

Playing Well But Still Searching For A Win
Hideki Matsuyama

Playing Well Heading to the Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim

Heads to Valero Texas Open For Final Tune-Up Before Masters
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF