👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champs or Chumps: Aaron Nola & Jon Gray

When streaming starting pitchers, there are generally two criteria to choose the best option. The first is the quality of the opposition, as a lesser offense is less likely to hurt your ratios. The second is venue, as fantasy owners look to maximize innings in Kansas City and Miami while avoiding Coors Field like the plague.

The latter point is why Rockies arms are seldom rostered in standard leagues. The same is true to a lesser degree of other hitter-friendly stadiums, such as Philadelphia and Texas. Bad parks can be overcome, however. Pitchers who tame a hostile home offer serious profit potential, as many owners refuse to even consider them on Draft Day. With this upside in mind, let's see if sophomores Aaron Nola and Jonathan Gray are viable fantasy options.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Aaron Nola (SP, PHI) ADP: 172.7

Nola's 2016 was ugly by surface stats, as he posted a 6-9 record and 4.78 ERA. His 3.08 FIP suggests that he deserved far better, a point his identical 3.08 xFIP agrees with. Nola had problems with BABIP (.334) and strand rate (60.6 percent) last season, both of which can be expected to regress toward the league average rate going forward. The biggest problem with pitching in Philly is the long ball, and Nola has it under control.

That might seem weird to say when his HR/FB was right on the league average last year (12.8 percent), but Nola does not limit homers by relying on weak contact. Instead, he controls them by limiting fly balls. Batters managed a FB% of just 24.8 percent against Nola last year thanks primarily to a two-seam fastball with a 61.6 percent GB%. Fantasy owners usually don't love two-seamers, but Nola's is required to pitch effectively in his home park.

The two-seamer only had a SwStr% of 3.1 percent last year, but Nola still put up a sexy 25.1 percent strikeout rate. He managed this with two plus strikeout offerings: a curve (19 percent SwStr%, 45.9 percent chase rate) and a change (12.7 percent SwStr%, 42.2 percent chase). Two plus pitches are usually enough to sustain strong strikeout rates, so Nola figures to contribute in the category in 2017 despite lacking a big heater (5 percent SwStr%).

Wins may be hard to come by on a rebuilding club, but Nola offers the strikeout and ratio upside to help in all formats regardless. If your league counts QS instead of wins, he could be an SP2 this year. Nola offers tremendous value for his current draft price.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jon Gray (SP, COL) ADP: 187.7

Gray's season was a lot like Nola's in that his surface stats (4.61 ERA) were garbage while the underlying metrics (3.60 FIP, 26 percent strikeout rate) were a lot better. He also managed a league average HR/FB, a significant accomplishment for a Coors hurler.

Unlike Citizens Bank Park, Coors Field is not a pitcher torture chamber just because of homers. Stadiums like Arlington are just as bad in terms of home runs allowed. Coors differentiates itself with its thin air and spacious outfield, preventing breaking balls from breaking, sinkers from sinking, and any but the fastest outfielders from catching routine flies.

Gray has the repertoire to meet the Coors challenge. He doesn't throw a sinker or two-seamer, relying instead on a 95-mph fastball that plays anywhere. Its solid 6.8 percent SwStr% ably sets up an absolutely filthy slider (24.1 percent SwStr%, 48.9 percent chase) and competent change (13 percent SwStr%, 38.9 percent chase). His curve is mediocre (10 percent SwStr%, 22.2 percent chase) so it probably gets scrapped soon. The fastball-changeup-slider combination is probably a pitcher's best bet at mitigating the effects of altitude.

Don't shy away from Gray on Draft Day because of his home address. Gray offers strikeout upside and breakout potential that it is tough to find in his current draft slot. The Rockies are an interesting sleeper team for wins this year, and you can always bench him during home stands if you need to. At worst, Gray seems like the ultimate streaming option with upside for much more.

Verdict: Champ




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jalen Chatfield

Exits Early With Lower-Body Injury
Nazem Kadri

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Tuesday
Ty Jerome

Remains Out Wednesday
Wendell Carter Jr.

Iffy for Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

Might Be an Option for Pistons Wednesday
Thomas Bryant

Misses Wednesday's Game
Dean Wade

Could Return Wednesday
Jaylon Tyson

Questionable Wednesday
Jerami Grant

Unavailable Wednesday
Ray Davis

Patience Dwindling for Ray Davis' Dynasty Managers?
Ja'Marr Chase

a Real Threat to Finish as Overall WR1?
Javonte Williams

Returning to Face Minimal Competition?
Tyrrell Hatton

a Steady Option at The Masters
Justin Thomas

a High-Risk, High-Reward Option at The Masters
Terry McLaurin

the Undisputed Focal Point of Washington's Offense
Justin Herbert

a Dynasty Target with New-Look Offense Around Him?
Tee Higgins

an Intriguing Dynasty Trade Target with QB Healthy?
PGA

Sungjae Im a Volatile Option at the Masters
Nicolai Hojgaard

Carrying Momentum Into The Masters
Si Woo Kim

in Strong Form Heading to The Masters
Chris Gotterup

Ready to Make His Masters Debut
Patrick Reed

Brings Momentum to The Masters
Jon Rahm

Looks Poised for His Second Green Jacket
Morgan Geekie

Collects Second Career Hat Trick
Joel Eriksson Ek

has Three Points in Victory
Jacob deGrom

Doesn't Have Structural Damage in his Knee
J.T. Realmuto

Leaves Game on Tuesday Due to Bruised Right Foot
Shaedon Sharpe

Picks Up Doubtful Tag
New York Giants

Dexter Lawrence Looking for $30 Million Annually?
Stephon Castle

Considered Doubtful for Wednesday
Marte Mapu

Texans Acquire Linebacker Marte Mapu From Patriots
Jaxson Hayes

a Late Scratch Against Thunder
Cleveland Browns

Browns Considering Francis Mauigoa at No. 6 Overall?
Max Strus

Returning to Action Wednesday
Deshaun Watson

Medically Cleared for QB Competition
Caleb Martin

Still Sidelined Tuesday
Donovan Mitchell

Listed as Questionable for Wednesday
James Conner

Present for Start of Offseason Program
James Harden

Available Wednesday
Brandon Williams

Ruled Out Tuesday
Cam Skattebo

in Attendance at Offseason Program
Malik Nabers

to be Ready to Play at Some Point in Training Camp
Kevin Porter Jr.

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
P.J. Washington

Out Tuesday Against Clippers
Marvin Bagley III

Daniel Gafford Out, Marvin Bagley III Available Tuesday
Kristaps Porzingis

Ruled Out Tuesday
Stephen Curry

Good to Go Tuesday
Duncan Robinson

Available Wednesday
Cody Ponce

to Have Knee Surgery, Expected to Miss Six Months
Alejandro Kirk

Facing Six-Week Absence
Jacob deGrom

to Undergo MRI on Tuesday
Mike Trout

Back in the Lineup on Tuesday
Hunter Brown

Diagnosed with Grade 2 Shoulder Strain
Pavel Mintyukov

Returns From Three-Game Absence
Cutter Gauthier

Remains Sidelined Tuesday
Kirby Dach

Ready to Return Tuesday
Jordan Staal

Good to Go Tuesday
Adam Scott

Form Points to Him Competing at Masters
Jordan Spieth

Finding Consistency Heading to Masters
Hideki Matsuyama

Trending In Right Direction For Masters
Valeri Nichushkin

Nicolas Roy Available Tuesday
Cale Makar

Expected to Miss More Time
Matthew Tkachuk

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Cade Horton

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
De'Von Achane

Not Present for Start of Voluntary Workouts
Malik Nabers

Present for Start of Offseason Program
NFL

Fernando Mendoza Not Planning to Attend the NFL Draft
New York Giants

Dexter Lawrence to Get a New Deal From Giants?
Carolina Panthers

Diego Pavia Visiting With Panthers on Tuesday
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Hosting Denzel Boston on Pre-Draft Visit on Tuesday
Malik Willis

Dolphins Looking to Build Around Malik Willis
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Signs Franchise Tag, Present for Offseason Workouts
Tommy Fleetwood

a Contender if his Putter Cooperates at The Masters
Nikita Kucherov

Nets 400th Career Goal
Evander Kane

Unlikely to Play Tuesday
Kevin Lankinen

Won't Dress on Tuesday
Morgan Barron

Considered Week-to-Week
Pontus Holmberg

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Monday
Philipp Grubauer

Exits With Injury Monday
Mark Scheifele

Collects Three Helpers on Monday
Jacob deGrom

Pitches Through Knee Issue on Monday
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Defeats the Lightning
Dalton Rushing

Smacks Two Homers in Rout of Blue Jays
Max Scherzer

Dealing With Forearm Tendinitis, Expected to Make his Next Start
Collin Morikawa

Vegas has Lost Confidence in Collin Morikawa Ahead of Masters Tournament
Ludvig Aberg

One of the Top Plays For This Week's Masters Tournament
Rory McIlroy

Set to Defend his Long-Awaited Masters Victory
Bryson DeChambeau

Looks to Finally Claim a Green Jacket
Patrick Cantlay

Needs Plenty to Go Right at Augusta
Harris English

Playing Solid Golf Heading to Masters
Sam Burns

Bouncing Back Nicely After Slow Start to 2026 Season
Corey Conners

Quietly Putting Together A Strong 2026 Season
Russell Henley

Looks to Bounce Back At Masters
Andrew Mangiapane

Available for Monday's Tilt
Shane Wright

Expected to Miss Another Game
Mike Trout

Held Out of Series Opener Against Braves
Alejandro Kirk

to Undergo Thumb Surgery on Tuesday
Juan Soto

Mets Place Juan Soto on 10-Day Injured List
Matthew Boyd

Cubs Putting Matthew Boyd on 15-Day Injured List With Biceps Strain
Mickey Moniak

Goes Yard Twice Against his Old Team
Brent Rooker

Homers Twice, Drives in Six in Win Over Astros
Mike Trout

Considered Day-to-Day With Hand Contusion
Chris Duncan

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Renato Moicano

Gets Back In The Win Column
Tabatha Ricci

Gets Outgrappled
Virna Jandiroba

Bounces Back
Brendson Ribeiro

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Earns First-Round Submission Win
Rafael Estevam

Suffers His First Loss
Ethyn Ewing

Dominates At UFC Vegas 115
Mike Trout

Exits Early After Getting Hit by Pitch
Pete Fairbanks

Serving as Opener Before Going on Paternity List
George Klassen

Called Up to Start on Sunday
Chris Duncan

Set For UFC Vegas 115 Main Event
Renato Moicano

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 115
Tabatha Ricci

Set For UFC Vegas 115 Co-Main Event
Virna Jandiroba

Looks To Bounce Back
Brendson Ribeiro

In Desperate Need Of Win
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Looks To Remain Unbeaten
Ethyn Ewing

Set For His Second UFC Bout
Rafael Estevam

Looks To Remain Undefeated
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF