👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champs or Chumps: Aaron Nola & Jon Gray

When streaming starting pitchers, there are generally two criteria to choose the best option. The first is the quality of the opposition, as a lesser offense is less likely to hurt your ratios. The second is venue, as fantasy owners look to maximize innings in Kansas City and Miami while avoiding Coors Field like the plague.

The latter point is why Rockies arms are seldom rostered in standard leagues. The same is true to a lesser degree of other hitter-friendly stadiums, such as Philadelphia and Texas. Bad parks can be overcome, however. Pitchers who tame a hostile home offer serious profit potential, as many owners refuse to even consider them on Draft Day. With this upside in mind, let's see if sophomores Aaron Nola and Jonathan Gray are viable fantasy options.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Aaron Nola (SP, PHI) ADP: 172.7

Nola's 2016 was ugly by surface stats, as he posted a 6-9 record and 4.78 ERA. His 3.08 FIP suggests that he deserved far better, a point his identical 3.08 xFIP agrees with. Nola had problems with BABIP (.334) and strand rate (60.6 percent) last season, both of which can be expected to regress toward the league average rate going forward. The biggest problem with pitching in Philly is the long ball, and Nola has it under control.

That might seem weird to say when his HR/FB was right on the league average last year (12.8 percent), but Nola does not limit homers by relying on weak contact. Instead, he controls them by limiting fly balls. Batters managed a FB% of just 24.8 percent against Nola last year thanks primarily to a two-seam fastball with a 61.6 percent GB%. Fantasy owners usually don't love two-seamers, but Nola's is required to pitch effectively in his home park.

The two-seamer only had a SwStr% of 3.1 percent last year, but Nola still put up a sexy 25.1 percent strikeout rate. He managed this with two plus strikeout offerings: a curve (19 percent SwStr%, 45.9 percent chase rate) and a change (12.7 percent SwStr%, 42.2 percent chase). Two plus pitches are usually enough to sustain strong strikeout rates, so Nola figures to contribute in the category in 2017 despite lacking a big heater (5 percent SwStr%).

Wins may be hard to come by on a rebuilding club, but Nola offers the strikeout and ratio upside to help in all formats regardless. If your league counts QS instead of wins, he could be an SP2 this year. Nola offers tremendous value for his current draft price.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jon Gray (SP, COL) ADP: 187.7

Gray's season was a lot like Nola's in that his surface stats (4.61 ERA) were garbage while the underlying metrics (3.60 FIP, 26 percent strikeout rate) were a lot better. He also managed a league average HR/FB, a significant accomplishment for a Coors hurler.

Unlike Citizens Bank Park, Coors Field is not a pitcher torture chamber just because of homers. Stadiums like Arlington are just as bad in terms of home runs allowed. Coors differentiates itself with its thin air and spacious outfield, preventing breaking balls from breaking, sinkers from sinking, and any but the fastest outfielders from catching routine flies.

Gray has the repertoire to meet the Coors challenge. He doesn't throw a sinker or two-seamer, relying instead on a 95-mph fastball that plays anywhere. Its solid 6.8 percent SwStr% ably sets up an absolutely filthy slider (24.1 percent SwStr%, 48.9 percent chase) and competent change (13 percent SwStr%, 38.9 percent chase). His curve is mediocre (10 percent SwStr%, 22.2 percent chase) so it probably gets scrapped soon. The fastball-changeup-slider combination is probably a pitcher's best bet at mitigating the effects of altitude.

Don't shy away from Gray on Draft Day because of his home address. Gray offers strikeout upside and breakout potential that it is tough to find in his current draft slot. The Rockies are an interesting sleeper team for wins this year, and you can always bench him during home stands if you need to. At worst, Gray seems like the ultimate streaming option with upside for much more.

Verdict: Champ




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Posts 25 in Series Opener
Paul George

Delivers 17 Points Against Boston
Tyrese Maxey

Leads 76ers in Game 1 Defeat
Jaylen Brown

Scores 26 Points in Game 1 Victory
Jayson Tatum

Posts Double-Double in Game 1 Win
Peyton Watson

Still Sidelined for Game 2
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Dynasty Value at All-Time Low
NFL

David Bailey Visits Several Teams Leading Up to the NFL Draft
Anthony Edwards

Listed as Questionable for Game 2
NFL

Oscar Delp Takes Several Visits Ahead of Draft
NFL

Chiefs Talking with Cardinals About the No. 3 Pick
Carson Beck

Steelers Eyeing Carson Beck in the Draft?
Thomas Bryant

to Remain Out Monday
Juan Soto

is on Track to Return Next Homestand
Cade Cunningham

Playing Without Minutes Restriction Sunday
Corbin Carroll

Exits Sunday's Game with Back Tightness
OG Anunoby

Tagged as Probable for Monday
Onyeka Okongwu

Might Miss Game 2 Against Knicks
Immanuel Quickley

Questionable for Game 2
Jordan Goodwin

Ruled Out for Rest of Game 1
Jonathan Isaac

Ruled Out for Sunday
Desmond Bane

Available for Game 1
Artem Zub

Uncertain for Game 2
Karel Vejmelka

Makes Playoff Debut Sunday
Carter Hart

in Vegas Crease for Playoff Opener
Jeremy Swayman

Begins Fifth Postseason Campaign
Alex Lyon

Available for Game 1
Dominic James

Activated From Injured Reserve
NFL

Zachariah Branch Arrested for Misdemeanor Obstruction
New York Giants

Sonny Styles One of the Top Targets for Giants at No. 5 in NFL Draft
Renardo Green

49ers Looking to Trade Renardo Green?
Keenan Allen

Chargers Not Closing the Door on a Reunion With Keenan Allen
Grayson Allen

is Available for Game 1 on Sunday
A.J. Brown

Eagles Preparing for A.J. Brown's Departure?
Peter Skoronski

Titans to Pick Up Peter Skoronski's Fifth-Year Option
Breece Hall

Dynasty Upside Remains Limited by Offensive Environment in New York
Cincinnati Bengals

Dexter Lawrence Signing One-Year Extension With Bengals
Kristaps Porzingis

Unsure About Returning to Golden State
Drake London

Dynasty Upside Remains Limited by Quarterback Questions in Atlanta
Mark Williams

is Ruled Out for Game 1 on Sunday
Chris Olave

Dynasty Value Rising After Resurgent 2025 Season
Coby White

Hornets Want to Bring Back Coby White
Bucky Irving

Can Bucky Irving Bounce Back After Injury-Marred 2025?
Kenneth Walker III

a Major Dynasty Riser After Offseason Move to Kansas City
Desmond Bane

Considered Probable for Game 1
Bo Nix

Dynasty Value in Question Coming Off Injury?
Tarik Skubal

Fans 10 in Win Over Red Sox on Saturday
Raisel Iglesias

Dealing With Shoulder Issue
Davante Adams

Glaring Opportunity to Sell High on Davante Adams?
Jordan Addison

Can Jordan Addison Overcome Ugly Quarterback Situation?
Emeka Egbuka

a Trade Target in Some Dynasty Leagues
Kyle Larson

Should not be Underestimated for the Win at Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Can Denny Hamlin Dominate at Kansas Again?
NASCAR

Christoper Bell Should Contend for First Win at Kansas
Joel Eriksson Ek

Powers Minnesota Past Dallas in Opening Game
Tyler Reddick

Fastest in Practice and Qualifying for Kansas Race
Ryan Blaney

Could Score another Top-10 Finish at Kansas
Ty Gibbs

Poised to Continue Hot Streak at Kansas
Logan Stankoven

Makes Big Impact in Carolina's Game 1 Victory
Chris Buescher

Always Consistent, Has Speed Heading Into Kansas
William Byron

is A Solid DFS Option for Kansas Lineups
Carson Hocevar

Poised for Career-Best Run at Kansas
Porter Martone

Nets Game-Winning Goal to Defeat Pittsburgh
Frederik Andersen

Shuts Out Ottawa in Game 1
Chase Briscoe

Is Chase Briscoe Worth Rostering for DFS at Kansas?
Chase Elliott

Is A Favorable DFS Option for Kansas Lineups
Matt Boldy

Delivers Huge Game 1 Performance in Win
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano be Considered Playable In DFS This Week at Kansas?
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace is A Favorable Driver to Consider for Kansas Lineups
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain A Worthy DFS Option for Kansas?
Brad Keselowski

Could Brad Keselowski be A Sneaky DFS Option for Kansas?
Daniel Suarez

Should DFS Managers Roster Daniel Suarez at Kansas?
Dylan Harper

is Ready for Sunday's Game
Stuart Skinner

Starting Game 1 Against Flyers
Alexandre Carrier

Back at Practice
Jared McCann

Undergoes Lower-Body Procedure
Andrei Kuzmenko

Activated From Injured Reserve
Victor Hedman

Out for Game 1 on Sunday
William Karlsson

Unavailable for Start of First-Round Series
Quinn Hughes

Available Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Cleared for Game 1
Jhoan Duran

Placed on 15-Day Injured List With Oblique Strain
Kyle Stowers

Will be Activated on Sunday
Jesper Wallstedt

to Start in Goal for Minnesota on Saturday
Logan Stankoven

Presumed Ready for Game 1
Max Muncy

has Another Multi-Homer Game at Coors Field
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Expected to Make Season Debut on Saturday
Austin Riley

Hits Two Home Runs in Shutout Win Over Phillies
Daulton Varsho

Removed Early on Friday With Knee Discomfort
Edwin Uceta

Having More Shoulder Issues, "Shut Down for a Few Days"
Josh Hader

Moved to 60-Day Injured List
Willson Contreras

Returns to Red Sox Lineup on Friday
Daniel Palencia

Goes on 15-Day Injured List With Oblique Strain
Juan Soto

Still on Track to Return Next Week
Los Angeles Angels

Garret Anderson Dies at 53 Years Old
Mike Malott

A Favorite At UFC Winnipeg
Gilbert Burns

Set For UFC Winnipeg Main Event
Kyler Phillips

Set UFC Winnipeg Co-Main Event
Charles Jourdain

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Jai Herbert

An Underdog At UFC Winnipeg
Mandel Nallo

Set For His UFC Debut
Karine Silva

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Bounce Back
Parker Messick

Flirts With No-Hitter in Latest Gem Against Orioles
Mike Trout

Hits Five Homers in Series Versus Yankees
Spencer Arrighetti

Fans 10 in Season Debut, to Remain a Focal Point in Rotation?
Nick Pivetta

Dealing With Flexor Strain, Could Miss Months
Nico Hoerner

Homers, Drive in Five in Win Over Phillies
CFB

Michigan Lands Commitment From Quarterback Kamden Lopati
Sahith Theegala

Brings Strong Form Into Harbour Town
Wyndham Clark

Needs Putter to Show Up at RBC Heritage
Jacob Bridgeman

Looks to Return to Elite Form at Harbour Town
J.J. Spaun

a Volatile Option at RBC Heritage
PGA

Sungjae Im Offers High-Upside Value at RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick

Set for Another Strong Showing at RBC Heritage
Jason Day

Eyes Bounce-Back After Sunday Struggles at the Masters
Akshay Bhatia

Looking to Rebound at Harbour Town
Cameron Young

Hoping to Secure Second Win of Season at RBC Heritage
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Win Again at RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry

Has Disappointing Final Round at Masters
Viktor Hovland

Hoping to Build on Final Round at Masters
Brian Harman

Struggling For Consistency Heading to RBC Heritage
Chris Gotterup

Putting Together Outstanding 2026 Season
Justin Thomas

Looks to Defend in Hilton Head
Jordan Spieth

in Search of Improved Putting at RBC Heritage
Marco Penge

May Continue Up-and-Down Ride at the RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele

Could Get The Job Done at RBC Heritage
Jake Knapp

Keeps Building Strong Results in 2026
Kurt Kitayama

Trying to Regain Form From Florida
Collin Morikawa

Continues to be a Scary DFS Play at RBC Heritage
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF