👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champs or Chumps: Aaron Nola & Jon Gray

When streaming starting pitchers, there are generally two criteria to choose the best option. The first is the quality of the opposition, as a lesser offense is less likely to hurt your ratios. The second is venue, as fantasy owners look to maximize innings in Kansas City and Miami while avoiding Coors Field like the plague.

The latter point is why Rockies arms are seldom rostered in standard leagues. The same is true to a lesser degree of other hitter-friendly stadiums, such as Philadelphia and Texas. Bad parks can be overcome, however. Pitchers who tame a hostile home offer serious profit potential, as many owners refuse to even consider them on Draft Day. With this upside in mind, let's see if sophomores Aaron Nola and Jonathan Gray are viable fantasy options.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Aaron Nola (SP, PHI) ADP: 172.7

Nola's 2016 was ugly by surface stats, as he posted a 6-9 record and 4.78 ERA. His 3.08 FIP suggests that he deserved far better, a point his identical 3.08 xFIP agrees with. Nola had problems with BABIP (.334) and strand rate (60.6 percent) last season, both of which can be expected to regress toward the league average rate going forward. The biggest problem with pitching in Philly is the long ball, and Nola has it under control.

That might seem weird to say when his HR/FB was right on the league average last year (12.8 percent), but Nola does not limit homers by relying on weak contact. Instead, he controls them by limiting fly balls. Batters managed a FB% of just 24.8 percent against Nola last year thanks primarily to a two-seam fastball with a 61.6 percent GB%. Fantasy owners usually don't love two-seamers, but Nola's is required to pitch effectively in his home park.

The two-seamer only had a SwStr% of 3.1 percent last year, but Nola still put up a sexy 25.1 percent strikeout rate. He managed this with two plus strikeout offerings: a curve (19 percent SwStr%, 45.9 percent chase rate) and a change (12.7 percent SwStr%, 42.2 percent chase). Two plus pitches are usually enough to sustain strong strikeout rates, so Nola figures to contribute in the category in 2017 despite lacking a big heater (5 percent SwStr%).

Wins may be hard to come by on a rebuilding club, but Nola offers the strikeout and ratio upside to help in all formats regardless. If your league counts QS instead of wins, he could be an SP2 this year. Nola offers tremendous value for his current draft price.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jon Gray (SP, COL) ADP: 187.7

Gray's season was a lot like Nola's in that his surface stats (4.61 ERA) were garbage while the underlying metrics (3.60 FIP, 26 percent strikeout rate) were a lot better. He also managed a league average HR/FB, a significant accomplishment for a Coors hurler.

Unlike Citizens Bank Park, Coors Field is not a pitcher torture chamber just because of homers. Stadiums like Arlington are just as bad in terms of home runs allowed. Coors differentiates itself with its thin air and spacious outfield, preventing breaking balls from breaking, sinkers from sinking, and any but the fastest outfielders from catching routine flies.

Gray has the repertoire to meet the Coors challenge. He doesn't throw a sinker or two-seamer, relying instead on a 95-mph fastball that plays anywhere. Its solid 6.8 percent SwStr% ably sets up an absolutely filthy slider (24.1 percent SwStr%, 48.9 percent chase) and competent change (13 percent SwStr%, 38.9 percent chase). His curve is mediocre (10 percent SwStr%, 22.2 percent chase) so it probably gets scrapped soon. The fastball-changeup-slider combination is probably a pitcher's best bet at mitigating the effects of altitude.

Don't shy away from Gray on Draft Day because of his home address. Gray offers strikeout upside and breakout potential that it is tough to find in his current draft slot. The Rockies are an interesting sleeper team for wins this year, and you can always bench him during home stands if you need to. At worst, Gray seems like the ultimate streaming option with upside for much more.

Verdict: Champ




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Malik Willis

Gets Three New Receivers in the Draft
Antonio Williams

to See Starting Role on Day 1 in Weak Wide Receiver Room?
Terrance Ferguson

No Longer the Unquestioned Future TE1 in Los Angeles?
Brenton Strange

Does Brenton Strange Still Need to Prove Himself in Jacksonville?
KC Concepcion

Already Facing Competition for Targets in Cleveland
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Remains the Top Option in Washington Backfield?
MLB

Red Sox Fire Manager Alex Cora and Other Coaches
A.J. Lawson

Questionable for Sunday Due to Back Spasms
Kevin Huerter

Injures Left Hip Saturday
Green Bay Packers

Packers Take Kicker Trey Smack with Pick No. 216
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Iffy for Sunday
Victor Wembanyama

Still Questionable on Injury Report
Denver Broncos

Broncos Select Dallen Bentley with 256th Pick
Kevin Durant

Uncertain for Sunday's Action
Austin Reaves

Listed as Questionable for Sunday's Game 4
Aaron Gordon

Active on Saturday
Indianapolis Colts

Colts Select Deion Burks with Pick No. 254
Joel Embiid

Remains Doubtful Ahead of Game 4
New England Patriots

Patriots Select Jam Miller with 245th Pick
Indianapolis Colts

Colts Select Seth McGowan with Pick No. 237
New England Patriots

Patriots Take Quarterback Behren Morton with Pick No. 234
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Draft Garrett Nussmeier With 249th Overall Pick
Cleveland Browns

Browns Draft Carsen Ryan in the Seventh Round
Tennessee Titans

Titans Select Jaren Kanak with Pick No. 225
Washington Commanders

Commanders Take Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis with Pick No. 223
Houston Texans

Texans Select Lewis Bond with Pick No. 204
Pittsburgh Steelers

Navy's Eli Heidenreich to the Steelers at No. 230 Overall
Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Double Dip at Wide Receiver with C.J. Williams at Pick No. 203
Josh Manson

Not Expected to Play Sunday
Los Angeles Rams

Rams Select CJ Daniels with 197th Pick
Mason Lohrei

Set to Miss Game 4 as Healthy Scratch
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Select Jack Endries at No. 221 Overall
Emil Andrae

Won't Play Saturday
Arturs Silovs

Starting Game 4 Against Flyers
Dan Vladar

Cleared for Game 4
Mats Zuccarello

Remains Out Saturday
Nikolaj Ehlers

Dealing With Lower-Body Injury
Steven Kwan

Scratched With Neck Stiffness
Trey Yesavage

Returning From Injured List on Tuesday
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Heading to the Injured List With Oblique Strain
Kirby Dach

Battles and Scores Two Points in Friday Triumph
Connor McDavid

Delivers Mixed-Bag Performance Friday
MLB

Saturday's Mets-Rockies Game Postponed Due to Weather
Karel Vejmelka

Saves Utah With Huge Effort Friday
Lane Hutson

Scores Crucial Overtime Goal in Montreal Win
Lawson Crouse

Cashes in With Two Goals for Utah
Mikael Granlund

Serves Up Trio of Assists in Anaheim Big Win
Giancarlo Stanton

Exits With Leg Tightness on Friday
Isaiah Joe

Likely to Miss Game 3 Against Suns
Peyton Watson

to Remain Sidelined Saturday
Aaron Gordon

Questionable for Saturday's Game 4
Jordan Goodwin

on Track to Return Saturday
Grayson Allen

Listed as Questionable for Saturday
Mark Williams

Won't Play Saturday
Victor Wembanyama

Will Miss Game 3 Against Trail Blazers
Tari Eason

Reed Sheppard Move into Starting Five on Friday
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Wins Most Improved Player Award
Immanuel Quickley

to Miss Rest of First-Round Series
Kevin Durant

is Ruled Out for Game 3 on Friday
Joel Embiid

Officially Ruled Out for Game 3
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Scratched on Friday With Mid-Back Pain
Troy Terry

Available for Game 3 Against Oilers
Radko Gudas

Misses Second Straight Game Friday
Charle-Edouard D'Astous

Unavailable Friday
Dan Vladar

Considered a Game-Time Call for Saturday
Jake Sanderson

Ruled Out for Game 4 Due to Concussion
Yakov Trenin

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Stars
Mats Zuccarello

a Game-Time Decision Saturday
Jackson Holliday

Receives Positive Test Results, Will be Shut Down for a Week
Jeff Hoffman

Out as Blue Jays Closer
Youssef Zalal

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Main Event
Aljamain Sterling

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 116
Joselyne Edwards

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Co-Main Event
Norma Dumont

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Alexander Hernandez

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 116
Rafa Garcia

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Adrian Luna Martinetti

Set For His UFC Debut
Davey Grant

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jaden McDaniels

Records Double-Double in Game 3
Jordan Kyrou

Recovering From Minor Knee Procedure
Francisco Lindor

Expected to Miss "Significant Time"
Francisco Lindor

Mets Officially Place Francisco Lindor on Injured List With Calf Strain
Michael Harris II

Removed Early With Quad Tightness
Francisco Lindor

Likely Headed to the Injured List
Michael Harris II

Continues to Heat Up With Two-Homer Game on Wednesday
Francisco Lindor

Leaves Wednesday's Game Early With Calf Tightness
JR Ritchie

Earns Promotion, Will Make MLB Debut on Thursday
Wyatt Langford

Expected to Go on Injured List With Flexor Strain
Maikel Garcia

Leaves Early on Wednesday With Elbow Soreness
Roman Anthony

Day-to-Day With Sore Back
Juan Soto

Officially Back in Mets Lineup on Wednesday
J.T. Realmuto

Phillies Place J.T. Realmuto on Injured List With Back Injury
CFB

Beau Pribula Leading Virginia Quarterback Competition
Marco Penge

Trending Down Entering Zurich Classic
Sahith Theegala

Eyes Another Strong Week at Zurich Classic
Brooks Koepka

Shane Lowry Teams Up with Brooks Koepka at Zurich Classic
Si Woo Kim

Adds Another Strong Finish at RBC Heritage
Luke Clanton

Hoping to Find Form in New Orleans
Scottie Scheffler

is Starting to Hit His Stride
Brooks Koepka

Looking for Progress in PGA Return With Partner at Zurich Classic
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looks to Share Recent Form at Zurich Classic
CFB

Ashton Daniels Named Florida State's Starting Quarterback
Tyler Reddick

Earns His Fifth Win of the 2026 Season at Kansas
Kyle Larson

Finishes as the Runner-Up at Kansas
Chase Briscoe

Rallies for A New Career-Best Finish at Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Leads the Most Laps at Kansas but Misses Out on Victory
Christopher Bell

Falls Out of Contention for Kansas Victory on Final Restart
Mike Malott

Scores Third-Round TKO Win
Gilbert Burns

Retires After UFC Winnipeg Loss
Charles Jourdain

Extends Winning Streak
Kyler Phillips

Drops Decision At UFC Winnipeg
Mandel Nallo

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss In His UFC Debut
Jai Herbert

Scores First-Round TKO Win
Karine Silva

Gets Dominated at UFC Winnipeg
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Dominates Karine Silva
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF