🖥 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE THANKS
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champs or Chumps: Aaron Nola & Jon Gray

When streaming starting pitchers, there are generally two criteria to choose the best option. The first is the quality of the opposition, as a lesser offense is less likely to hurt your ratios. The second is venue, as fantasy owners look to maximize innings in Kansas City and Miami while avoiding Coors Field like the plague.

The latter point is why Rockies arms are seldom rostered in standard leagues. The same is true to a lesser degree of other hitter-friendly stadiums, such as Philadelphia and Texas. Bad parks can be overcome, however. Pitchers who tame a hostile home offer serious profit potential, as many owners refuse to even consider them on Draft Day. With this upside in mind, let's see if sophomores Aaron Nola and Jonathan Gray are viable fantasy options.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Aaron Nola (SP, PHI) ADP: 172.7

Nola's 2016 was ugly by surface stats, as he posted a 6-9 record and 4.78 ERA. His 3.08 FIP suggests that he deserved far better, a point his identical 3.08 xFIP agrees with. Nola had problems with BABIP (.334) and strand rate (60.6 percent) last season, both of which can be expected to regress toward the league average rate going forward. The biggest problem with pitching in Philly is the long ball, and Nola has it under control.

That might seem weird to say when his HR/FB was right on the league average last year (12.8 percent), but Nola does not limit homers by relying on weak contact. Instead, he controls them by limiting fly balls. Batters managed a FB% of just 24.8 percent against Nola last year thanks primarily to a two-seam fastball with a 61.6 percent GB%. Fantasy owners usually don't love two-seamers, but Nola's is required to pitch effectively in his home park.

The two-seamer only had a SwStr% of 3.1 percent last year, but Nola still put up a sexy 25.1 percent strikeout rate. He managed this with two plus strikeout offerings: a curve (19 percent SwStr%, 45.9 percent chase rate) and a change (12.7 percent SwStr%, 42.2 percent chase). Two plus pitches are usually enough to sustain strong strikeout rates, so Nola figures to contribute in the category in 2017 despite lacking a big heater (5 percent SwStr%).

Wins may be hard to come by on a rebuilding club, but Nola offers the strikeout and ratio upside to help in all formats regardless. If your league counts QS instead of wins, he could be an SP2 this year. Nola offers tremendous value for his current draft price.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jon Gray (SP, COL) ADP: 187.7

Gray's season was a lot like Nola's in that his surface stats (4.61 ERA) were garbage while the underlying metrics (3.60 FIP, 26 percent strikeout rate) were a lot better. He also managed a league average HR/FB, a significant accomplishment for a Coors hurler.

Unlike Citizens Bank Park, Coors Field is not a pitcher torture chamber just because of homers. Stadiums like Arlington are just as bad in terms of home runs allowed. Coors differentiates itself with its thin air and spacious outfield, preventing breaking balls from breaking, sinkers from sinking, and any but the fastest outfielders from catching routine flies.

Gray has the repertoire to meet the Coors challenge. He doesn't throw a sinker or two-seamer, relying instead on a 95-mph fastball that plays anywhere. Its solid 6.8 percent SwStr% ably sets up an absolutely filthy slider (24.1 percent SwStr%, 48.9 percent chase) and competent change (13 percent SwStr%, 38.9 percent chase). His curve is mediocre (10 percent SwStr%, 22.2 percent chase) so it probably gets scrapped soon. The fastball-changeup-slider combination is probably a pitcher's best bet at mitigating the effects of altitude.

Don't shy away from Gray on Draft Day because of his home address. Gray offers strikeout upside and breakout potential that it is tough to find in his current draft slot. The Rockies are an interesting sleeper team for wins this year, and you can always bench him during home stands if you need to. At worst, Gray seems like the ultimate streaming option with upside for much more.

Verdict: Champ




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Trae Young

Questionable Monday With Quad Contusion
Kirill Marchenko

Scores Twice in Sunday's Win
Josh Giddey

Expected to Suit Up Monday
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Could Miss Another Game Monday
Justin Brazeau

Pots First Career Hat Trick Sunday
Anthony Davis

Listed Questionable for Monday
Juraj Slafkovsky

Collects Season-High Three Points in Sunday's Loss
Jalen Suggs

Poised to Miss Seventh Straight Game
Eeli Tolvanen

Continues Scoring Surge With Three-Point Effort
Grayson Allen

Misses Sixth Straight Game Monday
Jack Eichel

to Remain Out Monday
Adam Fox

Nearing Return, Considered Day-to-Day
Josh Morrissey

Considered Day-to-Day After Missing Practice
De'Aaron Fox

Questionable Against the Cavaliers
Bam Adebayo

Expected Back on Monday Night
Kon Knueppel

Won't Suit Up Against Milwaukee
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Still Out on Monday
Parker Washington

Leads Jaguars in Targets, Receptions, and Receiving Yards
Wan'Dale Robinson

Posts Season-High 11 Receptions in Week 17
Josh Allen

Seen Limping From X-Ray Room, Says Foot Injury Didn't Affect Him
Geno Smith

Diagnosed With High-Ankle Sprain
John Collins

Won't Face the Pistons on Sunday Night
Trey McBride

Sets All-Time Tight End Receptions Record
Geno Smith

Exits Early With Ankle Injury
DJ Moore

Suiting Up Against 49ers on Sunday Night
Ricky Pearsall

Officially Active for Week 17 Against Bears
George Kittle

Officially Inactive for Week 17
Ja'Marr Chase

Snags Two Touchdowns in Week 17
Geno Smith

Questionable to Return With Ankle Injury
Chris Godwin Jr.

Goes Over 100 Yards in Loss to Miami
Matthew Tkachuk

Returns to Practice
Chris Olave

Extends Touchdown Streak in Win Over Titans
Linus Ullmark

Takes Leave of Absence
Travis Sanheim

Good to Go Against Kraken
Kyshawn George

Ruled Out on Sunday
Zach Charbonnet

Scores Twice in Lead-Back Role on Sunday
Nick Foligno

Set to Return Sunday
Chase Brown

Finds End Zone Twice in High-Volume Role on Sunday
Jock Landale

Out Again on Sunday
Rhamondre Stevenson

Scores Twice, Plays Major Pass-Catching Role
William Nylander

Out Against Red Wings
Stefon Diggs

Enjoys Another 100-Yard Performance in Week 17
Jared McCann

Available Sunday
Vince Dunn

on Track to Return Sunday
Breece Hall

Not Concerned About Knee Injury
Blake Lizotte

Activated From Injured Reserve
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buccaneers Not Expected to Fire Todd Bowles?
DK Metcalf

Steelers Won't Void the Guarantees in DK Metcalf's Contract
Drake Maye

Throws for Career-High Five Touchdowns in New York
Tyler Herro

Showing Progress but Still Without Timetable
CFB

Jay Hill Expected to be Next Michigan Defensive Coordinator
Zach Collins

Exits Late With Lower-Body Injury
Chris Boucher

Ruled Out Sunday for Personal Reasons
Gabe Vincent

Out Again Sunday With Back Issue
Jrue Holiday

Remains Out Sunday Against Celtics
Collin Murray-Boyles

Unlikely to Play Sunday Due to Illness
Andrei Svechnikov

Extends Scoring Run With Three-Point Effort
Auston Matthews

Bags Three Points Saturday Night
Alex Laferriere

Records First Career Hat Trick
William Nylander

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Saturday
Zach Werenski

Unlikely to Play Sunday
Jake Evans

to Miss 4-6 Weeks
Ajay Mitchell

Cleared to Return Sunday
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic Ruled Out for Sunday
CFB

Michigan Targeting Kyle Whittingham as Next Head Coach
CFB

Texas Leading Rusher Quintrevion Wisner Set to Transfer
Pete Fairbanks

Marlins Agree on One-Year Deal
Brooks Koepka

Leaving LIV Golf
Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates Agree on Two-Year Deal

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP