👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


ADP Champs or Chumps: Aaron Nola & Jon Gray

When streaming starting pitchers, there are generally two criteria to choose the best option. The first is the quality of the opposition, as a lesser offense is less likely to hurt your ratios. The second is venue, as fantasy owners look to maximize innings in Kansas City and Miami while avoiding Coors Field like the plague.

The latter point is why Rockies arms are seldom rostered in standard leagues. The same is true to a lesser degree of other hitter-friendly stadiums, such as Philadelphia and Texas. Bad parks can be overcome, however. Pitchers who tame a hostile home offer serious profit potential, as many owners refuse to even consider them on Draft Day. With this upside in mind, let's see if sophomores Aaron Nola and Jonathan Gray are viable fantasy options.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Aaron Nola (SP, PHI) ADP: 172.7

Nola's 2016 was ugly by surface stats, as he posted a 6-9 record and 4.78 ERA. His 3.08 FIP suggests that he deserved far better, a point his identical 3.08 xFIP agrees with. Nola had problems with BABIP (.334) and strand rate (60.6 percent) last season, both of which can be expected to regress toward the league average rate going forward. The biggest problem with pitching in Philly is the long ball, and Nola has it under control.

That might seem weird to say when his HR/FB was right on the league average last year (12.8 percent), but Nola does not limit homers by relying on weak contact. Instead, he controls them by limiting fly balls. Batters managed a FB% of just 24.8 percent against Nola last year thanks primarily to a two-seam fastball with a 61.6 percent GB%. Fantasy owners usually don't love two-seamers, but Nola's is required to pitch effectively in his home park.

The two-seamer only had a SwStr% of 3.1 percent last year, but Nola still put up a sexy 25.1 percent strikeout rate. He managed this with two plus strikeout offerings: a curve (19 percent SwStr%, 45.9 percent chase rate) and a change (12.7 percent SwStr%, 42.2 percent chase). Two plus pitches are usually enough to sustain strong strikeout rates, so Nola figures to contribute in the category in 2017 despite lacking a big heater (5 percent SwStr%).

Wins may be hard to come by on a rebuilding club, but Nola offers the strikeout and ratio upside to help in all formats regardless. If your league counts QS instead of wins, he could be an SP2 this year. Nola offers tremendous value for his current draft price.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jon Gray (SP, COL) ADP: 187.7

Gray's season was a lot like Nola's in that his surface stats (4.61 ERA) were garbage while the underlying metrics (3.60 FIP, 26 percent strikeout rate) were a lot better. He also managed a league average HR/FB, a significant accomplishment for a Coors hurler.

Unlike Citizens Bank Park, Coors Field is not a pitcher torture chamber just because of homers. Stadiums like Arlington are just as bad in terms of home runs allowed. Coors differentiates itself with its thin air and spacious outfield, preventing breaking balls from breaking, sinkers from sinking, and any but the fastest outfielders from catching routine flies.

Gray has the repertoire to meet the Coors challenge. He doesn't throw a sinker or two-seamer, relying instead on a 95-mph fastball that plays anywhere. Its solid 6.8 percent SwStr% ably sets up an absolutely filthy slider (24.1 percent SwStr%, 48.9 percent chase) and competent change (13 percent SwStr%, 38.9 percent chase). His curve is mediocre (10 percent SwStr%, 22.2 percent chase) so it probably gets scrapped soon. The fastball-changeup-slider combination is probably a pitcher's best bet at mitigating the effects of altitude.

Don't shy away from Gray on Draft Day because of his home address. Gray offers strikeout upside and breakout potential that it is tough to find in his current draft slot. The Rockies are an interesting sleeper team for wins this year, and you can always bench him during home stands if you need to. At worst, Gray seems like the ultimate streaming option with upside for much more.

Verdict: Champ




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Omarion Hampton

Poised for Year 2 Breakout in Los Angeles
Blake Corum

Dynasty Stock Rising After Encouraging 2025 Campaign
Jaxson Dart

Does Jaxson Dart Carry High-End Dynasty QB1 Upside?
David Montgomery

Dynasty Stock Rising Following Move to Houston
Chris Godwin Jr.

Can Chris Godwin Jr. Re-Establish His Dynasty Value in 2026?
Malik Willis

Not Set Up for Immediate Success in Miami
Terrance Ferguson

has Promising Receiving Skills in Crowded TE Room in L.A.
Brenton Strange

Is Brenton Strange a Top-15 Dynasty Tight End?
T.J. Watt

Steelers Ready to Move on From T.J. Watt?
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Must Make Gains as Pass-Catcher to Take the Next Step
CFB

Virginia Tech Lands Commitment from Four-Star QB Peter Bourque
Kaytron Allen

Could Kaytron Allen Take on a Big Role Right Away?
Demond Claiborne

Has Long-Term Appeal in Minnesota
Byron Buxton

Scratched on Thursday With Hip Soreness
Cal Raleigh

Heading to Injured List With Oblique Strain
Adam Randall

to Contribute as a Pass-Catcher Right Away?
Francisco Alvarez

has Knee Surgery, Expected to Miss Eight Weeks
Nicholas Singleton

Could Contribute Right Away
Bryce Lance

a Perfect Fit in New Orleans?
Mike Washington Jr.

Can Mike Washington Jr. Force a Backfield Split in Vegas?
Paul Reed

Makes Big Impact Off the Bench Wednesday
Adonai Mitchell

Unlikely to be Phased Out of Jets Offense
Daniss Jenkins

Contributes 19 Points As Starter
Cade Cunningham

Tallies 39 Points in Losing Effort
Tony Pollard

an Affordable Add for Contending Dynasty Managers
Max Strus

Notches 20 Points With Six Triples
Evan Mobley

Close to Triple-Double Wednesday
Mason Taylor

How Much Dynasty Value Will Mason Taylor Hold After Offensive-Heavy Draft?
Jarrett Allen

Records Double-Double in Game 5 Win
De'Von Achane

a Dynasty Cornerstone
James Harden

Leads the Way for Cavaliers in Game 5 Victory
Quinn Hughes

Finishes Postseason With 15 Points
Matt Boldy

Posts Two Assists in Season-Ending Loss
Scott Wedgewood

Perfect in Relief Effort
Martin Necas

Records Another Multi-Point Game
Brett Kulak

Sends Avalanche Into Conference Finals
Brayden McNabb

Suspended for One Game
Cal Raleigh

Exits With Apparent Side Injury on Wednesday Night
Juan Soto

X-Rays Come Back Negative on Juan Soto's Ankle
Jacob Misiorowski

Pulled Early With Possible Leg Injury
Juan Soto

Exits Wednesday's Game Early with Ankle Injury
Tim Patrick

Jets Agree to Terms With Veteran Receiver Tim Patrick
Kevin Huerter

is Cleared to Return for Game 5
Caris LeVert

is Available for Game 5 on Wednesday
Duncan Robinson

is Out for Game 5
Keegan Murray

Undergoes Ankle Procedure
Josh Giddey

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Pete Fairbanks

Returns From Injured List
Christian Yelich

Out With Back Tightness on Wednesday Night
Nathan MacKinnon

Chasing History Wednesday
Ryan Poehling

Won't Be an Option for Game 6
Sam Malinski

Set to Miss Second Straight Game
Artturi Lehkonen

Unlikely to Play Wednesday
Matthew Schaefer

Wins Calder Trophy
TOR

Maple Leafs Fire Head Coach Craig Berube
Robby Snelling

Placed on 15-Day Injured List with Elbow Sprain
Francisco Alvarez

Mets Place Francisco Alvarez on Injured List With Torn Meniscus
Max Fried

Dealing With Left Elbow Posterior Soreness
CFB

NFL Veteran Tom Moore Joins Iowa Coaching Staff
CFB

Can Cam Cook Dominate in Return to Big 12?
CFB

ACC, Big 12 Support 24-Team College Football Playoff
CFB

Anthony Colandrea Looking to Elevate Nebraska Back to National Contention
CFB

Kwazi Gilmer Set for Big Impact at Nebraska
Justin Thomas

Trending Well Ahead of PGA Championship Despite Concerning Form
J.J. Spaun

Trending Up Ahead of PGA Championship
Adam Scott

Riding Strong Form Into PGA Championship
Patrick Reed

Looking to Make Another Run at PGA Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Looks to Build on Strong Finish at Truist Championship
Sam Burns

Must Keep Ball in Play at PGA Championship
Jordan Spieth

Looks to Complete Career Grand Slam at Aronimink
Brandt Snedeker

Not the Best Option for the PGA Championship
Rasmus Hojgaard

a Volatile Option at PGA Championship
Ayo Dosunmu

Has Busy Night in Game 5
Maverick McNealy

Seeking Better Start in Philadelphia
Harry Hall

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Aronimink
Jaden McDaniels

Notches 17 Points in Game 5 Loss
Hideki Matsuyama

Attempts to Improve Over 2025 PGA Championship
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Defend PGA Championship at Aronimink
Julius Randle

Posts a Double-Double in Losing Effort
Nicolai Hojgaard

Wants to Keep Momentum Rolling in Philadelphia
Anthony Edwards

Held to 20 Points in Game 5 Loss
Ben Griffin

Attempting to Bounce Back After Truist Championship
CFB

Transfer Defensive Lineman Devarrick Woods Commits to Clemson
Keldon Johnson

Comes Alive in Game 5 Against Timberwolves
Harris English

Will Need His Putter to Thrive at Aronimink
Stephon Castle

Makes All-Around Impact in Game 5
Victor Wembanyama

Leads Spurs to Big Win in Game 5
Akshay Bhatia

Creative Flair Could Show Itself in Philadelphia
Keegan Bradley

Knows the Aronimink Golf Club Well
Mason McTavish

Delivers Two Assists Tuesday Night
Pavel Dorofeyev

Pots Two Goals in Vital Game 5 Win
Josh Doan

Records Two Assists in Game 4 Victory
Evgeni Malkin

Penguins Want Evgeni Malkin Back
Sidney Crosby

Joins Team Canada for World Championship
Ryan Poehling

Suffers Upper-Body Injury in Game 5 Loss
Si Woo Kim

Struggles at Truist Championship
Gary Woodland

Can Continue Incredible 2026 Season at PGA Championship
Xander Schauffele

In Excellent Form Heading to PGA Championship
Brandon Nimmo

Leaves Game on Tuesday with Apparent Ankle Injury
Philadelphia 76ers

76ers Part Ways With Daryl Morey
Kevin Huerter

Iffy for Game 5 Against Cavaliers
Charlie McAvoy

Slapped With Six-Game Suspension
Jonas Brodin

Unavailable for Game 5 Against Avalanche
Joel Eriksson Ek

to Remain Out Wednesday
Jacob Wilson

A's Place Jacob Wilson on Injured List With Shoulder Subluxation
Christian Yelich

Brewers Reinstate Christian Yelich From Injured List
CFB

Isaac Brown Has All-American Upside in 2026
CFB

Nyck Harbor Heading into Breakout Year?
CFB

Notre Dame, USC in Discussions to Resume Rivalry Series
CFB

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Has Eyes on ACC Title
CFB

Ahmad Hardy's Gunshot Wound Not Viewed as Career-Threatening
A.J. Ewing

Mets to Call Up Top Prospect A.J. Ewing
Mookie Betts

is Officially Back on Monday
Nathan Eovaldi

Scratched From Monday's Start With Side Tightness
Henry Bolte

Athletics to Promote Top Outfield Prospect Henry Bolte to Major Leagues
Khamzat Chimaev

Suffers his First Loss
Sean Strickland

Recaptures Middleweight Title
Tatsuro Taira

Suffers Fifth-Round TKO Loss
Joshua Van

Defends Flyweight Title
MMA

Waldo Cortes-Acosta Drops Decision
Alexander Volkov

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Shane Van Gisbergen

Dominates Watkins Glen for First Win of 2026
Michael McDowell

Finishes Second for Best Run of the Year At Watkins Glen
Ty Gibbs

Scores New Career-Best Finish of Third at Watkins Glen
Tyler Reddick

Continues His Strong Season With Fifth-Place Run at Watkins Glen
Austin Dillon

Earns his First Top-10 Finish of 2026 at Watkins Glen
Mookie Betts

Dodgers Expect Mookie Betts to Return on Monday
CFB

Ahmad Hardy Sustains Gunshot Wound, in Stable Condition
Connor Zilisch

Will Start Fifth in his First Watkins Glen Cup Series Race
Tyler Reddick

Is A Top DFS Option for Watkins Glen Lineups
Christopher Bell

Is Likely to Bounce Back This Week at Watkins Glen
Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodon Activated for Season Debut on Sunday
William Byron

Is William Byron Playable in DFS Lineups at Watkins Glen?
Kyle Larson

May have A Positive Day at Watkins Glen
Chase Briscoe

May Compete for A Top-10 Finish at Watkins Glen
NASCAR

A.J. Allmendinger May have Another Solid Outing at Watkins Glen
Ty Gibbs

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Watkins Glen?
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain Worth Rostering for Watkins Glen Lineups?
Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Watkins Glen?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite at Watkins Glen
Chase Elliott

Is Chase Elliott a No-Brainer DFS Pick at Watkins Glen?
Chris Buescher

Qualifies 14th at Watkins Glen
Ryan Blaney

Has Upside at Watkins Glen After Signing Contract Extension
Michael McDowell

Still Searching for First Top-Five Finish at Watkins Glen
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar Too Aggressive for Road-Course Racing?
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF