TAP FOR 6 MONTHS OF PREMIUM FREE 💰
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champs or Chumps: Aaron Nola & Jon Gray

When streaming starting pitchers, there are generally two criteria to choose the best option. The first is the quality of the opposition, as a lesser offense is less likely to hurt your ratios. The second is venue, as fantasy owners look to maximize innings in Kansas City and Miami while avoiding Coors Field like the plague.

The latter point is why Rockies arms are seldom rostered in standard leagues. The same is true to a lesser degree of other hitter-friendly stadiums, such as Philadelphia and Texas. Bad parks can be overcome, however. Pitchers who tame a hostile home offer serious profit potential, as many owners refuse to even consider them on Draft Day. With this upside in mind, let's see if sophomores Aaron Nola and Jonathan Gray are viable fantasy options.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Aaron Nola (SP, PHI) ADP: 172.7

Nola's 2016 was ugly by surface stats, as he posted a 6-9 record and 4.78 ERA. His 3.08 FIP suggests that he deserved far better, a point his identical 3.08 xFIP agrees with. Nola had problems with BABIP (.334) and strand rate (60.6 percent) last season, both of which can be expected to regress toward the league average rate going forward. The biggest problem with pitching in Philly is the long ball, and Nola has it under control.

That might seem weird to say when his HR/FB was right on the league average last year (12.8 percent), but Nola does not limit homers by relying on weak contact. Instead, he controls them by limiting fly balls. Batters managed a FB% of just 24.8 percent against Nola last year thanks primarily to a two-seam fastball with a 61.6 percent GB%. Fantasy owners usually don't love two-seamers, but Nola's is required to pitch effectively in his home park.

The two-seamer only had a SwStr% of 3.1 percent last year, but Nola still put up a sexy 25.1 percent strikeout rate. He managed this with two plus strikeout offerings: a curve (19 percent SwStr%, 45.9 percent chase rate) and a change (12.7 percent SwStr%, 42.2 percent chase). Two plus pitches are usually enough to sustain strong strikeout rates, so Nola figures to contribute in the category in 2017 despite lacking a big heater (5 percent SwStr%).

Wins may be hard to come by on a rebuilding club, but Nola offers the strikeout and ratio upside to help in all formats regardless. If your league counts QS instead of wins, he could be an SP2 this year. Nola offers tremendous value for his current draft price.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jon Gray (SP, COL) ADP: 187.7

Gray's season was a lot like Nola's in that his surface stats (4.61 ERA) were garbage while the underlying metrics (3.60 FIP, 26 percent strikeout rate) were a lot better. He also managed a league average HR/FB, a significant accomplishment for a Coors hurler.

Unlike Citizens Bank Park, Coors Field is not a pitcher torture chamber just because of homers. Stadiums like Arlington are just as bad in terms of home runs allowed. Coors differentiates itself with its thin air and spacious outfield, preventing breaking balls from breaking, sinkers from sinking, and any but the fastest outfielders from catching routine flies.

Gray has the repertoire to meet the Coors challenge. He doesn't throw a sinker or two-seamer, relying instead on a 95-mph fastball that plays anywhere. Its solid 6.8 percent SwStr% ably sets up an absolutely filthy slider (24.1 percent SwStr%, 48.9 percent chase) and competent change (13 percent SwStr%, 38.9 percent chase). His curve is mediocre (10 percent SwStr%, 22.2 percent chase) so it probably gets scrapped soon. The fastball-changeup-slider combination is probably a pitcher's best bet at mitigating the effects of altitude.

Don't shy away from Gray on Draft Day because of his home address. Gray offers strikeout upside and breakout potential that it is tough to find in his current draft slot. The Rockies are an interesting sleeper team for wins this year, and you can always bench him during home stands if you need to. At worst, Gray seems like the ultimate streaming option with upside for much more.

Verdict: Champ




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Patrick Cantlay

Still Plagued by Bad Putting Ahead of Arnold Palmer Invititational
Daniel Jones

Colts Expected to Use Transition Tag on Daniel Jones
Thomas White

Marlins Reassign Thomas White to Minor-League Camp
Breece Hall

Jets Placing Franchise Tag on Breece Hall
Max Scherzer

Completely Past his Thumb Issues
CFB

Mark Stoops Joining Texas Coaching Staff
Francisco Lindor

Plays Catch, Hopes to Take BP on Wednesday
Mike Burrows

Looking Strong in Early Spring Action
Garrett Crochet

Is an Elite Anchor for Your Rotation
Casey Mize

Can Be a Late-Round Value Pick
Nick Seeler

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Versus Maple Leafs
Daylen Lile

Can Be a Great Outfield Sleeper
Andrew Painter

Headed for Opening Day Roster?
Pierre-Olivier Joseph

Injured in Monday's Loss
Giancarlo Stanton

Will Make His Spring Training Debut on Tuesday
Joel Armia

Moved to Injured Reserve
Artturi Lehkonen

Set to Miss Time After Getting Hurt Monday
Shea Theodore

Iffy for Tuesday Due to Illness
Mitchell Marner

Dealing With Illness
Mark Stone

Considered Day-to-Day
Jason Day

Attempts to Bounce Back from The Genesis Invitational
Santi Aldama

Questionable Tuesday
Cedric Coward

Could Return Tuesday
Jacob Bridgeman

Rolling into Arnold Palmer Invitational
Ty Jerome

Could Miss Third Straight Game
Davion Mitchell

Iffy to Face Nets
Norman Powell

Misses Second Consecutive Game
Anthony Black

Likely to Return Tuesday
Klay Thompson

Questionable Tuesday
Russell Henley

Looks to Defend Title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Max Scherzer

Could Make Grapefruit League Debut This Weekend
Alex DeBrincat

Collects Two More Points
Andrew Benintendi

Should be Back on Thursday
Kirill Marchenko

Earns Three Points on Monday
Nicolai Hojgaard

Continues to Search for First PGA Tour Victory at API
Xander Bogaerts

the Leading Candidate to Hit Leadoff for Padres
Shane Lowry

Trying to Shake Off Last Week's Heartbreak at the API
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Moving to Middle of the Batting Order?
Kyle Stowers

Doing Baseball Activities, to Start Running Progression Soon
Matt Fitzpatrick

Continues Scorching Start to 2026 Season
Keegan Bradley

Searching for Better Results Heading to Bay Hill
Cedric Mullins

Goes Deep for First Time in Rays Uniform
Jac Caglianone

Looking Good at the Plate So Far This Spring
Isaac Paredes

Homers in Spring Debut
Logan Webb

to Start WBC Opener for Team USA on Friday
Tarik Skubal

Scheduled to Throw Around 55 Pitches Against Great Britain
Kyle Freeland

to Make Spring Debut on Wednesday
P.J. Washington

Questionable vs. Hornets
Dairon Blanco

Designated for Assignment by Royals
Egor Demin

to Miss Second Straight Game
Nicolas Claxton

Expected to Play on Tuesday
Coby White

Ruled Out vs. Dallas
Collin Murray-Boyles

to Miss Second Straight Game
Naji Marshall

Unavailable Versus Charlotte
Donovan Mitchell

Out Tuesday vs. Detroit
Cooper Flagg

Listed as Doubtful for Tuesday Night
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Ruled Out for Tuesday's Matchup With Bulls
Isaiah Hartenstein

to Miss Game Against Bulls
Anthony Gill

Out, Julian Reese Set to Start Monday
Kris Dunn

Available On Monday Against Warriors
John Collins

Sidelined vs. Warriors
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Set to Suit Up Monday
Trevor Moore

Unavailable Monday
Drew Doughty

Could Return Thursday
Roope Hintz

Misses Third Consecutive Game
Zach Werenski

Iffy for Monday's Action
Travis Konecny

a Game-Time Decision Monday
John Gibson

Exits Win Early
Connor Murphy

Moving to Edmonton
Khalil Mack

Will Play in 2026
MMA

Lone'er Kavanagh Gets Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno

Gets Outclassed
Marlon Vera

Loses Fourth Fight In A Row
Daniel Jones

Colts Have "50/50" Chance to Get a Deal Done With Daniel Jones
David Martinez

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Daniel Zellhuber

Loses Third Consecutive Fight
King Green

Gets Second-Round TKO Win
Felipe Bunes

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Édgar Cháirez

Edgar Chairez Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ryan Blaney

Falls to Eighth Despite Running Most of the Race in the Top Five At COTA
Ty Gibbs

Wins A Stage and Finishes Fourth At COTA
Christopher Bell

Earns First Top-Five Finish of the 2026 Season at COTA
Kyler Murray

"Repeatedly" Linked to Jets
Shane Van Gisbergen

Falls Short of Victory At COTA
Tyler Reddick

Wins At COTA and Makes NASCAR History
David Montgomery

Texans Acquire David Montgomery From Lions
Lukas Dostal

Sets New Career High With 24th Win
Cutter Gauthier

Hits Two Goals in Shootout Win
Robert Thomas

Returns to Action With Multi-Point Effort
Matthew Tkachuk

Dishes Out Three Assists Sunday
Matthew Schaefer

Has First Three-Point Outing
Kyler Murray

Likely to be Released
Travis Etienne Jr.

Not Expected to be Franchise-Tagged
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Planning to Release Aaron Jones Sr.?
Tyler Reddick

Could Make History at COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Still the Favorite at COTA
Christopher Bell

Will Be Tough to Beat at COTA
AJ Allmendinger

Could Contend at COTA
Connor Zilisch

Carries Plenty of Upside for DFS at COTA
Chase Elliott

May be A Strong Contender Again at COTA
Chris Buescher

Is Nothing But Consistent at Road Courses
Ross Chastain

May Be An Underrated Competitor for the Win at COTA
William Byron

Is William Byron a Viable DFS Option for COTA?
Carson Hocevar

Needs Clean Race at COTA
Kyle Larson

Could be A Decent DFS Option for COTA Lineups
Ryan Blaney

Could Ryan Blaney be A Sleeper DFS Option for All Formats for COTA?
Chase Briscoe

Should DFS Players Roster Chase Briscoe at COTA?
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Is A Favorable Value Option for COTA DFS Lineups
Ty Gibbs

Could Ty Gibbs Be A Rosterable DFS Play for COTA?
Michael McDowell

Is Michael McDowell A Favorable DFS Option for COTA?
A.J. Brown

Patriots "Have Explored Trade Talks" Involving A.J. Brown
Lone'er Kavanagh

Set For UFC Mexico City Main Event
Brandon Moreno

Looks To Bounce Back
David Martinez

Set For UFC Mexico City Co-Main Event
Marlon Vera

In Dire Need Of Victory
King Green

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Zellhuber

Aims To Snap Two-Fight Skid
Felipe Bunes

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Édgar Cháirez

Edgar Chairez A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
George Pickens

Cowboys Not Interested in Trading George Pickens
Ashton Jeanty

Not in Line for Workhorse Role in 2026?
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Colts Give Anthony Richardson Sr. Permission to Seek a Trade
Kyler Murray

Prefers to be Released
Derek Carr

"Strong Belief" That Derek Carr is "Very Serious" About Unretiring
Andy Dalton

Is Andy Dalton Available for a Trade?
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF