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The Cleveland Browns have been the most active franchise thus far in the free agency period, and that continued on Wednesday when they signed former San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde to a three-year, 15 million-dollar contract.
Hyde, a second-round draft pick in 2014, will fill the void left by the departure of starting running back Isaiah Crowell, and is a perfect compliment to Duke Johnson. But how will the move affect Hyde's and Johnson's fantasy value respectively in 2018?
Let's dig into the numbers and find out.
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Carlos Hyde the Runner
Hyde was drafted to be an early-down runner, amassing just 34 catches during his four year college career at Ohio State. Standing six feet tall and weighing 235 pounds, he is the prototypical big back. In the last two seasons in which Hyde was relatively healthy, he ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (Yco/Att) in 2016 but then dipped all the way down to 18th in 2017, averaging a full half yard less per attempt. Coincidentally, his numbers are very similar to the man he is replacing, Isaiah Crowell. Here is a look at each the last two seasons:
2016: Isaiah Crowell 3.18 Yco/Att, Carlos Hyde 3.05 Yco/Att
2017: Isaiah Crowell 2.63 Yco/Att, Carlos Hyde 2.53 Yco/Att
If we're going to try to predict Hyde's efficiency in this offense, Crowell is probably a good baseline. In 2017, Crowell was better than most gave him credit for, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt (Hyde averaged 3.9 with the 49ers). Unfortunately, he only carried the ball 206 times as the 2017 Browns were playing from behind often. Meanwhile, Hyde saw 240 carries with a slightly better Niners team. The Browns have made some major improvements thus far, and it is hard to envision them not winning at least four or five games. That should help Hyde get close to that 240 carry number again.
Hyde should also get a slight boost from this Browns offensive line. The team added right tackle Chris Hubbard in free agency, though it should be noted Hubbard was a much better pass blocker than run blocker in 2017. Unfortunately, they lost future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas who recently announced his retirement. As of now that void will be filled by Spencer Drango, who graded very poorly in both run and pass blocking. Of course, the Browns will likely pursue a replacement either via the draft or free agency/trade, and even with Thomas' departure this is a better line than the one Hyde ran behind in San Francisco. Left guard Joel Bitonio, center J.C. Tretter, and right guard Kevin Zeitler all graded quite well in the run. Depending on who they get to replace Thomas, this could be one of the league's best offensive lines.
The last factor to consider is usage in the red zone and near the goal line. Crowell only managed two rushing touchdowns in 2017, but that was mainly a product of his offense giving him very little opportunity to score. He saw just five carries from inside the five yard line. To put that in perspective, that was the same number as Tyrod Taylor, and just one more than Kirk Cousins, and they are quarterbacks! Meanwhile, Hyde had plenty of opportunities to score as he saw 16 carries from within the five, second only to Todd Gurley's 18. Hyde was able to score on eight of his 16 attempts, right around league average. Even though the Browns offense should be better, expecting Hyde to see another 16 carries from inside the five seems very optimistic. Therefore, we should probably expect eight rushing touchdowns to be at or close to his ceiling and should project him for slightly less.
Combining all these factors - usage, offensive line, and goal line opportunities - we can get a better idea of what to expect from Hyde in terms of rushing numbers. Assuming he sees another 240 carries, and improves his yards per carry a half yard (no small feat) we're looking at 1,056 rushing yards. More than respectable. Assuming a drop in goal line opportunities to 12, which would still rank in the top 10, six touchdowns sounds like a solid number. That would be 141.6 fantasy points in a standard or PPR league. That is almost identical to what he had in 2017 with San Francisco, were he had 141.8 fantasy points from his rushing numbers. That seems about right as this feels like a lateral move for Hyde in the rushing department.
Carlos Hyde the Receiver
2017 was a breakout year for Hyde in the receiving game, as he set career highs in both targets (88) and receptions (59). To put that in perspective in his previous three years COMBINED he had just 64 targets and 50 catches. Keep in mind, however, that he was playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense that features running backs heavily in the passing game, and he had very little competition in that regard. Now he will be joining a backfield with Duke Johnson, who saw 93 targets and caught 74 passes for the Browns. Hyde is the perfect compliment to Johnson, but that is the problem. He will no longer be the main passing game weapon among his team's running backs.
If we go back to Crowell, he saw just 42 targets and caught only 28 passes. And remember before the part about Hyde not being a good pass catcher? In 2017 of 55 running backs who saw at least 25% of their teams running back targets, Hyde ranked 50th in drop rate at 13.24 percent. Meanwhile Crowell was 14th and dropped just 3.45 percent, while Johnson was 19th and dropped just 3.9 percent. It's unlikely Hyde will even catch 30 passes unless Johnson suffers an injury (Hyde's previous career high was 27 receptions). Hyde is also very inefficient when he does catch the ball, averaging just 5.9 yards per reception in 2017 and 5.8 for his career. Compare that to Johnson who has never been worse than 8.8 yards per reception in a season.
These factors spell trouble for Hyde in the passing game, and that spells trouble for his fantasy value. Keep in mind he scored 94 points in PPR formats just from the receiving game. If he can hit 30 receptions, which seems like his ceiling, and manage six yards per reception (something he's only done once), we're looking at 48 PPR points. That's basically half of his receiving points lost. Sure, maybe he could add a touchdown or two, but that still isn't enough to overcome the 46 point loss. And that is best case scenario.
While Hyde should do fine in Cleveland, and the Browns offense should be better than it was in 2017, it's still hard to see him surpassing or even equaling what he did last season when he finished as RB8 in PPR formats. If he loses just 40 PPR points in the receiving game he would have fallen from RB8 to RB17, sandwiched right between Lamar Miller and Jerick McKinnon. And that seems about the range, RB15-17, a solid RB2.
What About Duke Johnson?
The Hyde signing was a good thing for Johnson owners, as it means there is very little chance the Browns will draft Saquon Barkley with one of the first four picks. While we likely shouldn't expect another 94 target season, especially with the Browns adding one of the league's best slot receivers in Jarvis Landry, Johnson should still see somewhere around 70-75 targets. In his first two years he had 74 each, so that seems like a solid estimate. I still think he has low end RB2 value in PPR formats, especially in an offense that should give him more scoring opportunities, and he is one of the best "handcuffs" as he will inherit plenty of carries should Hyde get hurt. Just don't expect another RB12 season from him in 2018.
Overall both Hyde and Johnson should be solid fantasy contributors on a Browns team that seems ready to finally improve. In recent best ball drafts, Hyde has been going as the 18th running back off the board and Johnson as the 23rd. I think that is fair value for both and still leaves room for upside for either.
