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One of the hardest things to do in fantasy baseball for players and contributors alike is to project playing time.
Games played, plate appearances, and at-bats are the basis on which we project hits, home runs, walks, and all the various counting stats that make up various fantasy baseball formats. It is where rate stats are converted into a quantifiable number. Yet, it is much more difficult to project playing time from some players than it is for others.
Two perfect examples of this constant issue are Byron Buxton and Adalberto Mondesi. Let's compare the two to see which talented but injury-riddled player is a better gamble on draft day.
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Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins - 68.56 ADP
The Minnesota Twins outfielder represents one of the rarest skill sets in all of baseball. He brings elite speed, premier defense, a good batting average, and solid power. In 2021, Buxton managed to produce a .306 AVG/.358 OBP/.647 SLG good for a 169 wRC+ which means he performed at a rate 69% above average (avg is 100 for wRC+). Yet, his various injuries limited him to just 254 plate appearances and he has only topped 400 plate appearances once since 2015. Buxton represents one of the longest injury histories in the sport.
Buxton’s extensive injury history represents a problem but it isn’t the only one in his profile. 2021 was by far his best production yet and now he will be 27 years old heading into a contract year. That only incentivizes both Buxton and the Twins to limit scenarios where he could reinjure himself, such as on the basepaths. Furthermore, the Twins seem to be heading towards a minor rebuild which means Buxton will be surrounded by fewer quality players than he has been in recent history. If Buxton is traded by the Twins to a contender that could boost his value but that is not something we can accurately foresee.
When healthy, Buxton has shown an MVP-caliber skill set that would be on display for the world to see if he could remain healthy for an entire season.
Adalberto Mondesi, Kansas City Royals - 53.63 ADP
The Kansas City Royals infielder is similar to Buxton in many ways but he can not replicate his production. In 2021, Mondesi managed a .230 AVG/.271 OBP/.452 SLG good for a 91 wRC+. His value comes almost solely from his stolen bases as he has 128 stolen bases in just 343 career games. However, he too can not stay on the field as he was limited to 136 plate appearances in 2021 and has not topped 400 plate appearances more than once. Similar to Buxton, Mondesi has a long injury history but without the production to make up for it. Mondesi does bring steals but has only topped a 100 wRC+ once and his positional eligibility at SS and possibly 3B make him significantly less valuable.
Where Mondesi may have an edge on Buxton is overall context. Unlike Buxton, Mondesi is extremely unlikely to change teams at any point this season. Furthermore, the Royals are far more likely to add better talent around him than the Twins are with Buxton. Finally, Mondesi hits in the 10th most hitter-friendly park in baseball while Minnesota is 18th and the Royals are less likely to limit his playing time.
The biggest contextual concern I have with Mondesi is that the Royals may try to limit his stolen base attempts in an effort to limit his chances of re-injuring himself. His fantasy value is entirely predicated on his stolen bases and if the Royals decide to limit that in any way then Mondesi will be a drop candidate everywhere.
Comparison
Both Buxton and Mondesi represent massive ceiling but below-average floor at their respective ADPs but the clear favorite between the two is Buxton. Mondesi has only topped a 100 wRC+ once in his six-year career while Buxton has done it in each of the last three seasons. If Buxton can maintain his 2021 production, he has top-25 fantasy player upside while Mondesi has almost zero chance of reaching that ceiling.
While Mondesi’s context is better than what surrounds Buxton, I am much more inclined to take the higher upside and higher floor play in Buxton than to take a chance and hope Mondesi runs as much as he can. Tyler O'Neill, Randy Arozarena, Max Muncy, and Carlos Correa all have similar ADPs and all should rank ahead of Mondesi.
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