BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~ 100
CURRENT ADP: ~145 overall
ANALYSIS: Look, the injury woes are baked into the projection here. “The market” may have additional trepidation, but 10 HR/14 SB in only 87 games (295 PAs) last year underscores Byron Buxton's potential. That's without even considering his place in a stacked Minnesota lineup. Systems like THE BAT and Depth Charts are even more bullish on Buxton’s power, with his plus speed respected across the board.
Even with some give on batting average, you’re scooping a sizable increase in the other four categories. After posting average exit velocities around 85-86 MPH with a launch angle orbiting 12-13 degrees from 2016-18, those figures jumped to 89.3 MPH and 19.5 degrees in ‘19.
Not only did the hard-hit rate jump from 27% to 38.7%, but his strikeouts fell from 29.8% to 23.1%. And of course, his sprint speeds over the past five years have checked in at first, first, second, first, and third. Now at 30.3 ft/sec instead of 2015’s 30.9 mark, this is not an aging curve to fear in 2020. Those who are "out" on Buxton may want to reconsider at this cost.
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