X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Buyer Beware? Slow Starts and Waiver Wire Options for Fantasy Baseball (Week 6)

Yusei Kikuchi fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news waiver wire pitchers

Blake's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 6 (2023), and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of their hot streaks?

I've got to be honest with you guys, I enjoy writing this article much more than I expected I would. Not because I enjoy raining on people's parades. Not because I enjoy wishing for a player's demise. I enjoy it because, for me, the research that goes into this is much different than my usual.

Finding trends that point to a player's success can be easy once you've been doing it for a while. Guys like Jarred Kelenic and Yandy Diaz have made adjustments that point to their breakouts both being real and sustainable. Finding those guys who are outproducing has become a game of sorts for me. Digging through player page after player page and analyzing the data is fun. It's just a matter of actually wanting to put in the effort which not everyone does, but that's where I come in handy.

A few of my favorites I've highlighted so far in this series are Nolan Gorman before his current nine-game cold streak and Jose Abreu with his lack of power. That lack of power for Abreu has continued since last week as well. For this week's article I am going to go the route I went last week. Instead of focusing just on waiver wire guys, we're going to cover a mix of waiver wire and rostered players I think are worth thinking twice about before adding them to your roster. Whether they're overproducing their current numbers, face bad upcoming matchups, or are losing their playing time battle, let this list guide you to a winning week.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays

I promise not to let my inner Mariners fan sway my opinion of Kikuchi. I'd be lying if I said he was good when he left Seattle, and I'd be lying if I said he was doing anything this season that made me feel any differently. He did have a hot start to the year in terms of fantasy points. He had been one of the biggest surprises thus far. The problem is he's been vastly outperforming his numbers and hasn't actually made any tangible changes this season.

When I see a pitcher starting the year hot out of nowhere, I like to be able to see some real tangible changes. Whether that be more movement, more velocity, a new pitch mix or what have you. Yusei has done that a bit, lowering his fastball usage to just 38%, but it hasn't been that effective. It still has a .400 BAA while his changeup and slider have seen a usage uptick and yet their xBA are both higher than they were last season.

He's currently 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 4.78 xERA. I'm sure those will both inflate a bit more after his 4.1-inning, five-earned run performance yesterday against Boston. His next starts should tentatively be against Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Milwaukee. Don't let his raw numbers fool you, Kikuchi is nothing more than a streaming option at best.

 

Brandon Drury, Los Angeles Angels

The waiver wire darling of 2022 has been hot as of late for the Angels. Because of that, he's become one of the more popular waiver wire additions once again in 2023. Yes, I'm aware he is still rostered in half the leagues out there (give or take a bit) but whether he's on waivers or on a roster, I'm not buying it.

On the season, Drury has raised his swing rate to 50.6% and, in turn, his zone contact rate has dropped to 77.2%. He's chasing many more pitches this season (37.2%) and whiffing on a lot more as well (31.2%). The recent success that has made him such a popular addition all came against Oakland. In that series, he went 9-15 with four home runs and 12 RBI.

Outside of that Oakland series, Drury has just three doubles, one home run, and five RBI. I know there is still a lot of "once he gets hot he's going to kill it this year" buzz around Drury still but it's not worth it. He's not going to give you the type of production you're hoping for this season and has limited fantasy value currently.

 

Luke Raley, Tampa Bay Rays

Now here's a name I wasn't expecting to need to add to this list but...here we are. I get a lot of start/sit and add/drop messages these days and Raley seems to be a pretty popular topic of conversation. The problem is, he's not even a regular in that Tampa Bay lineup. Even as a platoon guy against righties, he's still only had more than two at-bats in two of the teams' last six games.

What makes him so intriguing is the seven home runs. In his last three games, he's 5-11 with three home runs, four runs scored, and six RBI. Early in the season like this, a couple of big games can really inflate a player's overall numbers. Outside of the playing time, he profiles as an interesting hitter as well. He's in the 29th percentile in xBA, has a 34% strikeout rate, and a whiff rate just shy of 40%. But his power numbers are intriguing. His hard-hit rate (91st percentile), xSLG (92nd), and barrel rate (99th) all point to someone making quality contact.

The one thing Raley isn't doing to capitalize on that power long-term is he's not pulling or elevating the ball. He has an average launch angle of almost 20 degrees but a fly ball rate of just 30.8%. His pull rate is also sub-40%. More playing time and an uptick in his flyball and pull rates would turn Raley into a legitimate power threat. As it sits currently, he's nothing more than a guy who had a couple of good games. Outside of very deep leagues he's probably best suited to stay on the waiver wire.

 

Christian Arroyo, Boston Red Sox

Ok so yes I’m aware his roster percentage isn’t the highest. This is meant to serve as a reminder that despite his recent success, there is no place for Arroyo on your fantasy roster. Now in a 12-team, AL-only league…sure. In normal leagues under 15 teams, look the other way.

This. This is Arroyo’s baseball savant page. He’s currently hitting .245 with a home run and eight RBI. In his last three games, he’s 6-11 with that one home run, a double, and four runs scored. If you had him rostered during that stretch I’m sure you’re happy. Still, Arroyo is a weak side platoon with an xBA of .190 which is not ideal.

Low xBA, an average exit velocity of just 86.1 MPH, and a hard hit rate that makes JP Crawford look like Aaron Judge. Combine those with the playing time concerns and you have the makings of a player on a hot streak you can avoid.

 

Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays

Would you look at that - a second Blue Jay in this piece? Also the first guy on the list with a fairly high roster rate. I was expecting to have a couple more but I guess this is how the article shook itself out this week.

Varsho is a guy who was a consensus top-three catcher coming into 2023. And it was well deserved. He’s fresh off a 27-home run 16-steal season that not many catchers have the ability to string together. For as good as he was in those categories last year, he’s been shaky to start this season. Your bad numbers get forced into the spotlight when the good ones are no longer cutting it.

He’s currently hitting .198 with a .625 OPS. He’s got three home runs, nine RBI, and five stolen bases. I’ll give him some credit, the stolen base output has been good, but a third of his home runs and RBI came in the game he just played on Tuesday. He currently has just five barrels on the season and an average exit velocity of 85.5 MPH. That drops him into the sixth percentile.

With stolen bases being more prevalent this year, I’m not sure how much of a differentiator those are for Varsho at this point. The low batting average can be overlooked if he’s over-performing in other areas, but when he’s average to below average in the power department there’s legitimate cause for concern. Varsho may very well turn things around at some point, but for right now I see too many red flags to leave him off my buyer-beware list.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF