Buyer Beware? Evaluating Slow Starts and Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Options

April 27, 2023

Blake's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 5 (2023), and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leary of their hot streaks?

We are back for another week of raining on people's waiver wire parade. Okay, that might be a bit harsh, but if you've read this article before then you'll understand. It's not necessarily as much raining on people's parade as it is trying to offer unbiased rationale as to why that shiny new roster addition may not end up going as well as you'd hoped. I'm honestly not even telling you guys not to pick these people up. Sometimes it's just nice to have a differing opinion on someone so you can weigh the pros and cons before you decide to pull the trigger.

As silly as it may be to think about, the fantasy baseball players you roster are essentially your "assets". In the world of buying, selling, and trading "assets" it's important to thoroughly process every potential transaction before you make it. Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of waiver wire guys worth an add. It's just important to understand when someone has made real improvements and when someone is just on a hot streak.

If riding hot streaks is your thing, good for you. It can be a viable strategy in daily leagues as long as you are consistently monitoring your players and cutting bait at the first sign of regression. It's tough, though, and really not a strategy that'll win you a championship. When making moves you need to be thinking two steps ahead. So with that being said, here's the list of guys you shouldn't necessarily avoid, but should be cautious of moving forward.

Matt Carpenter, San Diego Padres

About the only thing Matt Carpenter really has going for him at this point is that sweet, sweet mustache he's rocking. He did have a power resurgence of sorts in 2022 but don't expect that to be something we see this season. Through 18 games thus far, Carpenter has four doubles and three home runs. Not all that bad. The problem lies in the fact that the is essentially just strictly a platoon bat against righties at this point, and he's really not even hitting righties very well.

In 37 ABs against right-handed hurlers this season, Carpenter is batting just .216 with a 29.8% strikeout rate. His high walk rate has helped him to a nice .910 OPS against righties, but it's not enough. In the Padres' last nine games, Carpenter has gotten four plate appearances in a game just three times. He did just have that big game going 3-4 with two doubles, a home run, and five RBI, but don't expect that output moving forward. If you want to make a speculative add and see if this is him getting hot, go for it, but just be prepared when he sits more than he plays.

Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins

Ok so I know he's really not available on anyone's waiver wire, and shouldn't be just yet, but I want to take this article in a bit of a different direction. Instead of just waiver-wire guys, I want to highlight some guys we may be thinking of as "Buy Low" candidates that should probably be avoided. Carlos Correa and his 70's porn stache is exactly that.

In 2022 he had a seemingly good year. His power numbers left much to be desired with 24 doubles and 22 home runs, but he still hit for a .291 average and .833 OPS. The issue with Correa is that outside of his 2021 season, and maybe 2016, he's never really been...great. He's been good, but he's become the epitome of a guy that was overdrafted based on name value. So this 2023 season shouldn't really come as a surprise.

Weirdly enough, he's swinging at just 53.4% of pitches in the strike zone which is the lowest of his career by nearly 10%. He also has an above-average chase rate of 29.2%. Honestly, it feels like he doesn't have a good grasp of the strike zone like he traditionally does. He currently sports a .205 average, .226 xBA, 87.9 average exit velocity (the worst of his career), and his 40.4% hard-hit rate is the lowest of his career. Until he shows he's going to swing at more in the zone and chase fewer pitches, I'm very wary of his fantasy value.

Elias Diaz, Colorado Rockies

Diaz is a player I've been asked about quite frequently lately when it comes to adding a catcher. There is a major part of me that wants to tell everyone "Yes!" because Coors Field is so damn good to hitters. The problem lies within the fact that away from Coors, much like everyone else, Diaz has proven himself to be but a mere mortal.

On the surface, there's a ton to love. He's got a .329 batting average, a 43.6% hard-hit rate and he strikes out just 20% of the time. In ESPN standard scoring leagues, Diaz is the sixth-ranked catcher. Almost all of the damage he's done, though, has come at home. In his nine home games, Diaz is hitting .429 with two doubles and both of his home runs. In 12 games on the road, he's hitting .262 with three doubles and no home runs.

Overall his home/road splits are going to limit his value moving forward, especially when his .400 BABIP regresses back to around his career .279, although maybe it doesn't get that low. If you want to roster him and play him during weeks where he plays the majority at Coors, I love it. But avoid road games at all costs.

Jose Abreu, Houston Astros

For me, the "His 15 home runs in 2022 were just a fluke. He's going to a way better lineup, and his 2023 is going to be way better" facade has worn off. At what point do we just come to terms with the fact that Abreu had himself a good run, but father time has claimed another one? I honestly think we're there.

Dating back to July 1st of 2022, Abreu has hit just six home runs. That's 463 plate appearances. While he has hit .306 with 24 doubles in that same timeframe, it's hard justifying why a guy known for power at a power-hitting position is still worth a roster spot.

His average exit velocity is currently 86.7 MPH, down almost 6% from last season and the lowest of his career. His 6.9% barrel rate, .242 xBA, .367 xSLG, 36.1% hard-hit rate, and 23.8% strikeout rates are also the worst of his career by far as well. Not to mention he's chasing the most pitches of his career at 35.5%. He's not going to go the entire season without hitting a home run, but at this rate, he may not hit more than 10-12 which would be a disappointment.

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

Coming into the season Henderson was a rookie of the year frontrunner with flaws. We loved the talent but his inability to hit left-handed pitching was something talked about but not nearly enough, especially in the fantasy baseball world and especially for a guy who’d never hit above .200 against lefties in the minors outside of a 25 AB sample in 2019.

Now in 2023, those flaws have come to light in a major way. He’s hitting just .125 with a .489 OPS against lefties. That isn’t his only major flaw, though. Henderson also lost the ability to hit breaking pitches as well.

104 breaking pitches have been thrown to Henderson across 23 at-bats. He has a whopping .000 batting average off of them and his .091 xBA suggests it’s not bad luck. He also sports a healthy 56.7% whiff rate against them as well. While he may eat against fastballs (.300 BA), the slow breakers are his kryptonite.

He does still have value in fantasy leagues. Dynasty, keeper, AL-only, or 15-team & larger leagues should be rostering Henderson. Other than that, it’s tough to justify. He looks like a guy that needs more time in the minor leagues and when that happens, his fantasy value drops drastically.

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