X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Buyer Beware? Evaluating Slow Starts and Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Options

carlos correa fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Blake's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 5 (2023), and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leary of their hot streaks?

We are back for another week of raining on people's waiver wire parade. Okay, that might be a bit harsh, but if you've read this article before then you'll understand. It's not necessarily as much raining on people's parade as it is trying to offer unbiased rationale as to why that shiny new roster addition may not end up going as well as you'd hoped. I'm honestly not even telling you guys not to pick these people up. Sometimes it's just nice to have a differing opinion on someone so you can weigh the pros and cons before you decide to pull the trigger.

As silly as it may be to think about, the fantasy baseball players you roster are essentially your "assets". In the world of buying, selling, and trading "assets" it's important to thoroughly process every potential transaction before you make it. Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of waiver wire guys worth an add. It's just important to understand when someone has made real improvements and when someone is just on a hot streak.

If riding hot streaks is your thing, good for you. It can be a viable strategy in daily leagues as long as you are consistently monitoring your players and cutting bait at the first sign of regression. It's tough, though, and really not a strategy that'll win you a championship. When making moves you need to be thinking two steps ahead. So with that being said, here's the list of guys you shouldn't necessarily avoid, but should be cautious of moving forward.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Matt Carpenter, San Diego Padres

About the only thing Matt Carpenter really has going for him at this point is that sweet, sweet mustache he's rocking. He did have a power resurgence of sorts in 2022 but don't expect that to be something we see this season. Through 18 games thus far, Carpenter has four doubles and three home runs. Not all that bad. The problem lies in the fact that the is essentially just strictly a platoon bat against righties at this point, and he's really not even hitting righties very well.

In 37 ABs against right-handed hurlers this season, Carpenter is batting just .216 with a 29.8% strikeout rate. His high walk rate has helped him to a nice .910 OPS against righties, but it's not enough. In the Padres' last nine games, Carpenter has gotten four plate appearances in a game just three times. He did just have that big game going 3-4 with two doubles, a home run, and five RBI, but don't expect that output moving forward. If you want to make a speculative add and see if this is him getting hot, go for it, but just be prepared when he sits more than he plays.

 

Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins

Ok so I know he's really not available on anyone's waiver wire, and shouldn't be just yet, but I want to take this article in a bit of a different direction. Instead of just waiver-wire guys, I want to highlight some guys we may be thinking of as "Buy Low" candidates that should probably be avoided. Carlos Correa and his 70's porn stache is exactly that.

In 2022 he had a seemingly good year. His power numbers left much to be desired with 24 doubles and 22 home runs, but he still hit for a .291 average and .833 OPS. The issue with Correa is that outside of his 2021 season, and maybe 2016, he's never really been...great. He's been good, but he's become the epitome of a guy that was overdrafted based on name value. So this 2023 season shouldn't really come as a surprise.

Weirdly enough, he's swinging at just 53.4% of pitches in the strike zone which is the lowest of his career by nearly 10%. He also has an above-average chase rate of 29.2%. Honestly, it feels like he doesn't have a good grasp of the strike zone like he traditionally does. He currently sports a .205 average, .226 xBA, 87.9 average exit velocity (the worst of his career), and his 40.4% hard-hit rate is the lowest of his career. Until he shows he's going to swing at more in the zone and chase fewer pitches, I'm very wary of his fantasy value.

 

Elias Diaz, Colorado Rockies

Diaz is a player I've been asked about quite frequently lately when it comes to adding a catcher. There is a major part of me that wants to tell everyone "Yes!" because Coors Field is so damn good to hitters. The problem lies within the fact that away from Coors, much like everyone else, Diaz has proven himself to be but a mere mortal.

On the surface, there's a ton to love. He's got a .329 batting average, a 43.6% hard-hit rate and he strikes out just 20% of the time. In ESPN standard scoring leagues, Diaz is the sixth-ranked catcher. Almost all of the damage he's done, though, has come at home. In his nine home games, Diaz is hitting .429 with two doubles and both of his home runs. In 12 games on the road, he's hitting .262 with three doubles and no home runs.

Overall his home/road splits are going to limit his value moving forward, especially when his .400 BABIP regresses back to around his career .279, although maybe it doesn't get that low. If you want to roster him and play him during weeks where he plays the majority at Coors, I love it. But avoid road games at all costs.

 

Jose Abreu, Houston Astros

For me, the "His 15 home runs in 2022 were just a fluke. He's going to a way better lineup, and his 2023 is going to be way better" facade has worn off. At what point do we just come to terms with the fact that Abreu had himself a good run, but father time has claimed another one? I honestly think we're there.

Dating back to July 1st of 2022, Abreu has hit just six home runs. That's 463 plate appearances. While he has hit .306 with 24 doubles in that same timeframe, it's hard justifying why a guy known for power at a power-hitting position is still worth a roster spot.

His average exit velocity is currently 86.7 MPH, down almost 6% from last season and the lowest of his career. His 6.9% barrel rate, .242 xBA, .367 xSLG, 36.1% hard-hit rate, and 23.8% strikeout rates are also the worst of his career by far as well. Not to mention he's chasing the most pitches of his career at 35.5%. He's not going to go the entire season without hitting a home run, but at this rate, he may not hit more than 10-12 which would be a disappointment.

 

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

Coming into the season Henderson was a rookie of the year frontrunner with flaws. We loved the talent but his inability to hit left-handed pitching was something talked about but not nearly enough, especially in the fantasy baseball world and especially for a guy who’d never hit above .200 against lefties in the minors outside of a 25 AB sample in 2019.

Now in 2023, those flaws have come to light in a major way. He’s hitting just .125 with a .489 OPS against lefties. That isn’t his only major flaw, though. Henderson also lost the ability to hit breaking pitches as well.

104 breaking pitches have been thrown to Henderson across 23 at-bats. He has a whopping .000 batting average off of them and his .091 xBA suggests it’s not bad luck. He also sports a healthy 56.7% whiff rate against them as well. While he may eat against fastballs (.300 BA), the slow breakers are his kryptonite.

He does still have value in fantasy leagues. Dynasty, keeper, AL-only, or 15-team & larger leagues should be rostering Henderson. Other than that, it’s tough to justify. He looks like a guy that needs more time in the minor leagues and when that happens, his fantasy value drops drastically.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF