Buy or Sell - Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 6

May 6, 2019

Kev Mahserejian takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 6. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.

We are just over a month into the fantasy baseball season and it is a prime time to buy in on players whose production could be legit/should be better or hop off a heater before the floors caves in. As we all should know, baseball is a game of ebbs and flows. When there is too much good, expect some bad, and vice-versa.

The phrase Buy or Sell is a bit looser than it typically would be mid-season or closer to fantasy playoff time. The players covered, for the most part, are guys I am either wary of or tentatively interested in. We are walking a fine line here after the first month. Various factors play into good/bad season starts such as tough schedules with rough ballpark (or vice-versa), nagging injuries, poor team performance, and even the weather.

Do not be afraid to send out low-ball "feeler" offers to your league-mates this time of year for underperforming guys. You never know what they will take. Of course, the expectation should be that the offer is declined, but at least a potential conversation could begin. Have secondary players you are willing to throw in the deal, but also know your limits. If your mate if asking for a "stud" in return, make sure you try and upgrade elsewhere to mitigate the hit on your end. Good trades win you leagues, do not forget that. You always want to be as ahead of the curve as possible, and I am here to help with that. Let's take a look at what we've seen thus far.

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Undervalued Players - Week 6

These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.

Michael Chavis (2B/3B, BOS)

52% owned

The Red Sox definitely needed more talented hitters in their lineup...Chavis has been the exact spark this lineup needed. Through the first 14 games of his career, he has six home runs, 12 runs, and 13 RBI. Toss in an average above .300 and two steals to create your ideal waiver wire asset. If he's still available, run and grab him right now (though I doubt it after yesterday's two-homer game).

Chavis is the Red Sox top prospect and will stick in this lineup if he keeps hitting. The steals will be uncommon and the average should dip below .300 eventually but he should still be plenty productive. The Red Sox has a plethora of talented bats around him and with his power, there will be enough homers and RBI to make up for the loss in other categories.

Pablo Lopez (SP, MIA)

8% owned

Probably my favorite young Marlins' pitcher. Lopez has a solid pitch repertoire and interchanges them almost equally. He has gained about one mile-per-hour on each since last season and despite not having too much success yet, the production should come. His peripherals are solid and his WHIP is very good at 1.16. His easiest matchup thus far has arguably been at Cleveland, and he performed very well there. With a great home park and decent upcoming schedule, Lopez is a solid wait-and-see pickup.

Lopez's BABIP is normal, strikeout, home run, and walk rates good, and he generates a ton of groundballs. His 4.78 ERA is likely fueled by a 60 percent LOB rate which is lower than league average. Chalking up bad surface stats to bad luck/defense is always great for those looking to buy. Pick him up if he's available, and maybe trade a throwaway piece for him if an owner does not care enough to hold on.

Nathaniel Lowe (1B, TB)

21% owned

The Rays are so good, and it is in large part due to their youth movement over the past year or so. Nate Lowe is one of their top prospects and was just called up a little over a week ago. Although he has not performed "up to expectations" since his call up, he has not disappointed much either. Lowe had a hit in every game up until Saturday and threw in a couple of runs and an RBI. Not that this should get anyone hot and bothered, but it is a minor positive. What you are banking on with Lowe is great plate discipline with an average hovering around .300 and 20 or so home runs this year. If consistently given the opportunity, he should make the proper adjustments as he gets more comfortable with major league pitching.

Lowe is 23 and provides enough value with his bat to negate his average fielding ability. Luckily, he plays in the AL with the opportunity to DH when necessary. It is possible that Lowe gets platooned against lefties if he struggles down the road, but for now, he will continue to play almost every day. Grab him if he's available, and hope for a productive week soon.

Honorable Mention: Diego Castillo (SP/RP, TB) - 38% owned

He's closing games occasionally and striking a ton of dudes out. In leagues where RPs are capped, his value goes up with the SP eligibility.

Overvalued Players - Week 5

Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag.

Aaron Nola - (SP, PHI)

98% owned

Nola has been pretty, pretty bad for being Aaron Nola. His strikeout rate is down, walk rate is up, and his peripherals aren't much to write home about (above four). Giving up 10 baserunners against the Tigers in five and third innings are not great. Nola's schedule has not been particularly tough and he is struggling. The crazy thing is that one of his best starts came in Colorado. I can not exactly figure out where I stand on Nola as a buy or a sell, but I do know that he is overvalued due to his name and draft position.

If you own him and have been cruising through the season, there's no reason to sell low now. Might as well ride it out and hope he rights the ship. If you're struggling, selling for a more successful, relative commodity might be best. Nola's next start comes at St. Louis, then home against Milwaukee, then back against the Rockies, then at the Cubs, and then at home against St. Louis. I am a LOT less confident starting him in this stretch than I would have been the past two outings against Detroit and Miami.

Blake Treinen (RP, OAK)

98% owned

*I was planning on writing this prior to the recent news that came out in regards to this health concern*

Treinen's elbow has been nagging him this week, and he is going to be evaluated on Monday. I do not like how any of this sounds at all. If I owned him (which I don't because drafting closers is almost always a bad decision), I would be trying to sell for anything I could get before the news comes out on Monday. He has not pitched since last Sunday - this is the reddest flag I have seen this year.

Treinen had a historically great 2018 which was fueled by an increased K-rate, decreased walk rate, and career low BABIP. While Treinen relatively maintained the Ks, his walks have nearly tripled since last season. Negative regression was coming for sure, there was no way he was going to maintain a sub-one ERA. His xFIP and SIERA are closer to five than four (not good) and he's generating far more fly balls than groundballs for the first time in his major league career.

Trade Treinen if you have him, pick up Lou Trivino wherever he's available. Pay up if you have to, just do it.

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