RADIO
Kev Mahserejian takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 20. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.
Today's piece covers a set of players who either should not be available on waivers or will return back there soon. Most of the earlier editions of this recurring buy or sell article have included several universally owned players whose values have been manipulated enough by early-season performances. Unfortunately, as we get deeper into the year, the regression fairies come to ruin every savvy owner's fun.
Nevertheless, there is nothing worse than seeing one of your guys continually underperform. However, if that is the case, eight times out-of-ten it is most prudent to hold on until they at least get hot to then sell. Contrarily, do not buy high, unless it is in your best interest to win now and that player fills a particular need. These rules can be broken as we get down the stretch of the season and every win matters. If you need a win in H2H or a particular category filled in rotisserie, buy or sell what you must to get to where you need. The home stretch is dark and full of terrors. Injured and underperforming players can be let go if they are taking up a roster spot that could be filled by someone much more productive. Evaluate wisely.
Anyway, these buys and sells are where your focus should be for this upcoming week. Best of luck dealing.
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Undervalued Players - Week 20
These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.
Anthony DeSclafani - SP, CIN
25% owned
For those of you unaware, Anthony DeSclafani is also known as Tony Disco, possibly the best nickname in all of baseball. He is a folk hero who deserves some attention going forward, partly because of how he's been pitching recently, and also because of his upcoming schedule. Very plainly, his next few matchups are (in order) against the Nationals, Cardinals, Pirates, Marlins, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Mariners. None of these teams are in the top half of the league (Nationals on the fringe) against RHP.
Since his last blow-up outing on June 23rd, Disco's ERA is 3.23 and his xFIP is a solid 3.99. He's striking out more than a batter per inning and has had to face some pretty rough offenses in this stretch. With this coming schedule, it's possible that he takes an even bigger step forward this season and lowers his ERA further while providing strikeouts and even some wins. This coming outing against the Nationals could get rough given the talent at the top of the lineup, but it's smooth sailing afterward. The only thing that might get in his way is the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. Take a chance on Tony Disco, he could be a valuable back-end bench SP for your playoff run.
Nick Anderson - RP, TB
17% owned
Nick Anderson won't get you many saves right now, but what he is doing is still incredible. It feels as if every game Anderson has pitched over the past month has just repeated the same line. One inning, two strikeouts, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP. It's Groundhog's Day every time he touches the ball. The Rays loved him (and Trevor Richards) enough to trade one of their top hitting prospects and it seems as if they are getting some immediate return for that value.
Anderson is Hader-ing from 2018 since getting traded. The underlying numbers are legitimately absurd even since last month (albeit small sample size). The Rays are savants when it comes to pitching and might have tweaked Anderson to become even better. His ERA on the year is about a full run higher than his xFIP/SIERA. He's a pickup in almost every league but could be best in roto. 10-teamers should even grab him for the ratio/strikeout boost.
Seth Lugo - RP, NYM
35% owned
With Edwin Diaz struggling this season, there is an opportunity for Seth Lugo to steal some saves the rest of the way. Lugo has by far been the Mets' best reliever and arguably one of the best in all of baseball in 2019. On Saturday night, manager Mickey Callaway allowed Lugo to pitch the ninth even after giving up a game-tying run in the eighth.
Lugo is likely not going to close too many games (mainly due to the fact that he goes more than one inning occasionally), but even then, he provides enough value with his ratios and strikeouts to boost your roster.
Overvalued Players - Week 20
Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag and could even be dropped if they have not produced enough.
Aristides Aquino - OF, CIN
54% owned
The power in Aquino is legit. His Statcast numbers are bananas as he is crushing balls at speeds above 118 MPH. However, he is unfortunately not going to be hitting a home run every game going forward. The regression fairies will come to bite as they do with all. If your trade deadline has not yet passed, do everything you can to move AA.
Aside from the ridiculous ISO and BABIP he currently holds (both above .500), regression will come by the way of strikeouts as well. There are holes in Aquino's swing that opposing pitchers will take advantage of as more major league film comes out on him. This heater could last another week or two, but with the playoffs coming up, you do not want to feel the need to hold onto someone slumping just because of what they provided for a stretch of games.
Danny Santana - UTIL, TEX
77% owned
Danny Santana has been a useful fantasy asset in 2019. His all-category production from the waiver wire is a welcome addition to any roster. Unfortunately, his .385~ BABIP and .260~ ISO are much higher than they should be for the rest of the season. He doesn't have much name value but could be sold off as a secondary piece in a deal for a better player.
Santana should provide decent value in leagues for the rest of the year, but with Joey Gallo out of the lineup, there has been a significant drop-off in the Rangers' offense as a whole which could hurt Santana's run/RBI numbers.
