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Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 9

Rookies are always tricky to evaluate because they can look great one week and then completely fall apart the next. With some big name call-ups sticking around, what can we make of their initial success? More importantly, we need to figure out if these players are best used as keepers or trade bait.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should pursue. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

I will include one player at each key position group (Infield, Outfield, Pitcher). Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Underrated Players - Week 9

Ian Happ (2B/OF, CHC) - 42% owned

Happ was thought to only stick around for a couple of days while the Cubs sorted out injuries in their infield, but low and behold he's still here. He owns a slash line of .268/.375/.561 with two home runs and five RBI in 41 at-bats. The 33.3% K% is a bit concerning, but his minor league averages are a full 10 points lower so the strikeouts should reduce with time and experience. He has shown a good eye by walking 14.6% of the time.

Happ is in a great situation to drive in and score runs in the Chicago lineup, but the most encouraging thing is that he's been batting fourth or fifth nearly every game. We're not talking about a rookie who is filling a void in the eighth spot for a team lacking better options. Happ has a legit opportunity to stick in the most favorable of positions for fantasy opportunity. He needs to be owned in the majority of mixed leagues by now.

Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT) - 80% owned

Giving up on a young, budding star two months into the season isn't a wise thing to do. I've seen people selling low and even dropping Polanco in competitive leagues out of sheer frustration. It's downright shocking to think that someone who was a consensus top-20 outfielder worth a fifth or sixth round pick this year isn't even owned in 1/5 of leagues right now.

Polanco came off the 10-day DL in the minimum allotted time and then smacked a home run in his first game back on Friday. He's not a 40-HR talent, nor is he necessarily a 20/20 guy, but if he stays healthy the rest of the way, you should be looking at 20+ homers, 80+ RBI and double-digit steals easily. If someone in your league is willing to part ways cheaply, then strike now before he starts heating up.

Jose Berrios (SP, MIN) - 80% owned

How can a player who was the hottest waiver add of the last two weeks be underrated? Berrios went from a virtually non-existent ownership level (outside of a few deep keeper leagues) to being owned in as many leagues as Gregory Polanco. Three wins in three games and 22 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings will do that. Berrios was a hot name last year around this time too, but it didn't go over nearly as well with an atrocious 8.04 ERA and 5.4 BB/9 over 14 starts.

This time it looks like he's figured things out and last year's line in the majors is a major outlier in his profile, as he traditionally walks less than the league average. This might be a good time to swing a deal for Berrios because he gave up three homers in his last start against Baltimore. Other owners might think to sell high before he invariably implodes, but that doesn't seem likely to happen.

 

Overrated Players - Week 9

Trevor Story (SS, COL) - 91% owned

This might come back to bite me, as it did last preseason when I predicted Trevor Story would be a spring training wonder only... Story came off the DL and homered in his second game back on Thursday, which was a huge relief for his disgruntled owners. The buy-low window on Story is closed now that he's back on the field, but in my opinion he isn't worth buying at all.

We know he's going to strike out a ton (32.2% K% with Colorado) but we're perfectly fine with that if he's mashing 30 home runs. The problem is that he's still hitting .190 on the year and must prove he can get up to speed with his averages to compete with the likes of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, or Corey Seager. If I'm looking for an elite SS that I'd have to pay a pretty penny for in a money league, I'll take any of those three first.

Jose Bautista (OF, TOR) - 93% owned

Are we finally seeing the return of Joey Bats? Bautista went deep again on Saturday, giving him nine on the season. He's approaching the top-10 HR rank among outfielders, but his average still sits at .237. Bautista may have a good run coming, but when it's all said and done he will probably still finish with disappointing totals.

We can't ignore the fact that his strikeout rate has risen the last three season, up to 24.9% this year. If anything, he's actually bound for a dip in his .284 BABIP that's 17 points higher than his career mark, so the AVG could get worse. Finally, his 31.5% hard contact rate is also down, which is never a good sign for a slugger. If you already own him, you probably won't get enough return on value to flip him unless there's still someone out there that believes he will return to the glory days at age 36.

Masahiro Tanaka (SP, NYY) - 94% owned

I'm giving up. Tanaka should have been one of the safest, most predictable SP picks in 2017 drafts. Some reputable baseball analysts in the national media even made him their preseason Cy Young pick. It took one Opening Day start to squash those dreams, as he lasted just 2 2/3 innings, allowing two home runs against the not-so-vaunted Tampa Bay lineup. It simply hasn't gotten better ever since then.

Other than a complete game gem against the Red Sox, Tanaka has been getting pounded. Just in the last two weeks, he gave up six runs to Houston and then eight to his new nemesis Tampa. A 3.87 SIERA suggests Tanaka is pitching far better than his ratios look and his plate discipline stats don't look much different than the last couple of years. The problem that won't go away is the long ball. Tanaka has given up 13 HR this season and he plays in one of the most hitter-friendly parks, just three-hundredths of a point behind Chase Field in ballpark factor for home runs. For a pitcher who doesn't strike out a ton of batters, there may not be enough upside to chase if he is going to keep walking hitters at a higher rate and letting the ball leave the yard. Don't give up on him completely if you already own him, but don't go chasing him in the trade market either.

 

More Risers and Fallers

 

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
Davante Adams

Not Dealing With a Serious Injury
Brandon Miller

Unavailable on Monday
Kyler Murray

Surgery Not on the Table for Kyler Murray
Duncan Robinson

Absent Against Atlanta
Marvin Harrison Jr.

in Danger of Missing Week 14?
Jalen Duren

Back in the Lineup on Monday Evening
Noah Clowney

Cleared to Play Versus Charlotte
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Active On Monday
Danila Yurov

Won't Play on Tuesday
Michael Porter Jr.

Back in Action on Monday
Sam Merrill

Unavailable Versus Pacers
David Pastrnak

to Remain Out Tuesday
Alexandre Sarr

Won't Play Versus Milwaukee
Adam Gaudette

Iffy for Monday
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
Logan Cooley

a Game-Time Decision Monday
Josh Norris

Available Monday
Neal Pionk

Remains Out Monday
Lonzo Ball

Ruled Out on Monday
Jimmy Snuggerud

to Miss Six Weeks After Wrist Surgery
Justin Herbert

Having Hand Surgery on Monday
Steven Adams

Out Against Jazz
Kyler Murray

Cardinals Won't Open Kyler Murray's Practice Window This Week
Darius Garland

Unavailable Monday
Sauce Gardner

Not a Candidate to Go on Injured Reserve
Kristaps Porzingis

Out of Action Versus Pistons
Jayden Daniels

Not Cleared for Contact, Decision on Week 14 Status Delayed
Daniel Gafford

Sidelined Again on Monday
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful to Return in Week 14
Tee Higgins

Still in the Concussion Protocol
Drake London

"has a Chance" to Play in Week 14
J.J. McCarthy

in Line to Start in Week 14?
Aaron Jones Sr.

Not Dealing With Serious Shoulder Injury, Likely Day-to-Day
Sam Darnold

Dealing With Ankle Injury, "Should be Good" for Week 14
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
Sauce Gardner

Officially Week-to-Week with Strained Calf
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
Justin Herbert

Has Metacarpal Fracture in Left Hand
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Week 14 Availability Up in the Air
VEG

Carter Hart Expected to Make Golden Knights Debut Tuesday
Andre Drummond

Leaves Early, Status Now in Question
Pyotr Kochetkov

Remains Without Timeline For Return
Boone Jenner

Close to Returning
Tre Mann

Uncertain for Monday's Game Against Nets
Lian Bichsel

Exits With Injury Sunday
Deandre Ayton

Leaves Game With Knee Soreness
Petr Mrazek

Injured in Sunday's Loss
Adam Fox

Placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve
Brandon Williams

Questionable With Adductor Issue
P.J. Washington

Uncertain For Monday's Contest
Daniel Gafford

Expected To Miss Second Straight Game
Zach Ertz

Leads Washington in Receiving in Overtime Loss
James Cook

Handles Career-High 32 Carries for 144 Yards in Win
Egor Demin

Available Against Hornets
Justin Herbert

Planning to Play Through Broken Bone in Left Hand in Week 14
Terance Mann

in Danger of Missing Monday's Game
Sauce Gardner

Likely to Miss a "Couple of Weeks" With Calf Strain
Brock Bowers

Records Two Touchdown Grabs in Week 13
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
CFB

Florida Poised to Land Jon Sumrall as Next Head Coach
CFB

Alex Golesh Taking Over Auburn Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Joel Hofer

Shuts Out Mammoth
Owen Tippett

Amasses Three Points in Saturday's Win
Stuart Skinner

Bounces Back With Shutout
Brock Nelson

Notches Four Points in Big Win
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Sustains Upper-Body Injury
Logan Cooley

Hurt in Saturday's Loss
Warren Foegele

Not Ready to Return Saturday
Simon Benoit

Won't Play Saturday
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract
Josh Hader

Says his Shoulder is "Back to Normal"
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks "Actively Listening" on Ketel Marte

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