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Kev Mahserejian takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 5. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.
We are just over a month into the fantasy baseball season and it is a prime time to buy in on players whose production could be legit/should be better or hop off a heater before the floors caves in. As we all should know, baseball is a game of ebbs and flows. When there is too much good, expect some bad, and vice-versa.
The phrase Buy or sell is a bit looser than it typically would be mid-season or closer to fantasy playoff time. The players covered, for the most part, are guys I am either wary of or tentatively interested in. We are walking a fine line here after the first month. Various factors play into good/bad season starts such as tough schedules with rough ballpark (or vice-versa), nagging injuries, poor team performance, and even the weather.
Do not be afraid to send out low-ball "feeler" offers to your league-mates this time of year for underperforming guys. You never know what they will take. Of course, the expectation should be that the offer is declined, but at least a potential conversation could begin. Have secondary players you are willing to throw in the deal, but also know your limits. If your mate if asking for a "stud" in return, make sure you try and upgrade elsewhere to mitigate the hit on your end. Good trades win you leagues, do not forget that. You always want to be as ahead of the curve as possible, and I am here to help with that. Let's take a look at what we've seen thus far.
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Undervalued Players - Week 5
These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value.
Justin Turner - (3B, LAD)
89% owned
Justin Turner is such a boring draft pick, but you are not giving up on him after a rough month. Turner is a top-120 player because he is consistent and safe. The only real flaw to his profile is health, but the injuries have never been chronic issues. Despite only producing nine runs and RBI through 27 games, Turner is hitting pretty well. His batting average is fine at around .270 and his walk-to-strikeout rate is only slightly down from last season.
Turner's making contact, good contact too; the ball just keeps going to the farthest part of the field, center. His hard-hit percentage is up but his opposite field and pull rates are down. The power is coming sooner than later and owners should be patient.
For those who do not own Turner, go buy him for a pitcher, reliever or some other useless player on your roster. He's still a top-50 hitter by all means. The Dodgers roster is better than ever and there will continue to be plenty of opportunities for Turner to rack up counting stats soon.
Tommy La Stella- (2B/3B, LAA)
30% owned
This one is out of nowhere. Tommy La Stella has seven home runs through 25 games. That is more than he's put up during his past two seasons combined. He leads the league in strikeout rate and is walking around twice per each K. He's batting .250 with a .183 BABIP. He also has 14 runs and 16 RBI on the season. This could be one of those weird April overreactions to hot streaks, or it could be a brand new Tommy La Stella.
La Stella was an occasional starter back in Chicago but is now receiving nearly full-time action in Anaheim. The leading cause of his home run surge is his increased launch angle and barrel percentage. La Stella is making very good, hard contact and hitting far more fly balls than he ever has.
Of course, there is a little bit of luck in play, but if he keeps this up, there is no reason to believe that he cannot crack 20 HRs this season. With the elite batting eye, La Stella is viable in all formats (ideally 12-plus teamers) and could be a season-long hold if he keeps this up to some extent.
Noah Syndergaard- (SP, NYM)
99% owned
In honor of Avengers: Endgame's release this weekend, I wanted to highlight this guy especially...the time to buy Thor is NOW. No pitcher in the league has been unluckier than him. The guy has not had a single cakewalk matchup all year, and unfortunately, it has resulted in brutal outing after brutal outing. His velocity is fine, strikeouts are fine, and walks are fine. The main culprits are matchups and some luck. Just over half of Thor's baserunners get left on (league average is roughly 75 percent) and his BABIP and home runs per fly ball are higher than usual.
An underlying issue may be his pitch mix. His sinker is being utilized less than it has been the past two seasons and vice versa for his four-seam fastball. There are adjustments that can be made here to return his game to Valhalla *boooooooooooooooooooo*.
There might be owners in some leagues that have contemplated rage-dropping him and that is where you come in to offer up a freshly packaged Robinson Cano or something. In three of Syndergaard's next five starts, he faces Miami, San Diego, and San Francisco. If he can not get back on track after this stretch, then I will be massively concerned.
Overvalued Players - Week 5
These players should be on your trading block as long as you aren't getting a minimal return on the initial investment.
Joey Gallo - (1B/OF, TEX)
89% owned
Joey Gallo is hitting the ball hard as HELL. Fangraphs ran a really good piece on exactly how absurd his recent hot stretch has been (see here). To give a quick gist, his slugging numbers should be better than they actually are, but the fact of the matter is that his hot start might just be that. There is no indication in his profile that significant enough changes have been made that would change our assumptions on him.
Despite hitting a career-best .260 this season, he is doing it with a BABIP .100 points higher than his career average and a similar strikeout rate. The walks have jumped up quite a bit which should keep OBP owners happy, but, unless he stops hitting so many groundballs (or stops pulling the ball so damn much), his average should regress back to the low .200's eventually. That is not a fun ride for owners in standard leagues. Sell him while he's hot because he is almost un-ownable at times when he is cold.
Tim Anderson - (SS, CWS)
87% owned
Look, I like Tim Anderson "the person" a LOT. Those bat flips (tosses?) are incredible and make for a more entertaining game. However, Tim Anderson "the player" is not THIS incredible. Good news is that Anderson's contact percentage has increased incrementally through his first four seasons and his swinging-strike rate is at a career low.
These factors, in the sample size available, certainly indicates that his average should be above his career norm this season. Unfortunately, his BABIP is .462 and his walk rate is pretty close to mine. His power and speed are legit for sure. Anderson is a former first-round pick after all, not some scrub who woke up on a heater. My main concern with the speed is that it will be hard to utilize when he is not getting on base as often as he has been of late.
OBP-league owners should be looking to get any underperforming stud they can for Timmy. Roto/standard league owners could stay on for the ride and hope the average regresses to just under .300, but that is unlikely given who he is. Anderson could very well produce a 25 HR/35 steal season though, which would justify holding on.
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